Greggs (LSE: GRG) shares have been in something of a boom-and-bust cycle over the past decade. And the price is still some way short of where it was in autumn 2024.
But after profits declined disappointingly in 2025, forecasts suggest slow but steady growth over the next few years. The dividend is expected to be held this year — for a 4.1% yield on the 1,644p closing share price on Tuesday (2 June). But after that, analysts see it getting back on a modest upward path.
So what might the Greggs share price do next? Are shareholders in for another bullish phase? We need to take a look at what the City brokers think might happen.
Broker upgrades
The four most recent broker recommendations I can find were all published in May, from UBS, Jefferies, Deutsche Bank, and Berenberg. Three of the four date from after Greggs’ trading update for the first 19 weeks of the year, released on 12 May.
| Date | Broker | Recommendation | Price target |
| 11 May | UBS | Buy | 2,200p |
| 12 May | Jefferies | Hold | 1,610p |
| 13 May | Deutsche Bank | Sell | 1,330p |
| 14 May | Berenberg | Buy | 2,090p |
Sources: Sharecast, London South East
We often see variations between different analyst opinions. But the range for these four, over the course of just four days, suggests a pretty wild range of valuations. The biggest of them is a full 65% higher than the smallest, and 34% ahead of where Greggs shares last closed. The smallest suggests a 19% fall.
Pricing pressure
Greggs’ product price rises have been held back quite impressively. So how has the company managed that, when so much else has been soaring? The latest update gave us an idea…
Our forward buying of key commodities continues to provide protection against increased inflation in the near term; we have forward purchase agreements in place representing circa five months of cover for our food and packaging needs and 85% of our 2026 energy and fuel requirements are fixed in price. In addition, circa 50% of our 2027 energy and fuel requirements are fixed.
— Greggs Trading update, 12 May
That does sound like smart forward planning. But, we can’t really be sure what the final effect might be. With energy and fuel, hopefully prices will fall again once the Middle East returns to what passes for peace there. And having so much fixed in price so far out is quite an achievement.
But food and commodities prices? I can’t see those coming back down. And Greggs’ actions can, surely, only delay the inevitable higher end prices. I wonder if that uncertainty might lie, at least in some way, behind the wide range of broker targets.
New bull cycle?
With a forecast price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 13.5, I don’t see the valuation needed to support fresh growth just now. And with that in mind, I think investors considering Greggs might do better to wait and see how the year progresses — as food inflation feeds through.
I do think Greggs is worth considering as a long-term dividend stock. But I don’t see any rush.
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Alan Oscroft does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
