Those who bought Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ:SPCX) stock at IPO are currently (28 June) sitting on a tidy profit.
But life for SpaceX (as it’s commonly known) as a now-listed business is very different to that of a privately-owned company. There’s added scrutiny, And pre-IPO hype to live up to.
Indeed, if the space, communications, and AI group is to meet its lofty expectations, it’s going to have to show that things are going in the right direction.
That’s why 11 August could be significant. Why? It’s when SpaceX is due to unveil its first set of results as a quoted company. But there’s another reason why it could be a key date. Let’s take a closer look.
Pick a number
Who knows where the group’s stock price will be by August? Analysts have 12-month targets ranging from $62 to $401.
However, on the 11th of that month, up to 20% of the Early Release Eligible Shares (owned by employees and early-stage investors) can be sold. Moreover, if the share price is $175.50 — and has been at this level for at least five of the 10 previous trading days — another 10% can be offloaded.
These are separate from the normal lock-up restrictions that permit pre-IPO shareholders from disposing of significant quantities of their stock.
We do not want humans to have the same fate as dinosaurs.
Company prospectus
What does this mean?
These arrangements could lead to a sharp drop in the group’s share price. Some of the estimated 4,400 employees, who have become paper millionaires as a result of the listing, and other early investors, may be tempted to cash in.
But then again, it could be a non-event. In my opinion, it doesn’t really matter either way.
I reckon SpaceX is the sort of stock that should be tucked away in an investor’s portfolio and forgotten about. I think it’s likely to be one of the most volatile stocks around.
Just look at a couple of price movements from the first few days of trading:
- 15 June: + 19.6%
- 22 June: -16.4%
The company’s huge valuation means relatively small movements in its numbers are likely to have a big impact. With very little to go on, analysts will be finding it difficult to come up with sensible forecasts.
What we do know is that, up until now, the group’s been loss-making. During Q1 2026, it reported an operating loss of $1.94bn. Only Starlink was profitable.
| Division/Q1 2026 performance | Revenue ($bn) | Adjusted EBITDA ($bn) | Operating result ($bn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Space | 619 | (351) | (662) |
| Connectivity | 3,257 | 2,087 | 1,188 |
| AI | 818 | (609) | (2,469) |
| Group | 4,694 | 1,127 | (1,943) |
My view
I’ll be honest, the more I read about SpaceX, the more fanciful it seems. One million people living on Mars, supported by 10 rocket launches a day delivering cargo and essential supplies? Mmmm.
Much of its forecast growth is expected to come from its AI division, which is in its relative infancy. And if the group is to meet some of the more optimistic predictions, it’s going to need a huge amount of cash.
Despite these concerns, I own a small amount of the stock. Why?
Even if it achieves only a tiny fraction of what it wants, I suspect SpaceX – and Elon Musk — will retain the support of plenty of investors (fans?). Conscious of the risks, I reckon it’s a stock to consider for the very long term.
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James Beard owns shares in Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
