easyJet (LSE:EZJ) shares have had a rough five years. An investor who put £1,000 into the budget airline back in May 2021 has seen the value of that investment fall by as much as 65.1%!
Dividends have helped soften the blow. But even including those payments, the total loss still stands at a painful 55.9%, turning £1,000 into £441.
That’s a difficult track record to ignore. But with the stock now trading near multi-year lows, could all this uncertainty be quietly creating a hidden buying opportunity?
What’s weighing on the business right now?
The near-term picture for easyJet is genuinely challenging. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has sent jet fuel prices soaring, and the business has already warned that its first-half headline pre-tax loss will come in between £540m and £560m. That’s a significantly larger loss compared to the £394m reported a year ago.
Around £25m of that deterioration came directly from unhedged fuel costs in March alone. And with forward bookings running below last year’s levels at 63% versus 65% in 2025, the demand picture is cloudier than management would like.
CEO Kenton Jarvis acknowledged as much in the company’s April trading update: “The conflict in the Middle East has introduced near-term uncertainty around fuel costs and customer demand. As expected, the booking curve has shortened in recent weeks, resulting in lower-than-normal forward visibility.”
Those are genuine risks that investors need to weigh carefully. But with pessimism driving the decision-making, has a hidden opportunity emerged?
Could the recovery be closer than it looks?
Despite the headwinds, there are reasons to think the worst may already be priced in, with the business entering into this difficult period from a position of genuine financial strength.
It has £4.7bn of liquidity, holds an investment-grade balance sheet, and has 70% of its summer fuel requirements hedged at $706 per metric tonne. That’s well below the current market prices, providing some meaningful short-term protection while the geopolitical picture evolves.
Looking at the latest forecasts, earnings per share are expected to rise by a 13% annualised rate over the next two years. In other words, the experts believe the current headwinds are ultimately a cyclical rather than a structural problem.
So much so that the consensus share price target for easyJet shares currently stands at 445p – roughly 29.4% higher than where the stock’s trading today.
Is now the time to act?
There definitely appears to be a material gap between what the experts think easyJet is worth and where the shares are trading today.
However, personally, I’m not tempted just yet. The uncertainty around fuel costs and demand visibility makes it difficult to know whether we’re near the bottom of this cyclical downturn or if there is more room to fall.
It’s definitely a stock I think investors should keep a close eye on. But for now, I think there are more exciting opportunities to explore elsewhere.
Zaven Boyrazian has no position in any of the shares mentioned.
