It’s been a poor week for SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) stock. Elon Musk’s extra-planetary operation was bound to be volatile after such a high-profile launch, and so it’s proved. SpaceX shares are down almost 13% in the last week.
Today, it trades at around $145. Any investor who bought in the immediate aftermath of its record-breaking IPO, when the shares topped out at $211, will be hurting today. Its market cap peaked at around $3trn. Today, it’s below $2trn. If it continues to slide, I might even be tempted to buy it myself.
I held back during the initial flotation, anticipating wild volatility like this. Also, I already had long-term exposure through my position in the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust. It bought into SpaceX in December 2018, when it was still privately owned. Its stake is now worth more than 20% of the trust’s net asset value. But why is SpaceX falling?
What’s gone wrong this week?
Investors have been jumpy about US technology stocks and artificial intelligence for months. They put their concerns aside as SpaceX IPO mania hit, but they’re fretting again. SpaceX is pouring billions into cash-hungry AI infrastructure and its expensive Starship programme. It’s further spooked markets by plans for a bond offering of up to $25bn, to raise still more cash.
There’s a more technical reason. IPO investors were subject to lock-ups preventing them from selling their shares to bank a quick profit. These will soon expire and a wave of sellers could hit the share price. There are also wider macro fears over the Iran war and the US Federal Reserve potentially hiking interest rates to curb inflation. That could hit demand for riskier stocks like SpaceX.
There are positives too. Passive tracker funds now have to buy SpaceX stock at scale to reflect their index. So there are big compulsory buyers out there.
At a business level, the Starlink satellite connectivity operation remains highly profitable, generating cash and subsidising the pricier elements. Its Starship programme could unlock new revenue streams. SpaceX might justify that massive spend to become a profitable AI infrastructure giant. And it does have Elon Musk, who’s something approaching a genius, surely.
What do the experts say?
Personally, I’m wary and won’t be buying SpaceX yet. But brokers are a lot more optimistic. I’ve checked out their forecasts, and they border on the ecstatic.
Of the 34 analysts giving stock ratings, 24 name it a Strong Buy and three more say Buy. There only two sellers. Consensus forecasts from 29 brokers produce a one-year price target of $242. If correct, that’s an increase of 67% from today. Of course, these are only educated guesses. And many will have been made during IPO fever.
But I think it shows that these shares are still worth considering for long-term investors who are up to the challenge. They may see last week’s dip as a buying opportunity, rather than a threat. But it might be wiser to feed money in, just in case the shares have further to fall.
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Harvey Jones owns shares in Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust.
