May was a funny month for the FTSE 100. It rose a modest 0.29% but with the world staring a massive energy shock in the face, things could have been a lot worse.
Closing on Friday (29 May) at 10,409.28, the UK blue-chip index is down 500 points from its all-time high on 27 February, the day before the Iran conflict began. So, what comes next?
What’s sustaining stock markets?
US markets rallied late on Friday after US President Donald Trump announced plans to lift the US blockade of crucial shipping lane Strait of Hormuz, as part of a peace deal. Brent crude plunged to $91 a barrel, the lowest in six weeks. That’s down from a peak of $118 on 29 April.
Personally, I think investors are getting ahead of themselves. Tehran is taking a hardline. Tanker traffic remains disrupted, inventories are shrinking, and Middle East production is still down.
Geopolitics isn’t the only thing driving markets. June brings the biggest IPO in history, when Elon Musk’s SpaceX floats. The excitement could reverberate across the market. While also triggering more talk of a tech and AI bubble.
I’m bracing myself for a bumpy summer, while staying alert for the many FTSE 100 buying opportunities it may throw up. We may be staring one in the face right now.
Is this beaten-down share worth considering?
The single worst FTSE 100 performer of the last three months is private equity specialist 3i Group (LSE: III). That’s terrible news for me, because until recently it was my biggest and most successful position. Not today, sadly, with the shares down 45% over the last year.
I did see the trouble coming. Investment trust 3i has been running a portfolio of companies since 1946, buying businesses, building them up, and selling them on. Yet, one of its purchases has been so successful, it now dominates the whole operation, making up more than 70% of the total 3i portfolio.
The company is non-food discount retailer Action, which has more than 3,300 stores across Europe. My concern was that its breakneck growth only needed to slow slightly for 3i to be punished. And that’s exactly what’s happened.
Can Action crack America?
On 14 May, Action reported a 14% rise in Q1 net sales to €4.01bn. Unfortunately, like-for-like sales growth slowed from 6.8% to 2.4%. Cooler weather, tougher comparisons, and the Iran conflict were blamed. Even a £750m share buyback couldn’t lift the mood. That’s the problem with setting high expectations.
But here’s the exciting bit. For years, 3i traded at a premium to net asset value. Now it’s at a massive 25% discount. The trailing dividend yield has climbed to 3.7%. The froth has gone, and I think it’s well worth considering today. It may remain volatile though, and could take some time to turn downbeat investor perceptions around. Much rests on Action’s ambitious plan to crack the famously tricky US market. But its recent fortunes show that even without a crash, there are still some tempting bargain opportunities out there.
Should you invest £5,000 in 3i Group Plc right now?
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Harvey Jones owns shares in 3i Group.
