Not every investor’s portfolio looks appetising right now, but Greggs‘ (LSE:GRG) share price has at least started to find its feet again. After a bruising stretch that saw shares fall nearly 50% from their peak, the stock’s been quietly stabilising in recent months… and a growing number of analysts think a recovery could be on the way.
What the analysts are saying
Right now, 11 analysts cover Greggs and the broad consensus is best described as ‘cautiously optimistic’. The average 12-month price target sits at around 2,037p, with Berenberg among the most bullish at 2,170p and RBC Capital at 1,830p.
Compared to where Greggs’ shares are trading today, that suggests a £5,000 investment right now could grow to be worth as much as £6,636 by this time next year – a roughly 32.7% return.
That definitely sounds promising. But is this a realistic expectation from a business that’s trudging through a soft consumer environment selling sausage rolls?
Why the forecasts are turning optimistic
Its recently-published full-year 2025 results showed total sales up 6.8% to £2.15bn, driven by 121 net new store openings over the year. Like-for-like sales growth of 2.4% was modest, but management was clear this reflected a tough consumer backdrop and an unusually hot summer denting footfall.
In other words, this lacklustre display may have been caused by one-time factors rather than structural weakness in the brand.
The long-term store rollout story also remains firmly intact. Greggs is targeting 3,500 UK locations over time, up from 2,759 today, creating a clear organic growth runway that doesn’t depend on macroeconomic conditions improving.
And with the Greggs’ share price still trading well below where it stood two years ago, value hunters are increasingly circling.
What could go wrong?
Not every analyst is convinced the recovery is imminent. In fact, one team of experts thinks the stock could actually take a tumble between now and next June, falling to 1,330p. That roughly equates to a 19% loss, turning £5,000 into £4,050.
Why? The core concern’s profitability. Underlying operating profit fell 4% in 2025, margins compressed from 9.7% to 8.7% and, subsequently, earnings per share took a painful 10.7% tumble, from 137.5p to 122.8p.
Higher employment costs following the increase in National Living Wage have taken their toll, and they also look set to remain a headwind through 2026. Meanwhile, UK consumer confidence remains fragile so it could be quite some time before Greggs starts to deliver double-digit like-for-like sales again.
What’s the verdict?
Greggs isn’t a glamorous stock, but it does enjoy the rare combination of a genuinely loyal customer base, a long runway of new store openings, and a share price that’s been heavily beaten down.
That doesn’t mean the stock won’t fall further, but it does skew the risk/reward ratio to a more interesting level.
Personally, I’m waiting for a bit more detail about how Greggs is navigating the current consumer landscape. But if it continues to show green shoots, the stock could become one of the tastiest recovery stories within the FTSE 250 in the not-too-distant future.
This is definitely a UK stock to keep a close eye on.
Should you invest £5,000 in Greggs Plc right now?
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Zaven Boyrazian does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
