Rolls-Royce Holdings shares have soared 1,320% in the past five years. But it’s not the biggest gain on the London stock market in that time.
No, five years ago, Filtronic (LSE: FTC) was a penny stock with a share price hovering around 11p. Today, those same shares are changing hands for 250p and the company is worth half a billion. That’s a gain of 2,220%. And it serves the same kind of industry Rolls is in — space, avionics, defence…
Satellite links
Filtronic was even further ahead at one point. Around its five-year high earlier this year, the stock was up over 3,700%! The first question, clearly, is what’s so good about it?
Filtronic designs and manufactures advanced radio frequency, microwave, and millimetre-wave electronics components. Those are crucial for the accuracy needed for 5G communications, aerospace and defence systems, and satellite communications.
There’s a major SpaceX factor here. Filtronic announced a tie-up to supply its leading-edge technology to SpaceX for use in the Starlink satellite network in 2024. As part of the deal, SpaceX has warrants in Filtronic that could allow it to build a 10%–15% stake.
So that’s more than just a customer/supplier relationship. Could we see a lucrative takeover offer from SpaceX in the future? I think it’s probably wise not to assume anything like that. But it might have helped boost the bullishness we’ve seen.
What next?
We need to see more contract wins here, as there’s clearly a lot of expectation built into the soaring share price. And those are happening, with new deals announced with a European defence firm and a US satellite company in recent months.
They’re not huge contracts, but this could mark a critical time to get a foot in.
Full-year results are due on 4 August, and that seems like an important date for growth stock investors’ calendars. Management expects “revenue of at least £55.5m, and adjusted EBITDA of at least £11.1m“, with earnings ahead of market expectations.
We should also see net cash, excluding property leases, of £11.3m. And that suggests a healthy trend we also see with Rolls-Royce shares.
So what’s it worth?
Analysts expect net cash at Filtronic to keep growing. It’s not in the same league as the much larger Rolls-Royce. But if they’re right, it could reach £25m by 2028.
That helps offset my main concern over the current valuation. We’re looking at a forecast price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 93! But with strong earnings rises predicted, that could drop to 44 by 2028.
And perhaps key, we could see a PEG ratio (P/E compared to earnings growth) of only 0.7 by then. Growth share investors typically treat anything under 1.0 as a good sign.
New growth phase?
I definitely don’t expect another 2,000%+ rise over the next five years. But this is a profitable company, with proven technology, in an industry with strong expansion potential. The high valuation has to be the biggest risk, and short-term share price weakness wouldn’t surprise me.
But filtronic has to be worth considering by growth investors who can take the risk. Personally, I’d consider combining it with a few diversified picks.
Should you invest £5,000 in Filtronic Plc right now?
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Alan Oscroft does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
