The S&P 500‘s had a remarkable run. In the last five years, index investors have earned a total return of 91.5%, almost doubling their money. Yet now valuation concerns are getting louder.
With the index already delivering an 8.4% gain since the start of 2026, including dividends, analysts are starting to argue about whether this momentum can continue.
So let’s break down the latest forecasts and work out how much a £5,000 investment today could be worth by 2030.
What the experts are predicting
Given all the macroeconomic uncertainty in the world today, it’s no surprise that institutional investors aren’t united in their predictions.
Goldman Sachs forecasts a 6% annual return through to 2029. Bank of America sits slightly more cautiously, predicting only around 5% annual growth between now and the end of the decade. While JP Morgan offers the widest range, from 10% a year if artificial intelligence (AI) and decarbonisation deliver, or just 3% if a global recession takes hold.
| Scenario | Annual Return | £5,000 Becomes |
| JP Morgan (Bear Case) | 3% | £5,796.37 |
| Bank of America | 5% | £6,381.41 |
| Goldman Sachs | 6% | £6,691.13 |
| JP Morgan (Bull Case) | 10% | £8,052.55 |
Encouragingly, even in the most pessimistic scenario, patient investors are still on track to come out ahead, albeit by only a small amount.
But with such uncertainty in the market and valuations looking shaky, the current climate looks a perfect hunting ground for stock pickers rather than index investors. After all, even in today’s market environment, there continues to be plenty of non-AI-related stocks offering promising potential.
A non-tech compounder to consider?
One non-tech company from my portfolio that I’m keeping a close eye on is Mastercard (NYSE:MA). The global payments network sits at the infrastructure layer of the global digital economy, processing millions of transactions across 150+ currencies worldwide every day.
With the firm taking a small fee on each of these transactions, the business remains highly cash generative. And while a weakened consumer does create a near-term headwind, in the long run, the steady transition away from cash towards digital payments positions Mastercard nicely to thrive.
Don’t forget that cash still accounts for roughly 80% of global transactions by volume. And with middle-class populations in Asia, Africa, and Latin America on the rise, Mastercard may have barely scratched the surface of its global potential, backed by an impressive near-unassable competitive moat.
Does that make it a risk-free guaranteed winner?
Risk versus reward
Sadly not. Despite its robust financials and dominant position, Mastercard’s duopoly with Visa has drawn the ire of regulators. And card network fees have been receiving increased scrutiny across both Europe and the US. If regulators decide to step in, the firm’s bulky profit margins might end up getting heavily compressed.
Beyond that, it’s also impossible to ignore that many emerging countries are favouring alternative domestic payment networks that make it harder for Mastercard to gain a foothold.
Nevertheless, I remain optimistic for the long run. Mastercard’s already proven itself to be a steady compounder, providing mission-critical payment infrastructure that the whole world’s slowly becoming dependent on. That gives it a long runway to expand, and it’s why I’ve already added the S&P 500 stock to my portfolio.
Should you invest £5,000 in Mastercard right now?
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And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Mastercard made the list?
Zaven Boyrazian owns shares in Mastercard.
