In the last five months, Avacta (LSE:AVCT) shares have jumped nearly 173%. But this doesn’t tell the full story of this pharma stock. Despite the recent surge, this FTSE AIM share is still down 8.5% over the last 12 months and 3.9% in 2022. This price action points to a volatile asset that rises and falls rapidly with the market. So what’s the reason behind this new spike in interest and should I invest in this medical research stock? Let’s find out. 

The rise and fall of Avacta shares

The pandemic-driven pharma boom is well documented. But Avacta was a huge winner, thanks to its timely antigen test kits that were effective detection tools. Its shares rose an astronomical 1,125% between March 2020 (when Covid was first declared as a pandemic) and May 2021. 

But the rise of variants meant the efficacy of the results dropped, causing the company to pull its test kits from the market in early 2022. Subsequently, the Avacta share price fell 86% to 42p. 

However, in recent weeks, this pharma stock has made a big comeback. Here’s what happened and my verdict on the stock. 

Big developments

Avacta is still primarily a clinical-stage biopharma firm with a focus on cancer detection and treatment. While it has a few other divisions, its most promising oncology treatments are still under development. 

Right now, oncology is one of the fastest-growing medical sectors. The market for such treatments is growing at a compound annual rate of 9.6%, which will generate $292.8bn by 2028. 

And a recent update from the board showed some significant developments in bringing these cancer treatments to market. While it will still take a decade before Avacta’s new AVA6000 chemotherapy system reaches the market, the prospects are promising. 

The innovative treatment focuses on reducing the toxicity of chemotherapy on healthy cells by strengthening its tumour-targeting properties. This is done with the help of a protein marker that’s present in high amounts in cancerous cells. 

The update shows that the treatment will move to Phase II by the second half of 2023. This was earlier than first expected and shows me that Phase I dose escalation data has been favourable so far. 

At the same time, the company also rolled out updates on several key partnerships. Its ongoing relationships with LG Chem Life Sciences and Daewoong Pharmaceuticals both received positive updates. Results from these partnerships are expected to boost the disease detection product line of Avacta over the coming decade. 

Concerns and verdict

Positive business developments and the UK market rebound have triggered this recent jump in Avacta shares. But I don’t think the current growth rate can be sustained without visible financial results. Even if trials are completed, bringing new cancer treatments to market is no easy task. It could take years to reach profitability. 

And financially, the firm is still loss-making, recording a pre-tax loss of £29m last year. This makes this AIM share a very speculative investment. The market is volatile right now and further economic distress in the UK could cause the FTSE 100 and other indexes to tumble. And while its future looks promising, I’ll wait for Avacta shares to show signs of sustained growth across the rest of 2022 before I consider a small investment in 2023. 

The post Up 173%, can Avacta shares continue this incredible run?   appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Suraj Radhakrishnan has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Persimmon (H1 trading update)

Persimmon (LSE: PSN) is one of Britain’s biggest and most renowned housebuilders. It builds properties ranging from flats to large family homes located across the UK. The FTSE 100 firm is expected to provide a trading update for its most recent half-year performance ending June 2022 on Thursday 7 July.

Analysts in the UK don’t normally publish earnings previews for six-month periods, so it’s best to compare the firm’s upcoming 2022 first-half numbers to the ones from a year before. The H1 2022 figures can also be useful to determine whether it’ll outperform its FY21 numbers, or even beat analysts’ FY22 forecasts.

In this case, Persimmon is predicted to show slight growth in its numbers as housing supply continues to attempt to match high demand. If the housebuilder posts a better-than-forecasted number on Thursday with positive guidance, it could be on course to beat its financial year estimates.

Entain (H1 trading update)

Entain (LSE: ENT) is an international sports betting and gambling company. It owns brands such as Bwin, Coral, Ladbrokes, PartyPoker, and Sportingbet. Entain will provide a trading update for its most recent half-year performance ending June 2022 on Thursday 7 July.

Based on the earnings preview, Entain expects to have a much stronger second half to its financial year than its first. Nonetheless, a headline beat on its previous year’s H1 results could spell a positive outlook for the firm.

Vistry (H1 trading update)

Vistry (LSE: VTY) is another housebuilder that’s providing investors with a trading update. The Kings Hill-based firm will be updating shareholders on for its most recent half-year performance ending June 2022 on Thursday 7 July.

Just like its peer, Vistry is also expecting modest growth in its numbers. This is expected to come from rising house prices. The key metric to look out for will be its diluted earnings per share metric. A better than expected number could make analysts’ predictions of achieving a much higher EPS later this year possible.

The post Earnings preview: Persimmon, Entain, Vistry appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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John Choong has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Marks and Spencer

Marks and Spencer (LSE: MKS) is a major British multinational retailer that sells clothing and beauty, home, and food products. This week, three director dealings were carried out. A large number of shares were received in lieu of a cash dividend, but a portion was sold to cover tax and national insurance obligations.

• Name: Stuart Machin
• Position of director: Chief Executive Officer
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 22 June 2022
• Amount received: 203,120 @ nil
• Total value: N/A

• Name: Stuart Machin
• Position of director: Chief Executive Officer
• Nature of transaction: Sales of shares to cover tax and national insurance liabilities
• Date of transaction: 22 June 2022
• Amount sold: 99,121 @ £1.37
• Total value: £135,805.68

• Name: Sacha Berendji
• Position of director: Property, Store Development, and IT Director
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 22 June 2022
• Amount received: 138,115 @ nil
• Total value: N/A

• Name: Sacha Berendji
• Position of director: Property, Store Development, and IT Director
• Nature of transaction: Sales of shares to cover tax and national insurance liabilities
• Date of transaction: 22 June 2022
• Amount sold: 67,399 @ £1.37
• Total value: £92,343.37

• Name: Paul Friston
• Position of director: International Director
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 22 June 2022
• Amount received: 131,691 @ nil
• Total value: N/A

• Name: Paul Friston
• Position of director: International Director
• Nature of transaction: Sales of shares to cover tax and national insurance liabilities
• Date of transaction: 22 June 2022
• Amount sold: 62,264 @ £1.37
• Total value: £88,048.11

Cranswick

Cranswick (LSE: CWK) is a leading UK food producer and supplier of fresh and premium food products. It’s most famous for its meat products. Four directors opted to exercise their share options this week. However, they then proceeded to sell portions.

• Name: Mark Bottomley
• Position of director: Chief Financial Officer
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount received: 31,800 @ nil
• Total value: N/A

• Name: Mark Bottomley
• Position of director: Chief Financial Officer
• Nature of transaction: Sale of shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount sold: 16,379 @ £30.82
• Total value: £504,768.02

• Name: Adam Couch
• Position of director: Chief Executive Officer
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount received: 48,100 @ nil
• Total value: N/A

• Name: Adam Couch
• Position of director: Chief Executive Officer
• Nature of transaction: Sale of shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount sold: 24,775 @ £30.82
• Total value: £763,515.95

• Name: Jim Brisby
• Position of director: Chief Commercial Officer
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount received: 31,800 @ nil
• Total value: N/A

• Name: Jim Brisby
• Position of director: Chief Commercial Officer
• Nature of transaction: Sale of shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount sold: 16,379 @ £30.82
• Total value: £504,768.02

• Name: Chris Aldersley
• Position of director: Chief Operating Officer
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount received: 26,300 @ nil
• Total value: N/A

• Name: Chris Aldersley
• Position of director: Chief Operating Officer
• Nature of transaction: Sale of shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount sold: 13,546 @ £30.82
• Total value: £417,460.628

HomeServe

HomeServe (LSE: HSV) offers low-cost home warranty and home repair options. It markets itself as the solution to expensive and inconvenient emergency home repairs. Three massive director dealings happened earlier in the week, as shares were awarded to these directors based on performance conditions.

• Name: David Bower
• Position of director: Director
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount received: 21,119 @ nil
• Total value: N/A

• Name: David Bower
• Position of director: Director
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount received: 10,190 @ £11.69
• Total value: £119,121.10

• Name: Tom Rusin
• Position of director: Director
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount received: 30,619 @ nil
• Total value: N/A

• Name: Tom Rusin
• Position of director: Director
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount received: 11,815 @ £11.69
• Total value: £138,117.35

• Name: Richard Harpin
• Position of director: Director
• Nature of transaction: Free shares
• Date of transaction: 27 June 2022
• Amount received: 34,911 @ nil
• Total value: N/A

Types of shares in a SIP

To provide context, there are a few types of shares within a company’s share incentive plan (SIP). A SIP is an employee plan for companies within the UK to flexibly award equity to employees. Publicly listed companies normally exercise this option because it’s tax-efficient for both the employer and its employees.

In this instance, all the director dealings above occurred with free shares. These shares were acquired by directors under their companies’ share plans. These were either a restricted share plan (Marks and Spencer), or incentive plans (Cranswick and HomeServe).

Share award schemes give employees actual shares rather than share options. The value of shares given to directors here is treated as employment income. This means that it may be subject to tax and national insurance contributions. That is unless the directors opt for an HMRC-approved share scheme, which has its own rules and requirements. Incentive plans give directors shares when they hit certain performance targets. For HomeServe directors, the awards were subject to the company’s earnings per share.

The post Director dealings: Marks and Spencer, Cranswick, HomeServe appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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John Choong has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Tesco. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Coating its pockets

The first thing I look at before I invest in any company is its balance sheet. boohoo’s balance sheet is rather healthy, with a 10.4% debt-to-equity ratio and enough cash at £70m to make up for its £50m debt. Its assets also sufficiently cover its liabilities, which is always a good sign. However, boohoo has taken on debt in its most recent half while also having its cash position cut almost in half. According to management, this was done to offset an increase in capital expenditure (Capex) as the company invests more in facilities to scale its growth prospects.

boohoo growth

boohoo reported that its net sales were up 10% in its most recent quarter. Active customers, orders, and order frequencies all saw an increase as well, but with that also comes a fly in the ointment. For starters, all regions bar the UK saw declines in growth. This was due to “Significantly longer customer delivery times as a result of the pandemic”, as international sales are fulfilled through its UK production line. But although customers and orders continue to grow, the average order value and items per basket have seen a decline, thus impacting quality earnings.

Moreover, boohoo has been experiencing declining annual sales growth. Its growth rate has seen a steady decline from 48% in 2019 to 41% in 2021. Furthermore, its profit margin has gone down from 5.5% in 2019 to 3.1% in its latest half. This shows me that the retailer is struggling to keep up with rising costs as inflation continues to run rampant. Primarily, carriage, freight, and labour have seen the biggest uptick in costs, with the AIM company expecting the drag to continue for the rest of the year. Nevertheless, investors will be hoping that the new US distribution centre set to open in 2023 will help ease the firm’s current supply chain constraints.

Nevertheless, investors will be hoping that the new US distribution centre set to open in 2023 will help ease the firm’s current supply chain constraints.

Hoo’s the future?

On the one hand, boohoo’s exciting ventures into the NFT and metaverse space could be a game changer if it succeeds. Its aggressive marketing strategy also shows the firm’s commitment to grow its sales numbers. Not to mention, it is investing more in automation in order to offset rising labour costs.

On the other hand, boohoo does face strong headwinds. Sky-high inflation has forced central banks to increase interest rates, and this has had a stifling impact on companies’ growth prospects. People are less willing to borrow and spend money at higher interest rates. This is evident in the latest GDP figures, which showed a decline in economic growth. The latest retail sales numbers did not look very promising either, showing a contraction.

While the boohoo share price looks reasonable at its current valuation, declining sales growth, spiralling costs, and a stalling economy, do not justify the opportunity cost for me to invest in boohoo. Therefore, I do not see this as a favourable climate for me to buy the shares for my portfolio.

The post Does the boohoo share price make it a buy? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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John Choong has no position in any of the shares mentioned at the time of writing. The Motley Fool UK has recommended boohoo group. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.