If an investor had put £81,816.33 into Rolls-Royce (LSE:RR.) shares five years ago, they would have £1,000,000.09 today.
That roughly £82,000 would have therefore turned an investor into a millionaire. But can the aircraft engine manufacturer’s shares do it again by 2030?
It depends on how much you invest
Now, to point out the obvious, for Rolls-Royce shares to turn investors into millionaires by the end of the decade, it’ll depend on how much money is put into them.
If, say, only £1,000 is invested, the company’s shares will need to increase by 100,000% to be worth £1m. This is very unlikely given the firm’s current market cap of £116.7bn.
A 100,000% return would value the company at around £116.7trn. The world economy is smaller than this, so this is extremely unlikely to happen.
On the other hand, an initial amount of £800,000 would only need to go up by 25%. This is a pretty plausible scenario. But then again, how many of you reading this have that much spare cash lying around?
I doubt many do. And it’s not necessarily wise to put that amount of money into a single company’s stock, either.
The engineering giant faces risks from conflict in the Middle East, which could hurt demand for its civil aerospace division. If this were to materialise and result in a 10% fall in its share price, it would mean an £80,000 loss on the initial £800,000 investment.
So, what I’m going to do instead is see whether £82,000 in Rolls-Royce shares can turn into £1m, just like they did in the last five years.
The catalysts
There are a lot of things going the firm’s way right now that could help propel its shares upwards.
First, growth has been very strong. In its first-quarter results for 2026, the company saw its large engine original equipment (OE) deliveries rise by 18%. Furthermore, defence OE deliveries also increased by 20%.
Second, its power systems division has been thriving. March was a record month and now boasts an order backlog of £7.3bn. Moreover, the company’s investment in small modular reactors shows a lot of promise.
And third, analysts expect the firm’s earnings per share to see strong growth in the next couple of years, increasing from 29p in 2025 to 37p in 2026 and then to 43p in 2027.
Let’s be real
But while the fundamentals of the business are sound, it’s very difficult to see Rolls-Royce shares growing to £1m in 2030 from an £82,000 investment today.
The engineering giant will need to grow to a market cap of £1.4trn, and with revenue of £20.1bn last year, this is very unlikely to happen. Furthermore, analysts are expecting revenue growth of 12.4% in 2026 and 10.1% in 2027.
This is decent growth, but we may need to add a zero to the percentage to give it a realistic chance of meeting a £1.4trn market cap.
Moreover, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 37, the company’s shares are already pretty pricey.
Having said all of that, while I don’t think its shares will provide investors with the life-changing returns it once did, I still think they’re worth exploring further, as there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the company’s long-term future.
Should you invest £5,000 in Rolls-Royce Plc right now?
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Muhammad Cheema does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
