As the price of crude oil surges, so does the BP (LSE: BP) share price. Earlier this year, it briefly traded above £6 per share, its highest level in 16 years.
The shares are now up about 24% since the start of 2026, with a 52‑week high of 609.4p set on 31 March 2026.
But for a company that claims to reflect Britain’s energy transition ambitions, has it become too refocused on the old oil world?
To ask that question isn’t just speculative — it could make a huge difference for shareholders in the future.
Rapid growth… but at what cost?
There’s no question that the recent growth has been a boon for shareholders like me. However, the narrative driving the share price looks starkly different from the one it held when I originally bought my shares.
Back then, the story was about renewables, EV charging, and low‑carbon services. Now, CEO Murray Auchincloss says BP is “scaling back and reallocating capital expenditures towards our most profitable sectors to stimulate growth”.
In short, that means increasing oil and gas spending to $10bn by 2027. But if oil prices subside (and hurt the share price), where does that leave the company?
The UK’s energy transition strategy
The UK government is pushing hard for domestic energy transition – net zero, offshore wind, hydrogen, and carbon capture.
BP’s stated strategy still includes low‑carbon services, EV charging, hydrogen, and renewables, but the company has now slashed planned renewable investment by over $5bn, reducing it to $1.5bn–$2bn annually.
Meanwhile, it plans to increase oil and gas output to 2.3m–2.5m barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) by 2030 (up from 2m in 2024).
So how much of the transition story is actually priced into the share price? More importantly, is the market underestimating the potential impact when geopolitics shift?
Why this matters for UK investors
For many, BP has been viewed as a way to access the UK’s energy transition without building a bespoke green portfolio.
To some degree, the share price still reflects both the oil business and a more disciplined, capital‑efficient transition.
Key financials:
| Metric | Figure |
|---|---|
| Market cap | £83.6bn |
| YTD return | 24.62% |
| 52‑week high | 609.4p |
| 12‑month median target | 622.89p |
| Dividend yield | 4.54% |
According to analyst consensus, the stock should be trading closer to £6.29 — 13.3% higher than today’s price.
That’s an encouraging target – but one that could still be derailed by execution slippage, policy shifts, and oil price volatility.
Auchincloss recently announced BP will be “very selective in our investment in the transition”, highlighting slower-than-expected progress in the field.
So the question is: by shifting away from its energy transition strategy, does it risk losing ground to competitors?
The bottom line
Trying to predict short-term oil price moves in today’s market is a fool’s game. But one thing seems likely: they’ll come down eventually.
Meanwhile, high energy costs are driving rapid development in the energy transition sector. So the question is: where’s the money going to flow when oil loses its shine?
For those chasing short-term oil profits, BP is still worth considering — but I can’t help but question its long-term strategy.
For now, I’m holding my position, but I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t exploring other energy transition opportunities. SSE and Greencoat UK Wind are two I’ve eyed up lately, among others…
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Mark Hartley owns shares in BP.
