The core AI concern

The central concern is not that artificial intelligence can generate information, but that large language models could start to disintermediate parts of professional workflow software.

Nowhere is this debate more obvious than in legal services. LexisNexis sits at the centre of how lawyers search case law, build arguments, and manage complex workflows. Investors are increasingly asking whether AI tools could replicate or bypass parts of that process.

At first glance, the case is easy to make. LLMs already summarise legal documents, draft analysis, and retrieve information at speed. If they improve further, it raises a simple question: do traditional legal information providers risk losing relevance in the workflow chain?

A related issue is pricing power. If AI tools from large software groups sit between RELX and its customers, the concern is that control over access, distribution, and monetisation of data could weaken.

In short, the debate is not about whether AI exists, but whether it replaces parts of RELX’s position in the professional workflow stack.

Information vs knowledge

In practice, the concern about AI disintermediation often assumes that legal information is simply a question of retrieval. But the reality is more complex.

Law is not just information. Instead, it’s a structured, precedent-driven discipline built on decades of layered interpretation, professional standards, and jurisdiction-specific nuance.

Accuracy, traceability, and trust are essential — which is why raw AI outputs are not enough on their own.

Embedding AI tools

Rather than being displaced by new AI tools, the group is integrating them into its platforms. Management says it works closely with providers such as OpenAI and Anthropic, constantly testing new models and embedding those that add value.

The key issue is control of the workflow. Where AI improves how customers interact with legal content, it is built into products like Lexis+ AI. Where third-party tools sit outside the content layer, the group does not compete directly, but ensures its data can still be accessed through those environments.

In other words, the strategy is not to resist AI but to sit underneath it as the trusted content layer that powers it.

What’s the verdict

Having recently added RELX shares to my own portfolio after their sharp decline, I think the market may be overestimating the risk from AI disruption to its core legal business.

The concern assumes information can be easily commoditised. In my view, the real value lies in structured, trusted, and workflow-integrated data. The group is also enhancing this by embedding AI into its platforms, not being replaced by it.

That said, there is still uncertainty. If AI models evolve faster than expected, the competitive landscape could shift more than the market currently expects.

Should you invest £5,000 in RELX right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if RELX made the list?

Andrew Mackie owns shares in Relx.

The post After a 38% fall, are RELX shares still one of the FTSE 100’s best AI stocks? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Despite some periods of strength for the Footsie in 2026, British investors have been left watching American markets rally while domestic stocks overall are more sluggish.

But many analysts remain bullish about the UK market, with three stocks in particular tipped to make spectacular gains this year.

They are: RELX (LSE: REL), Experian, and Melrose Industries.

What does Wall Street expect of the S&P 500?

Major brokers expect the S&P 500 to rise by about 12% in 2026. Goldman Sachs lifted its year-end target to 8,000 on May 27, up from 7,600 in April.

Strategists said that forecast rests on 12% earnings per share (EPS) growth this time and a further 10% increase in 2027. Other major banks are clustering around the 7,400 to 7,800 range.

The average consensus is around 7,710, which would imply roughly 12% growth from the start of the year.

However, the range is wide, depending on earnings delivery and AI momentum.

Let’s see why analysts are bullish about some FTSE shares.

Three UK stocks tipped to do better

RELX shows the highest growth expectations of 71%, with a consensus target of 4,145p. Experian has the most analyst consensus strength, while Melrose Industries shows the widest range.

While these are 12-month targets, it’s realistic to expect half that growth to occur this year.

What prompts the high RELX expectations?

RELX is embedding AI functionality into its products at an accelerated pace, which CEO Erik Engstrom called “a key driver of our business for well over a decade.”

• The Risk division is using AI-enabled analytics and decision tools to drive strong underlying revenue growth, with 90% of revenue from machine-to-machine transactions.

• The Legal division is rolling out Generative-AI drafting, research copilots (Lexis+ AI), and analytics suites targeting higher revenue and expansion into corporate legal and compliance teams.

• The STM (Scientific, Technical & Medical) division is developing AI summarisation, literature-mapping, and EHR-integrated clinical decision pathways via its subsidiary Elsevier.

RELX is also shifting from traditional publishing to a platform-led, data-first model with recurring subscription revenue, now 75% of group revenues.

The business delivered a 9% rise in underlying operating profit in 2025, with free cash flow conversion near 90%+ of adjusted net profit.

The bottom line

All three of these stocks look promising, but RELX really stands out as one worth considering. But it’s not risk-free.

Ironically, the very same tech that’s a driver for growth (AI), is also the number one cause of fear among investors. And even though the company has been navigating change for over 100 years, AI’s real impact remains very unpredictable. 

Still, in my mind, the potential outweighs the risk. The company’s shift to recurring subscription revenue (75%), strong free cash flow (90%+ conversion), and disciplined M&A strategy support sustained growth.

And these are just three of many FTSE shares that show promise in 2026…

Should you invest £5,000 in RELX right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if RELX made the list?

Mark Hartley owns shares in RELX and Experian.

The post 3 UK stocks tipped to outperform the S&P 500 in 2026 appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

But two others particularly catch my eye. And one of them surprises me — but I’ll leave that for last.

Defence boost

BAE Systems (LSE: BA.) has soared more than 280% over the past five years — though that’s still way behind Rolls-Royce’s 1,100%.

Yet even after a rise like that, brokers expect even more. They have an average price target on the stock of 2,322p — around 11% above where were are today.

And looking at analyst models, my Twelfth Magpie colleague Mark Hartley recently concluded they had it around 25% below fair value.

The company’s latest trading update highlighted…

• Strong operational and financial performance so far in 2026.
• Full-year guidance maintained.
• Increased defence spending across all our key markets.
• Well positioned for growth over the medium term.

The main potential threats I see concern valuation and timing. We’re looking at a forecast price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 25 right now. And many will see that as at least fully valued.

And the defence business has been cyclical over the long term. Is it really wise to consider investing at a time when the future will hopefully be more peaceful?

Still, the changing world order means there might actually be years of defence growth to come, I think. So I’d say BAE’s worth looking into — even if it’s not for me.

Best till last?

And then we come to RELX (LSE: REL), which seems to have the City experts all excited. A full 14 out of the 15 I can find with recommendations urge us to Buy. And even the lone party pooper is only sitting on a Hold recommendation — so hardly a gloom merchant.

The 3,618p average target is about 50% higher than the share price at the time of writing, with the stock lagging the FTSE 100 over the past year.

So why all the optimism? It looks like it’s that AI thing…

The continued evolution of artificial intelligence is enabling us to add more value to our customers, as we embed additional functionality in our products, and to develop and launch products at a faster pace, while continuing to manage cost growth below revenue growth.

CEO Erik Engstrom, FY 2025 results

April’s AGM trading update continued along the same lines: “Strong underlying revenue growth continues to be driven across segments by our deeply embedded, AI-enabled analytics and decision tools.“

Bull vs Bear

I confess I’m pulled in two directions here. I certainly can’t ignore the surge in AI technology. But I’m just not sure which pioneers will pass the test of time — the rising tide lifting all boats thing.

Against that, RELX has a forward P/E of only 19 — and that could be cheap if it’s a long-term AI winner. Oh, and the company’s raised its dividend for 15 consecutive years — albeit with a modest yield under 3%.

Should investors be considering RELX as a way to earn dividend cash from AI? I am.

Should you invest £5,000 in BAE Systems right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if BAE Systems made the list?

Alan Oscroft does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.

The post 2 hot FTSE 100 shares brokers are tipping for June appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Lump sum vs contributions

To explore this question further, I modelled an investor who starts with a £40,000 lump sum while also making gradually increasing yearly contributions that broadly reflect a typical career path, where earnings — and therefore investing capacity — rise over time. By year 20, annual contributions top out at around £7,700.

The chart below shows how the sources of wealth creation evolve across a 20-year investment time frame.

Using a relatively modest 4% long-term return assumption, the early impact of the lump sum is obvious. At the beginning, most wealth creation comes from that initial capital simply because it has more time to compound.

But something interesting happens as time passes.

As regular contributions build and earlier contributions begin compounding themselves, an increasingly large share of total wealth comes from ongoing investing rather than starting capital alone.

Chart created by author

Now, the exact balance would change under different return assumptions. Higher returns would naturally place greater weight on money invested earlier. But that’s not really the point.

What matters is the broader lesson.

A lump sum can provide an early advantage, but passive income is not reserved for investors with substantial wealth already behind them. Over long periods, consistency and time matter just as much as starting capital.

Quiet compounding

The earlier chart highlights something investors often overlook: wealth creation is rarely dramatic. Instead, it tends to build gradually as compounding quietly gathers momentum.

To me, RELX (LSE: REL) fits that same philosophy.

Unlike more cyclical businesses, the data management giant has built itself around recurring subscription revenue, deeply embedded customer relationships, and specialist data services that customers rely on every day. That may sound unexciting, but it creates something investors should value highly — predictability.

Across legal, risk, and scientific analytics, customers rarely use RELX products once and move on. These tools become embedded within professional workflows, creating recurring revenue and high switching costs that support remarkably consistent earnings growth.

That consistency matters.

The company is not dependent on commodity prices, consumer spending cycles, or one-off product launches. Instead, it compounds through steady renewal income, gradual expansion, and disciplined reinvestment.

AI still forms part of the debate, but perhaps not in the way investors initially feared. In legal markets especially, the value lies less in raw information and more in trusted databases, precedent, and verified content built over decades.

What’s the verdict

Valuation remains the obvious risk. Quality rarely comes cheaply and slower growth could pressure the premium that investors currently pay for that predictability.

Even so, the attraction for me is not excitement — it’s durability.

The earlier chart showed how time quietly changes the balance of wealth creation. RELX operates in much the same way. Returns are rarely spectacular overnight, but allowed to compound over long periods, that consistency can become surprisingly powerful. And it’s far from the only stock I’m watching through that lens.

Should you invest £5,000 in RELX right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if RELX made the list?

Andrew Mackie owns shares in Relx.

The post How passive income from a Stocks and Shares ISA is really built appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

That matters because many investors focus on what a £20,000 portfolio can generate today, when the real opportunity lies in how that figure can grow through disciplined investing over time.

Used properly, a Stocks and Shares ISA can become the foundation of a second income stream — but only if investors understand how compounding, dividends, and reinvestment work together.

Compounding effect

When building a Stocks and Shares ISA, it’s easy to focus on how much is invested. But the chart below shows something more important than contribution levels or return assumptions.

It compares two investors using the same 8% return over 20 years. One invests a £20,000 lump sum at the start. The other invests £1,000 a year for 20 years.

The outcome is driven by one factor: time.

Money invested earlier has longer to compound. That compounding builds on itself year after year, and the gap widens simply because one portfolio starts working sooner.

This is the core point the chart is designed to show. Not the exact contribution method. Not the precise return assumption. But the effect of time.

Everything else investors tend to focus on — timing, structure, even total contributions — becomes secondary to that simple reality.

The longer money is invested, the more powerful compounding becomes. That’s what drives the difference in outcomes.

Chart created by author

Quality compounder

One business that fits this idea of long-term consistency and compounding is RELX (LSE: REL).

At first glance, recent weakness in the share price reflects concerns that AI could disrupt its legal, scientific, and risk analytics businesses. On the surface, that sounds like a credible threat — particularly in areas like legal research, where large language models are improving rapidly.

However, the business is not built around static content or easily replaceable information. Its strength lies in proprietary datasets built up over decades — particularly in legal and risk markets where precedent, accuracy, and verification matter as much as raw information.

In law especially, AI tools may improve access to information, but they don’t remove the value of structured, validated, and continuously updated legal databases. If anything, the demand for trusted data becomes more important as AI-generated outputs increase in volume.

That’s why RELX has been integrating AI into its own platforms rather than resisting it. Across its divisions, it is using machine learning tools to improve workflow efficiency for lawyers, insurers, researchers, and risk professionals — all within its existing subscription ecosystem.

This creates a different type of investment profile. Growth is not driven by cycles or one-off wins, but by steady subscription renewals and incremental expansion over time.

What could go wrong

The main risk is not sudden disruption, but slower structural growth if AI meaningfully reduces demand for human-led professional services.

Even so, the attraction for me lies in consistency. RELX has demonstrated an ability to compound earnings through multiple cycles, without relying on aggressive assumptions.

The chart earlier illustrates how powerful time can be when compounding is allowed to work uninterrupted. To me, the same principle applies to investing itself. Quality businesses such as RELX are built around long-term consistency rather than short-term excitement — and that is often where lasting wealth creation begins.

Should you invest £5,000 in RELX right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if RELX made the list?

Andrew Mackie owns shares in Relx.

The post How to turn a £20k Stocks and Shares ISA into a second income over time appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

1. Taylor Wimpey: a discounted housing recovery play

Taylor Wimpey‘s (LSE:TW.) one of the UK’s largest residential housebuilders, and it currently trades at a meaningful discount to its long-run historical average.

While the majority of institutional analysts covering the stock hold a Hold rating today, a meaningful minority still rate the stock a Buy or Outperform. And there’s a compelling structural case to be made about this potential value stock.

In 2026, the UK housing market is still chronically undersupplied. And the government’s commitment to building 1.5 million new homes over the current parliament provides a powerful policy tailwind that should sustain demand for years.

Of course, there’s some understandable uncertainty about whether the UK government will actually hit that target, especially in the currently volatile political climate. Nevertheless, with almost all political parties in favour of building more homes, this long-term dynamic gives Taylor Wimpey a durable platform to grow into.

Operationally, the business is in better shape than its share price implies. Completions are recovering from post-pandemic lows, the order book’s rebuilding, and management’s maintained a progressive dividend policy through the downturn – an encouraging signal of genuine confidence in the outlook.

The risks are real though. With interest rates stuck in a holding pattern amid ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East, the expected improvement in mortgage affordability has yet to fully materialise. And this more expensive mortgage environment is blocking many first-time buyers from getting on the housing ladder.

Build cost inflation from labour and materials continues to squeeze margins, and planning delays also remain a persistent drag on delivery timelines.

2. RELX: a quality compounder hiding in plain sight

RELX (LSE:REL) is a data and analytics group serving the legal, insurance, scientific, and exhibition sectors. And even with all the recent price fluctuations, the company has continued to deliver consistent payouts to its shareholders. In fact, the company has now delivered 15 consecutive years of dividend growth an annual average 8.6% hike.

Full-year 2025 results showed adjusted revenue up 7% to £9.59bn and operating profit up 9% to £3.34bn. CEO Erik Engstrom captured the bull case clearly:

“The continued evolution of artificial intelligence is enabling us to add more value to our customers, as we embed additional functionality in our products, and to develop and launch products at a faster pace.”

But despite management’s confidence in the value-adding benefits of AI, the technology also opens the door to potential disruption.

If cheaper AI tools erode the perceived uniqueness of RELX’s proprietary data, corporate customers may cut back on their licenses and spending in favour of cheaper ‘good enough’ alternatives – a real threat that’s behind most of the recent volatility.

What’s the verdict?

Both stocks come with genuine risks. But they also show exciting promise for contrarian investors hunting for potential value stocks. Out of the two, I think RELX has the most potential due to its lower reliance on wider external market forces. But I’ve already added both companies to my watchlist.

Should you invest £5,000 in RELX right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if RELX made the list?

Zaven Boyrazian does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.

The post Expert picks: 2 UK value stocks to buy in May? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Why consistency matters more than most investors realise

Second income from a Stocks and Shares ISA is often framed as a straightforward numbers exercise: build a large enough portfolio and the income follows.

But for most investors, the real challenge is not calculating the target — it’s maintaining consistent contributions through different life stages and market cycles.

Assuming a 6% annual return, building a £300,000 ISA would require contributions of roughly £8,200 a year over 20 years. Using a 4% withdrawal rate, that could generate around £1,000 a month in second income.

In practice, very few investors contribute in perfectly straight lines for two decades. For example:

• A life-cycle investor contributing smaller amounts early on, larger sums during peak earning years, and less later in life could still end up close to the same outcome.
• An irregular investor who stops contributing entirely for five years can still recover lost ground — but only by sharply increasing contributions later, potentially investing around £19,000 a year for five years simply to catch up.

That second example highlights the power of consistency. Missing several years of investing does not necessarily make the target impossible but it can place heavy pressure on future savings because less money has had time to compound longer.

That’s why portfolio construction and stock selection matter. Stronger long-term returns reduce the burden on future contributions and make meaningful second income more achievable.

A compounding engine hidden in plain sight

One business that fits this idea of long-term consistency and compounding is RELX (LSE: REL).

At first glance, recent volatility in the share price has been driven by concerns that artificial intelligence could disrupt its legal, scientific, and risk analytics businesses. On the surface, that sounds like a genuine threat.

But the more interesting point is that RELX is not standing outside the AI shift — it’s actively embedding it into its own products.

Across its divisions, the group is using AI to enhance its core offering. It helps lawyers, insurers, researchers, and risk professionals make faster and more accurate decisions using proprietary datasets built over decades.

This matters because the real moat is not the interface, it’s the underlying data. And that data becomes more valuable, not less, as AI tools improve.

In my view, this is where the market may be misunderstanding the story. Rather than being disrupted by low-cost AI tools, RELX sits closer to a ‘picks-and-shovels’ provider of trusted information that AI systems themselves rely on.

That creates a very different type of investment proposition. Growth is not explosive or cyclical but repeatable and driven by subscription renewals and embedded workflows.

What could go wrong

There are still risks. If AI adoption meaningfully reduces demand for human-led professional services, growth could slow at the margin. The valuation is also not cheap relative to the wider market.

However, what stands out to me is the consistency of performance through different cycles, and the ability of the business to compound earnings year after year without needing heroic assumptions.

For investors focused on building long-term second income through consistency rather than timing, RELX is the type of business that quietly does the heavy lifting in a portfolio.

The post How much should someone invest each month for a £1,000-a-month second income? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

How much it could be worth after 20 years of investing is a question many investors ask, but the answer is shaped less by any single return assumption and more by how consistently money is added over time.

Regular investing, time in the market, and the ability to keep contributing through both rising and falling markets tend to matter more than trying to predict short-term performance.

Some investors add to their ISA every month without interruption. Others pause during volatility or wait for better entry points. Over two decades, those differences in behaviour can have a far bigger impact than most people expect.

That’s why it can be more useful to look at how a Stocks and Shares ISA might grow under different patterns of long-term investing.

Why consistency matters more than timing

The chart below models three different investing behaviours over a 20-year period using the same long-term market return assumption.

One investor contributes steadily throughout. Another starts smaller before increasing contributions during peak earning years. The third pauses investing entirely for several years before attempting to catch up later.

Despite all three investors eventually committing meaningful amounts of money, the outcomes diverge far more than many might expect.

The consistent investor ultimately builds the largest portfolio because more money spends longer compounding in the market. Meanwhile, the interrupted investor struggles to fully recover despite sharply increasing contributions later on.

The career-growth investor sits somewhere in between. Although contributions start relatively low, rising investment levels during higher earning years still produce a sizeable long-term portfolio.

Chart created by author

To me, that highlights one of the most important aspects of long-term ISA investing. Successful investing is not always about finding the perfect moment to buy shares or predicting short-term market moves.

Instead, the biggest driver of long-term portfolio growth is often consistency — continuing to invest through different market cycles and allowing compounding to work over extended periods of time.

A long-term compounder

RELX (LSE: REL) is one of the clearest examples of long-term compounding in the FTSE 100.

Rather than relying on cyclical demand, the business has built a model around recurring revenue, data, and subscription-based analytics that increasingly embed themselves into customer workflows.

In practice, that means once customers adopt its platforms, switching costs are high and usage tends to deepen over time.

Across its divisions, growth is being driven by a steady shift towards higher-value analytics and AI-enabled decision tools.

Across Risk, Legal, and Scientific publishing, more than 90% of revenue is now generated through machine-to-machine data interactions and integrated platforms, reinforcing the predictability of earnings.

This creates a business profile that looks unusually resilient. Revenue growth is consistent, but more importantly, operating leverage continues to improve as digital products scale.

The result is a company that compounds steadily rather than spectacularly — closer in behaviour to a long-term investment portfolio than a traditional cyclical stock.

The main risk is disruption from AI-driven alternatives that could commoditise parts of its data and analytics offering over time. However, RELX’s advantage lies in proprietary datasets, regulatory-grade content, and deep integration into professional workflows, which raises barriers to replacement. Overall, RELX remains a strong example of a quality compounder operating through multiple economic cycles.

The post How much could a Stocks & Shares ISA be worth after 20 years of investing? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

According to research by AJ Bell, 63% of all active analyst ratings on UK stocks are currently set to Buy – the most bullish institutional sentiment seen in over a decade. So even with markets near record highs, the experts clearly see plenty of opportunity ahead.

Here are three of their highest-conviction picks.

1. RELX: the data giant

RELX (LSE:REL) is a global information analytics company providing data, tools, and decision support across legal, scientific, medical, and financial sectors.

The long-term bull case is built on RELX’s extraordinary pricing power. Its customers are usually law firms, hospitals, and research institutions that are deeply embedded in RELX’s platforms and have very few credible alternatives. That kind of moat is exceptionally hard to replicate.

The bear case? Some worry that the rapid rise of artificial intelligence (AI) could gradually erode this moat by directly attacking the value proposition of the group’s proprietary datasets. After all, cheaper third-party tools can do a similar job, so why would customers pay a premium?

Luckily, so far, that narrative hasn’t proven to be true, but it’s nonetheless still a risk.

2. AstraZeneca: the global pharma titan powering ahead

AstraZeneca‘s (LSE:AZN) one of the world’s leading pharmaceutical companies, with a blockbuster pipeline spanning oncology, cardiovascular disease, and rare conditions.

Analysts at Citigroup, Barclays, and JP Morgan are all firmly in the Buy camp, with 81% of covering analysts recommending the stock. Why? Because the company might have one of the most impressive drug pipelines in the industry, with multiple late-stage trials that could unlock significant new revenue streams over the coming decade.

Of course, that doesn’t mean success is guaranteed. Drug development is exceptionally expensive and uncertain. And pipeline failures or pricing pressure from government healthcare systems could disappoint investors who’ve priced in significant success.

3. Beazley: the specialist insurer flying under the radar

Beazley (LSE:BEZ) is one of Lloyd’s of London’s leading specialist insurers, covering complex risks including cyber threats, marine, property, and professional indemnity across global markets.

Today, the company’s riding two powerful tailwinds. First, cyber insurance is one of the fastest growing segments in the entire insurance industry. And Beazley’s already recognised as a market leader with deep underwriting expertise that competitors struggle to replicate quickly.

The second tailwind is the higher-for-longer interest rate environment. Thanks to increased income from bonds and other short-duration fixed-income instruments, Beazley’s significant investment portfolio is already generating materially better returns than in previous years. And combined, these factors are boosting profitability from two directions at once.

But like all investments, there are risks to consider, most notably the inherently unpredictable nature of the specialist insurance business.

A major catastrophe or an unexpected surge in cyber claims could result in significant and sudden losses that pressure both the balance sheet and the share price.

The bottom line

These are three very different businesses, but all share a common thread: institutional analysts back them with rare conviction.

For investors wondering which FTSE shares to buy and hold through whatever the next decade brings, this trio looks like a compelling place to start investigating further. But they’re not the only opportunities I’ve got my eye on right now.

The post 3 FTSE shares experts think will lead the next bull market charge appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

As of Friday (8 May), Brent crude was hovering above $100 a barrel — roughly 40%-60% higher than February. Global stocks have felt the pinch: the MSCI World index is down around 4% in the first quarter and over 6% just in March.

Markets in Europe, the UK and Asia tend to suffer single-day dips of 2%-3% whenever escalation headlines hit the news. Meanwhile, energy stocks have benefited, with oil companies up 40%-45% and the broader energy sector nearly as strong.

So the market hasn’t crashed yet, but if this volatility keeps eroding confidence, things could get shaky.

What are major institutions saying?

We already know that central banks aren’t rushing to cut rates anymore. The Fed, ECB and Bank of England are holding steady and warning that this energy shock could keep inflation stubborn — and rates higher — for longer than anyone hoped. 

A brief look at investor chatter and anyone can see that anxiety is on the rise. Talk revolves around slower growth, sticky prices and even stagflation if oil prices don’t drop. People are even hinting at the possibility of a 1970s-style impact if the energy crisis worsens.

Yet the IMF, along with big insurers, aren’t losing their minds just yet. They believe that while the situation’s serious, it’s contained — for now.

Their worst-case warnings? A drawn-out mess pushing oil toward $150, sparking a global recession and forcing central banks to pick between fighting inflation or propping up growth.

So how should investors prepare for that scenario?

Safeguarding a portfolio

Most forecasts expect some de-escalation, with prices easing over time. For long-term investors with diversified portfolios, it would make sense to tilt toward sectors such as energy, defence, staples and infrastructure.

Keep some cash handy too but don’t try timing every headline or guessing the next twist. One area that many investors neglect is defensive tilting: instead of selling stocks to cut risk, shift to shares that weather storms.

One example for investors to consider is RELX (LSE: REL).

The threat of AI has knocked it down nearly 40% over the past year, but that’s arguably a plus. The fear now looks priced in, unlike a cyclical bet like Rolls-Royce that could drop more.

But AI disruption’s still an undeniable risk. If freely available tools outpace RELX’s ability to innovate, profits could dip and investors could flee.

So could it bounce back?

Personally, I think RELX has strong recovery potential. Here’s why:

• Solid fundamentals: 9.3% annual earnings growth over five years, revenue up 7.1% on average.
• Wide moat remains despite AI threats (could even be an opportunity).
• Analysts’ average 12-month target suggests 39.6% upside.
• The geopolitical situation increases demand for risk analysis tools.

Looking at its other financials, the valuation shows a price only 20 times earnings, which I think is cheap for a company of this quality. Plus, while its yield’s modest at around 2.7%, it’s growing steadily and is supported by buybacks.

At the end of the day, defensive shares like RELX remain one of the most popular methods to reduce risk exposure. And it’s just one of many I’ve covered recently.

The post How oil price volatility is impacting stock market sentiment — and how to prepare appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.