In a week where hot weather led to UK train cancellations, Vistry (LSE:VTY) delivered its own scorcher – a £30m loss in H1. The stock fell 12% on the news – and I added to my investment.

Losing money?!

What caused the loss? Completions fell to approximately 6,100 from 6,889, discounts on private sales grew from 1.4% to 7.1%, and roughly £50m of profit was sacrificed to “cash generation actions“. 

That, however, is kind of the point. New CEO Adam Daniels has taken over the company during a tough situation and is plotting a route out.

The issue is the firm’s balance sheet. A cyclical downturn isn’t a problem by itself, but it matters for Vistry because of the amount of debt it has. 

As a result, the new CEO is focusing on strengthening the firm’s financial position. And that involves trading H1 profit for near-term cash.

I think it’s the right move. And there are signs of genuine progress being made.

2026: a transition year

It looks as though 2026 is set to be a(nother) transition year for Vistry. But in terms of the balance sheet, the first half of the year had some encouraging signs.

• Unsold private work-in-progress halved from about £600m to under £300m, with £190m of that arriving as cash on H2 completions.
• Land creditors were reduced by over £150m.
• Part Exchange — which has quietly tied up an average of £50m of debt for years — has been substantially exited.
• The Voluntary Exit Scheme should deliver around £25m of annual overhead savings, with the full benefit in 2027.

Average daily net debt for H1 was £799m. But by the end of the period, it had fallen to £470m.

More than that, the firm is aiming for average daily net debt to be below £650m in H2. And – crucially – it’s aiming for a net cash position of over £100m by the end of the year.

If it can get there, that would mark a huge improvement in the business. But I haven’t just been buying the stock because I think the company is going from bad to average.

The SAHP catalyst

Vistry’s partner-funded sales were weak in H1. That’s because of a gap between government funding programmes.

Grant allocations under the Strategic Affordable Housing Programme (SAHP) are expected in September. And I think the firm is in a unique position to benefit. 

The majority of Vistry’s H1 completions were affordable homes. And its existing relationships should put it in a very strong position for the £39bn SAHP programme.

Unlike other publicly listed builders, Vistry is listed as a Strategic Partner of Homes England. I think that means there are opportunities coming – the only question is when.

The government has put housebuilding at the front of its plans for this Parliament. And despite its recent challenges, I think the company is still in a hugely advantageous position.

The squeeze potential

Vistry is the UK’s most heavily shorted stock. That’s not a long-term view and the bears have been proved right so far. 

That, however, could turn around quickly. If the SAHP allocations land in September and the firm hits its cash targets, it could be those betting against the company that start to feel the heat.

Should you invest £5,000 in Vistry Group Plc right now?

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The affordable housing specialist just can’t catch a break, in fact. It’s slumped another 7% today (Wednesday, 8 July) after another shocking trading update.

I don’t own Vistry shares. But I do love buying quality stocks then they slump in price and trade on rock-bottom valuations. So I’m asking: is now the time to buy this beaten-up FTSE 250 stock for my portfolio?

Profit warning

The housing market’s fragile recovery at the end of 2025 and start of 2026 has been truly demolished. Home sales have weakened sharply, reflecting the unfavourable impact of the Iran war on mortgage lending rates.

Yet, Vistry has performed especially badly, and today shocked the market with a profit warning. It’s now tipping an adjusted pre-tax loss of £30m for the six months to June. It had the market’s card marked in May when it predicted “significantly lower” profits from the £80.6m profit in the same 2025 period. But today’s result was much worse than feared.

For the full year, pre-tax profits are now tipped at £200m, down from May’s forecast of £223m.

So what’s gone wrong? On the positive side, average weekly sales rates are up, increasing 2% over the first half. The problem is Vistry’s having to slice prices to offload its properties. Discounts on private sales leapt to 7.1% from 1.4% last year.

Completions fell 12% to roughly 6,100 homes. Meanwhile, the order book slumped 9% to £3.9bn. And worryingly, Vistry warned that

We are not anticipating a significant change in open market conditions in [the second half], or in early 2027.

Vistry: cheap as chips

Like many investors, I buy stocks with a long-term view in mind. So if Vistry shares look good over an extended horizon (like five years), I’d be tempted to buy. And especially given how cheap they currently are.

Following today’s slump, the FTSE 250 share trades on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 7 times. That’s less than half the 10-year average of around 15. Meanwhile, its price-to-book (P/B) ratio has toppled to 0.2, below historical levels of 1.

But here’s the thing. I think profits for all housebuilders could rise strongly as the UK’s population grows, driving demand for new homes. Yet, I’m also worried that Vistry’s focus on affordable housing — traditionally a more stable part of the market — isn’t keeping earnings afloat. It suggests there could be deep-seated problems that new chief executive Adam Daniels may struggle to fix.

I’m also discouraged by ongoing boardroom turmoil at the company. Today it was announced chief financial officer Tim Lawlor will be following old CEO Greg Fitzgerald out the door in October. It adds further uncertainty going forwards, not to mention the sense that all’s not well.

Is this FTSE 250 share a buy?

For more risk-tolerant investors, buying this beaten-down FTSE 250 share could prove a masterstroke over time. But for me, it offers too much risk. I’d rather find other cheap stocks to buy for my ISA or SIPP.

Should you invest £5,000 in Vistry Group Plc right now?

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Because the favourite to land the top job, Andy Burnham, wants to see “the biggest generation of council house building since the second world war”. Could this help reverse the decline in Vistry’s share price? Let’s see.

A massive problem

Successive governments (of all colours) have failed to deliver enough homes. According to the Centre for Policy Studies, the country needs another 6.5m of them. Indeed, Savills claims the current government’s likely to fall 40% short of its target to build 1.5m homes during the course of this parliament. So why should PM Burnham be any different?

Well, in Manchester last year, housing completions were at a 15-year high. He’s also an advocate of social properties that are cheaper to rent and run. Burnham sees this as the answer to the cost-of-living crisis. In September 2025, he said the government should borrow another £40bn for housebuilding. Clearly, Burnham’s a big believer in social and affordable housing.

So?

And I think Vistry Group could be a big winner from this. In 2025, it reported 15,658 completions. Of these, 74% were built in conjunction with its local authority, housing association, and private rented sector partners.

A larger proportion of social properties means the group should achieve a higher return on capital employed (ROCE) than its rivals, who focus more on private housing.

Vistry’s partnership model helps avoid the need to have lots of cash tied-up in land. And the receipt of stage payments means its working capital requirements are lower. Indeed, in 2025, it reported a ROCE of 13.9% compared to, for example, Persimmon’s 11.7%.

However, I think it should be doing better than this. In fact, it’s ROCE’s been going in the wrong direction since the pandemic:

• 2025 – 14%
• 2024 – 15%
• 2023 – 21%
• 2022 – 25%
• 2021 – 26%

Like all in the housing sector, it’s been affected by falling disposable incomes and construction cost inflation.

Also, the group’s gained an unfortunate reputation for getting its sums wrong. In late 2024, it reported that it had underestimated the final build costs for a small number of its developments. Since then, its share price has crashed 80%.

A brighter future?

However, as disappointing as the trend in its ROCE might be, I think Vistry has great potential, if it can get its act together and rebuild investor confidence. But it might take a while.

The group says activity is “subdued” as the industry transitions from the current Social Affordable Housing Programme (SAHP) to the next one that runs until 2036. However, it says the new £39bn programme should “drive a step up in demand” from the end of 2026 onwards.

Over the medium term, the company reckons it can build 20,000 home a year and is targetting a ROCE of 40%.

Who knows, with a new occupant in Number 10, there could be a return to a 1960s-style era of housebuilding. But irrespective of what a new Prime Minister might announce, the chronic housing shortage remains an issue that the existing SAHP is seeking to address.

On this basis, I believe Vistry remains a long-term stock to consider.

Should you invest £5,000 in Vistry Group Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Vistry Group Plc made the list?

James Beard owns shares in Persimmon plc.

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Keir Starmer has resigned and Andy Burnham is the current favourite to take over. But what could that mean for the FTSE 250 stocks in my portfolio?

Vistry: same model, different tenants

Vistry (LSE:VTY) has been a horrendous stock recently. The debt on the firm’s balance sheet means it’s been struggling more than other UK housebuilders.

The big positive is the £39bn Social and Affordable Homes Programme (SAHP), which runs until 2036. The firm’s existing partnerships put it in a strong position.

Source: Company Website

There’s speculation that a Burnham government might tilt the SAHP away from the private sector and towards traditional social housing. Does that matter for Vistry?

I think it’s neutral at worst. The group has Strategic Partner-Plus status with Homes England through its Hestia joint venture.

No other listed UK builder has that central role. And with a forward order book of around £4bn, Vistry is well placed to play a major role in a revised SAHP.

A shift in the tenancies doesn’t change who holds the shovel. Whether it’s the private sector or housing associations, I think the FTSE 250 company is still in a strong position.

JD Wetherspoon: careful what you wish for

A Burnham government pledging to ease employer costs might look like good news for JD Wetherspoon (LSE:JDW) shareholders. And I think the stock market might see it as such. 

The company says October’s National Insurance rise is set to cost around £60m a year. But I’m not convinced relief would be unambiguously good.

It’s definitely tough in the hospitality industry. But JD Wetherspoon has consistently outperformed the field (at least, according to the CGA RSM Hospitality Business Tracker).

That’s mostly because its pints are typically around 33% cheaper than elsewhere. And the scale benefits that support this are a durable competitive strength.

Lower employer NI would reduce pressure on rivals that have been raising prices or closing entirely. And I think that would probably level the playing field.

In the short term, it might mean better margins. But I’m not convinced that more competition where JD Wetherspoon has been winning is what its shareholders should be hoping for.

The shared risk worth naming

Both Vistry and JD Wetherspoon face a scenario investors should keep in mind. It’s the downside of more employment and higher wages.

These are good for housing demand and pub traffic. But they also push up input costs.

Vistry has already flagged inflationary pressures. And JD Wetherspoon runs tighter margins than most of its rivals.

A more stimulative government that reignites wage inflation would be tough for both. So there’s a lot to think about.

My view

Whether it’s Burnham or anyone else, I want to own shares in businesses with enduring strengths. And nothing on that front has changed my mind this week.

Changes in government policy could have an impact on Vistry and JD Wetherspoon. But the smart investor backs long-term quality over short-term noise.

I think both Vistry and JD Wetherspoon have enduring competitive strengths. And that’s why I’m likely to keep buying both, regardless of who’s running the country.

The post What could an Andy Burnham government mean for these FTSE 250 stocks? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Vistry Group (LSE:VTY) and Compass Group (LSE:CPG) are two stocks I suspect could receive a boost. Why? Their profits could grow if the bookies’ favourite for new Labour leader succeeds.

Let me explain how.

Social housing

Vistry is one of the UK’s largest housebuilders. But unlike its peers, it no longer relies on selling homes to private buyers. Instead, it focuses on a partnership model providing affordable and social housing and works with local authorities and housing associations to deliver new homes.

This could be critical, given Andy Burnham’s views on solving Britain’s housing shortage. Just this month he confidently stated

what fixes the housing crisis? I would say it’s council homes.

This could be significant for Vistry, given its expertise and robust relationships in this field. Some of the potential boosts could include:

• Greater long-term contracts for earnings stability and visibility.
• Less dependence on the more volatile private homes segment.
• Faster build rates, as construction doesn’t need to match private market conditions.
• More protection from an overhaul on Council Tax and Stamp Duty that impacts private homebuyers.

So would Burnham as PM make Vistry a ‘no brainer’ buy? Not necessarily. With social housing delivering lower margins than private sector homes, the FTSE 250 firm could underperform its rivals during market upturns. Yet it’s still a top stock to consider if Labour’s new MP for Makerfield steps into Number 10.

A FTSE 100 winner?

Andy Burnham has been less explicit on his plans for public sector spending. However, it’s expected that Britain’s potential next PM could raise taxes on wealthier individuals to put money into areas like education and health.

This could in turn be a big boost for Compass Group. Why? This FTSE 100 share is one of the world’s largest providers of catering and support services to schools and hospitals, alongside defence sites, care homes and other publicly-funded organisations.

Like Vistry and social housing, Compass is deeply embedded in the sectors it serves. It provides food and facilities management in more than 2,000 schools, universities and other educational institutions, for instance, and more than 50% of the UK’s defence estate.

Higher government spending would certainly give Compass’s dividend policy a healthy lift. How so? The company operates under long-term contracts that generate stable recurring revenues. This has, excluding pandemic-hit 2020, supported consistent annual dividend growth this century. A better-funded public sector would further reinforce those impressive cash flows.

To be clear, Burnham isn’t Prime Minister yet and hasn’t disclosed specific plans that might boost the FTSE firm’s earnings. It could also face significant competition for contracts that impact its future opportunities. That said, I still believe it could receive a big boost under potential PM Burnham.

Should you invest £5,000 in Compass Group Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

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Let’s take a closer look.

What’s the story?

In September 2024, Vistry Group (LSE:VTY) was very bullish. It said it was expecting a “year-on-year increase in profits”. Unfortunately, in October 2024, the company had to disclose that one of its divisions had underestimated total build costs by around 10%. The impact? A hit of £80m to its expected 2024 adjusted profit before tax (PBT), which was revised downwards to £350m.

Worse still, a month later, following an internal review the group said it had got its sums wrong again. Another £25m was knocked-off forecast earnings.

And then, on Christmas Eve, the group announced “delays to expected year-end transactions and completions”. It said net debt was now going to be around £200m, compared to a neutral position previously forecast.

The same month, it was relegated from the FTSE 100.

Fast forward to 2026. In April, the group’s new chief executive took up his role. As they say, a new broom sweeps clean.

What now?

Indeed, last month (13 May), the group announced an increase in its sales rate and reported “excellent progress” in meetings its financial objectives. However, it also said “the use of increased incentives and discounts” had been higher than anticipated. It cautioned that it now expects its 2026 adjusted PBT to be in the mid-range of analysts’ forecasts (£168m-£283m).

This is disappointing for shareholders in a group that, I believe, should be doing so much better due to its emphasis on affordable homes. Unlike its rivals that focus more on private housing, Vistry partners with local authorities, housing associations, and private rented sector bodies, to build affordable properties (around two-thirds of its completions). These third parties often provide stage payments to help fund the build, meaning the group has less working capital requirements. And its partners usually own the land.

However, the group said activity is “relatively subdued” as the industry transitions between different phases of the government’s Social Affordable Housing Programme (SAHP). But this should be a temporary blip.

The outcome of bids for money from the 2026-2036 scheme will be known shortly. The group’s expecting a “step up in demand… towards the end of 2026 and into 2027”. This means it could be a good time to consider the stock.

After all, how much more bad news could there be?

My view

Admittedly, the full inflationary impact of the four-month-long closure of the Strait of Hormuz is not yet known. And the housing market is notoriously cyclical with borrowing costs being the biggest factor influencing demand.

However, I suspect the worst is behind the group. I bet those spreadsheets have been triple-checked by Vistry’s new management team. And if I was a director of the company, I would err on the side of caution when issuing any forecasts.

At a macro level, politicians are always taking about building more affordable housing. That’s what the SAHP is all about. Everybody seems to agree there’s a shortage in the country.

On balance, despite the obvious risks surrounding the housing market, I think it’s a long-term stock to consider.

Should you invest £5,000 in Vistry Group Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Vistry Group Plc made the list?

James Beard does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned.

The post Down 81% in 2 years, is this beaten-down FTSE 250 stock now in bargain territory? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Beaten-down stocks can make for compelling buying opportunities. But they can also be falling knives. So which is it here?

Vistry: a business in genuine distress

Vistry’s implosion began in October 2024 when the group revealed a £115m cost underestimation in its Southern division. It was a bombshell discovery that shattered investor confidence in management’s numbers. The share price has so far never recovered, and 2026 has only brought fresh pain.

The most recent trading update confirmed that first-half profits will be “significantly lower than the prior year”.

The reason? A glut of completed Open Market homes that management is being forced to sell at heavy discounts to shift inventory and raise cash. The share buyback has been paused, and the focus is now squarely on debt reduction.

The business isn’t entirely without merit. The forward order book stands at £4.5bn, the government’s 1.5 million homes target provides a structural tailwind, and management expects the second half to recover as partner revenues from the new Social Affordable Housing Programme accelerate.

At the same time, a new CEO, Adam Daniels, is conducting an operational review with findings due at the September interim results. And while this may reveal more skeletons lurking in the closet, it could also potentially be the key turning point that investors have been waiting for.

The bear case however, is hard to dismiss. Analysts are projecting adjusted pre-tax profits to land between £168m and £283m. That’s a massive gap and reflects just how uncertain the profit profile looks, especially now with the unknown impact of expected inflation from the conflict in the Middle East.

Future: disruption with no clear resolution date

Future’s share price has been dragged down by a structural problem: the business remains significantly reliant on Google search traffic to drive programmatic advertising and eCommerce affiliate revenue, both of which are currently being disrupted by AI.

In the first half of 2026, revenue fell 8% and adjusted EBITDA dropped 24%, with eCommerce affiliate revenue down a painful 24% organically. At the same time, reported pre-tax profits collapsed from £56.6m to just £18.4m.

To be fair, management isn’t standing still. Its AI visibility product Future Optic has already booked £10m for the full year, and its Google-zero strategy of building direct audience relationships through newsletters, events, and subscriptions is making early progress.

But with £314m in net debt, leverage on the rise, and revenue still declining across most divisions, the path to recovery requires multiple things going right simultaneously.

So what’s the verdict?

Both businesses have real qualities and genuine recovery potential. But both also carry risks that aren’t fully resolved yet. And in all honesty, it’s simply too soon to tell whether Future can adapt to an AI-first world or Vistry withstand rising costs.

That’s why, for investors seeking beaten-down UK shares with a cleaner risk-to-reward profile, there are likely more compelling opportunities to explore elsewhere right now.

Should you invest £5,000 in Future Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Future Plc made the list?

Zaven Boyrazian does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.

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Two of the biggest laggards are housebuilders Persimmon (LSE:PSN) and Vistry Group (LSE:VTY), which are down roughly 16.4% and 55.6% over the same period. Persimmon even started to stage a comeback in early 2026 before tumbling again in March.

So, what’s going on? Could these UK shares be gearing up for a stellar comeback, or are they value traps?

Why these builders are hurting

Both businesses have been battling the same brutal backdrop:

1. Higher mortgage rates.
2. Wobbly buyer confidence.
3. Political uncertainty.

Despite what the share price suggests, Persimmon has actually been delivering some decent numbers.

Full‑year 2025 revenue jumped to about £3.8bn, driven by a 12% rise in completions to 11,905 homes and a 4% increase in average selling prices. Profits beat market expectations, and early 2026 sales rates and forward orders are ahead of last year.

The snag? Higher financing costs, a big step-up in land spending, and concerns that margins are still a shadow of what they were a decade ago have all kept sentiment in check.

Vistry has its own issues: 2025 adjusted profit before tax edged up to around £269m, but revenue slipped 4%, and completions fell 9% as the market conditions remained tough. In fact, management has warned that 2026 margins will be lower on the back of targeting price cuts to spark higher interest from home buyers.

That profit warning saw the shares slump. And with Vistry shares now trading close to a 52-week low, it’s clear investor confidence has taken a hit.

But are these all just short-term problems?

Could a rebound be brewing?

Persimmon’s latest guidance points to a 2026 completions range of 12,000–12,500 alongside further profit progress. Although this is dependent on what happens with the Iran conflict and its impact on interest rates, as well as inflation.

Nevertheless, forward sales are up, build cost inflation currently looks more stable, and there’s still a structural shortage of housing in the UK, creating a powerful long-term tailwind.

Vistry’s story is more about strategy. It’s pivoting hard towards partnerships and affordable housing, where it works with housing associations and the public sector on long-term schemes. That model typically offers better visibility and less cyclicality than pure private sales.

The 2025 results showed margins improving in the second half, net debt falling, and a record £4.5bn forward order book as of March 2026 with a big chunk of 2026 units already sold. As such, management expects revenue, volumes, and profit to grow this year, even if margins dip in the short term while incentives do their job.

Are these UK shares worth buying?

Personally, I think both of these housebuilders are fascinating options for patient investors.

Persimmon looks like a quality cyclical opportunity – a strong brand, hefty land bank, and improving sales, that’s currently being held back by interest rates and buyer confidence.

Vistry feels more like a higher‑risk, higher‑reward turnaround, with its partnerships strategy and battered share price offering more upside if management executes well.

However, for me, neither is a slam‑dunk today. So for now, they’re staying on my watchlist.

Should you invest £5,000 in Persimmon Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

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Zaven Boyrazian does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.

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The firm’s issued (what feels like) another profit warning. But the core of my thesis is still intact.

What’s been going wrong?

In general, UK housebuilders have been in a tough situation. Demand has been weak and conflict in the Middle East has been pushing up costs. This has been a problem across the industry.

But Vistry’s found itself in a weaker position than most of its major competitors. Unlike other builders, the firm began the year with a net debt position. And that’s significantly reduced its flexibility in a tough market.

Having obligations to meet means the company’s had to offer bigger discounts to get houses sold. But that’s set to result in lower profits. That’s where the latest profit warning’s come from.

But the things that make Vistry different could be a long-term advantage. 

Short interest

Vistry’s been one of the UK’s most heavily-shorted stocks. And with the stock down 60% this year, it’s fair to say that’s worked well.

Does that mean I was wrong to buy the stock? My timing was certainly off, but I’m not giving up on this one with over half the year left.

In its latest update, Vistry outlined a number of moves to get back on track. These include further discounts and limiting land purchases.

Importantly however, management said the following:

The combined effect of the above actions is expected to deliver significantly lower average net debt levels in the second half and we are now expecting a net cash position in excess of £100m at 31 December 2026.

If it can get to this position, I think the stock looks incredibly cheap. It has a market value of £810m and there’s a big opportunity on the way.

The opportunity

So far, Vistry looks like an ordinary housebuilder with an unusually bad balance sheet. But there’s a potentially huge opportunity ahead. 

The government’s Social and Affordable Homes Programme (SAHP) is underway. And there are two reasons why this could be huge for the firm. The first is that Vistry’s one of only two companies with Strategic Partner Plus status. This means it can bid directly for £700m in funding. 

The other is that it has relationships with the local authorities and housing associations that can bid for the rest. And that’s unusual. Vistry has been turning itself into a specialist in this area. So the £39bn SAHP programme should be a huge opportunity.

Make or break time

Vistry’s issues aren’t imaginary. But my investment thesis for the stock remains intact, for the time being. 

I still think there’s a massive opportunity ahead. And the falling share price actually reinforces this.

There’s a lot hanging on the SAHP programme. Vistry’s open market business is facing some serious challenges. If the firm can fix its balance sheet, the second half of 2026 could be much more positive than the first. So I’m cautiously optimistic.

As the stock continues to fall, I’m steadily adding to my position. We’ll see soon enough whether or not that’s the right move.

Should you invest £5,000 in Vistry Group Plc right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Vistry Group Plc made the list?

Stephen Wright has positions in Vistry.

The post Should I use £1,000 to buy 392 shares in one of the most heavily-discounted UK stocks of 2026? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Like those of other housebuilding stocks, the Iran War has pushed Vistry’s share price sharply lower. Valuations have dropped as the conflict drives up inflation and slows homebuyer acvitity. But has the stock market overreacted?

Not if Vistry’s trading update is anything to go by…

So what’s Vistry said?

Markets hate uncertainty. So investors have reacted badly to Vistry’s advice that in the last two months

the level of macro-economic uncertainty has increased, and with it the range of potential outcomes for the current year.

What it did predict is that it expects H1 profit “to be significantly lower than the prior year.” In better news, performance in H2 is tipped to match that of the same period in 2025, thanks to better margins on active sites and rising demand from the firm’s affordable housing partners.

The company now expects adjusted pre-tax profit for the full year to come in around the middle of the range of analysts’ forecasts. These currently sit at £168m to £283m. Profits were £268.8m in 2025.

What about sales rates?

Vistry said its open market sales rate is up 32% since 1 January (at 1.2 versus 0.91 last year). However, it’s also seen “some moderation in recent weeks reflecting uncertainty arising from the Middle East conflict,” it noted, prompting it to introduce more incentives and discounts for buyers, particularly on low-margin sites.

Vistry’s forward order book is £4.5bn, down from £4.6bn at the same point in 2025.

It’s not just sales rates that are under pressure as buyer caution and mortgage products becoming more expensive. Building material and labour costs are also rising, which Vistry has noted recently and expects to continue into H2.

It’s no surprise that the shares have plummeted again. The company now trades on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.3 times. But I’m wondering: could now be an attractive dip-buying opportunity?

A FTSE 250 bargain?

I’m not expecting things to get better any time soon. Things could in fact get much worse. Yet I’m optimistic Vistry’s share price will recover strongly over time. And for long-term investors, now might be a good time to consider opening a position.

It’s also important to think about how cheap the share now is. That P/E of 7.3 is miles below the 10-year average of 14–15. What’s more, Vistry’s price-to-book (P/B) value of 0.3 shows the company trading at a massive discount to its balance sheet assets.

It makes me believe that — for patient investors at least — it might be one of the best value shares to consider right now. Long term, the outlook for the housing market remains robust, driven by the UK’s booming population. And the company has a new chief executive, Adam Daniels, to help it seize this opportunity. Just remember there could be some more bumps along the way.

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