I bought Glencore (LSE: GLEN) shares in the summer of 2023. I didn’t have any commodity stocks in my SIPP and decided it was time to add some exposure.
Mining stocks move in cycles. It takes years to locate a mine, secure permission and build it, yet the subsequent revenues can swing wildly with commodity prices and demand. So I decided to buy Glencore at a time when the shares looked unloved, then sit tight for the cyclical upswing.
That recovery has now arrived with a vengeance. Astonishingly, the Glencore share price has surged 110% over the last 12 months. Throw in the 2.25% trailing dividend yield and a £12,750 investment would have turned into £27,094, ignoring charges. That’s a spectacular one-year return, which shows the growth potential of FTSE 100 shares.
Can this FTSE 100 stock continue to soar?
I’m thrilled, but frustrated too. My shares dropped 40% before rebounding, so my overall gain stands closer to 25%. These are still early days though. I plan to hold for years.
The stock took a hammering last year as US tariffs and fears over global growth crushed mining shares. Since then, sentiment has flipped. The Iran conflict has barely dented momentum.
Glencore’s full-year results published on 18 February, before the war began, beat expectations. Revenue climbed 7% to $248bn as strong copper and gold prices lifted the metals division. Lower coal and energy prices hurt operating cash flow, which fell from $3.8bn to $1.8bn.
Net debt held steady at $11.2bn. That debt pile looks manageable to me given Glencore’s size and cash-generating ability, but commodity downturns can quickly stretch miners when profits fall.
Management still rewarded investors with $2bn of share buybacks as part of a total shareholder return package worth $3.5bn. There’s more on the way in 2026.
Copper remains the big attraction. Glencore keeps ramping up production as electrification, renewable energy and artificial intelligence drive soaring demand. Data centres consume vast quantities of copper and investors view the metal as a long-term structural growth story.
The group also owns a huge commodity trading operation. Volatile markets often create opportunities for traders as prices swing sharply between regions and supply chains tighten.
But is it too expensive to buy today?
Coal remains controversial because it generates huge carbon emissions and is in the political firing line as governments pursue net zero targets. Yet it still throws off enormous profits and continues to power large parts of the global economy.
Inflation and geopolitical turmoil usually support commodity prices because hard assets often hold value when currencies weaken and supply chains seize up. Here’s my key concern. After such a ferocious rally, investors risk buying this stock closer to the top of the cycle, than the bottom. The trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has soared to a dizzying 73.
Despite that, I think there’s an opportunity here. The forward P/E looks far more reasonable at 13.8. I’ll keep watching Glencore closely. I still think it should outperform the wider market over time. But after the recent spike, I’d suggest investors considering it approach with caution, and drip-feed money instead of diving in all at once.
Should you invest £5,000 in Glencore Plc right now?
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Harvey Jones owns shares in Glencore
