When I started investing, I was surprised to find how popular Greggs’ (LSE:GRG) shares are. Like many other inner-city office workers, I was a regular customer, but hadn’t ever viewed the company as an investment.
I have since discovered that the Greggs story is about more than just sausage rolls and bakery products. The baker is the UK’s number-one food-to-go breakfast brand (19.6% market share), topping McDonald’s, and recently overtook Subway as the UK’s largest fast-food chain.
So should investors be taking the stock more seriously?
A more nuanced story
Greggs has become a consumer confidence proxy – a company whose performance reveals whether UK shoppers are still prioritising value food-on-the-go despite economic pressure. CEO Roisin Currie said Greggs “outperformed the wider market and increased its market share of visits.”
The UK food-to-go market is set to hit £24.9bn in 2026, growing 3.3%. Sales growth is resilient despite tough conditions: total sales increased 6.8% to £2.15bn in 2025, with company-managed shop like-for-like sales up 2.4%.
Britain has not hit peak Greggs
Greggs CEO Roisin Currie
The estate stood at 2,739 shops at the end of December 2025, with 121 net new openings and a long-term vision for 3,000–4,500 shops.
But 2026 guidance disappointed:
- Profits expected flat at 2025 levels.
- Shares fell 7.2%.
- Underlying operating profit margin was 8.7% in 2025, down from 9.7% in 2024.
- Diluted EPS fell 10.7% to 122.8p.
The weak performance highlights the UK’s cost-of-living crisis, with elevated inflation impacting footfall on high streets. While this is an ongoing risk that could continue to suppress price growth, it isn’t reflective of the company’s performance.
The question is, how long can it continue to struggle through weak economic conditions, and is the current low price an opportunity?
Still good value
From a valuation perspective, Greggs looks attractive, trading 29% below its 10-year median price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 19.84.
| Metric | Greggs | FTSE Average |
|---|---|---|
| P/E ratio | 14.31 | 15-17 |
| Dividend yield | 4.06% | 3.2% (FTSE 250) |
| 10-year median P/E | 19.84 | 14.5 – 15 |
That tells me that Greggs isn’t just a bakery chain – it’s a value food play that’s proving defensive in a weak consumer environment.
While premium restaurants and casual dining struggle with weak consumer spending, Greggs delivers £5–£7 meals that appeal to budget-conscious shoppers.
The company’s focus on high streets, travel hubs, and petrol forecourts positions it perfectly for the growing food-to-go market. If it can keep growing despite a fragile consumer backdrop, is the market underestimating how defensive this business really is?
The bottom line
Greggs is a value food play proving defensive in weak consumer conditions. It enters 2026 with “a strong pipeline of new opportunities“, supported by supply chain investments and a focus on efficiency and value.
But its share price is still heavily tied to food-to-go spending, consumer confidence and cost inflation.
When assessing the business, it’s important to factor in consumer spending trends and the £24bn food-to-go market growth. That’s why I remain optimistic about its income potential. When you add in the fresh value appeal, it’s a stock worth considering, in my book.
Should you invest £5,000 in Greggs Plc right now?
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Mark Hartley owns shares in Greggs.
