After a sell-off earlier in the year, Barclays‘ (LSE: BARC) shares have made a nice recovery. Today, they’re back near 500p and on the cusp of breaking out to levels last seen in 2007 before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).
I don’t think it’s too late to consider buying them for an ISA or SIPP though. Here are three reasons why.
Near-term results should be strong
Business conditions for diversified banks like Barclays are pretty strong right now. For a start, equity and fixed income markets are volatile meaning that there are plenty of opportunities for their trading departments.
Secondly, the investment banking backdrop is robust. Note that while Barclays wasn’t a lead underwriter for the SpaceX IPO like Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were, it was involved in the listing as a book-running manager, meaning it will have pocketed some fees.
Third, global equity markets are near all-time highs. This means that fees from wealth management divisions should be healthy.
Put all this together, and I’d expect Barclays H1 results, scheduled for 28 July, to be strong. And with markets likely to remain volatile and more blockbuster IPOs on the way (Anthropic and OpenAI), results for the next few quarters could be strong as well.
An attractive valuation
Another reason to be bullish here is the valuation. It’s quite low, especially when compared to the valuations of Barclays’ US banking rivals.
At present, the British bank trades on a forward-looking price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just 9.6. By contrast, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs are on 14.9, 18.9, and 18.5 respectively.
So the stock looks quite cheap today, despite its recent move higher. I see value at current levels.
It’s worth noting that Barclays’ dividend yield also suggests that there’s some value here. At 3%, it’s higher than the yields on those three US bank stocks.
Barclays has share price momentum
Finally, we can’t ignore the share price momentum. Right now, the chart looks great. The trend’s clearly up. And if the stock can break free of this 500p level (which it hit earlier in the year), it could be set to go on a run. That’s because there are likely to be few investors who are sitting on losses and waiting to breakeven to sell.
Worth a look?
Of course, while there’s a lot to like about Barclays’ shares today, bank stocks do come with risks. One we need to monitor here is white-collar job losses and related mortgage stress.
Another is adverse interest rate movements. If rates were to drop rapidly, net interest income could come under pressure.
Overall though, I like the risk/reward set-up at current levels. With a low valuation, and many ways to generate revenue, I see the potential for healthy gains from here.
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Edward Sheldon owns shares in JP Morgan
