2026 has been a bad year for FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 housebuilding shares. But Vistry Group’s (LSE:VTY) share price performance has been nothing short of catastrophic. Today, it trades at 236.8p per share, down 63% since 1 January.
The affordable housing specialist just can’t catch a break, in fact. It’s slumped another 7% today (Wednesday, 8 July) after another shocking trading update.
I don’t own Vistry shares. But I do love buying quality stocks then they slump in price and trade on rock-bottom valuations. So I’m asking: is now the time to buy this beaten-up FTSE 250 stock for my portfolio?
Profit warning
The housing market’s fragile recovery at the end of 2025 and start of 2026 has been truly demolished. Home sales have weakened sharply, reflecting the unfavourable impact of the Iran war on mortgage lending rates.
Yet, Vistry has performed especially badly, and today shocked the market with a profit warning. It’s now tipping an adjusted pre-tax loss of £30m for the six months to June. It had the market’s card marked in May when it predicted “significantly lower” profits from the £80.6m profit in the same 2025 period. But today’s result was much worse than feared.
For the full year, pre-tax profits are now tipped at £200m, down from May’s forecast of £223m.
So what’s gone wrong? On the positive side, average weekly sales rates are up, increasing 2% over the first half. The problem is Vistry’s having to slice prices to offload its properties. Discounts on private sales leapt to 7.1% from 1.4% last year.
Completions fell 12% to roughly 6,100 homes. Meanwhile, the order book slumped 9% to £3.9bn. And worryingly, Vistry warned that
We are not anticipating a significant change in open market conditions in [the second half], or in early 2027.
Vistry: cheap as chips
Like many investors, I buy stocks with a long-term view in mind. So if Vistry shares look good over an extended horizon (like five years), I’d be tempted to buy. And especially given how cheap they currently are.
Following today’s slump, the FTSE 250 share trades on a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 7 times. That’s less than half the 10-year average of around 15. Meanwhile, its price-to-book (P/B) ratio has toppled to 0.2, below historical levels of 1.
But here’s the thing. I think profits for all housebuilders could rise strongly as the UK’s population grows, driving demand for new homes. Yet, I’m also worried that Vistry’s focus on affordable housing — traditionally a more stable part of the market — isn’t keeping earnings afloat. It suggests there could be deep-seated problems that new chief executive Adam Daniels may struggle to fix.
I’m also discouraged by ongoing boardroom turmoil at the company. Today it was announced chief financial officer Tim Lawlor will be following old CEO Greg Fitzgerald out the door in October. It adds further uncertainty going forwards, not to mention the sense that all’s not well.
Is this FTSE 250 share a buy?
For more risk-tolerant investors, buying this beaten-down FTSE 250 share could prove a masterstroke over time. But for me, it offers too much risk. I’d rather find other cheap stocks to buy for my ISA or SIPP.
Should you invest £5,000 in Vistry Group Plc right now?
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Royston Wild does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
