Every time I think the BT (LSE: BT.A) share price has gone as high as it can, it forces me to think again. I now view it as one of the FTSE 100’s most impressive recovery stories. Largely because I never expected it to recover at all. I thought BT carried the stench of corporate decline. It looked too big, too sprawling. A cumbersome behemoth unfit for today’s fast-moving digital world.
There was the giant pension scheme and its mighty £20bn net debt pile too, which regularly exceeded the company’s market cap. Attempts to break into areas such as sports streaming looked like risky gambles. Yet BT has proved me wrong by staging a remarkable turnaround. Two years ago, the shares traded around 105p. Today, they sit near 237p , up roughly 125%. How did it manage that?
How did this FTSE 100 stock bounce back?
Chief executive Allison Kirkby has accelerated BT’s cost-cutting programme, sharpened the company’s focus on broadband and mobile, improved customer service scores and simplified products. Investors also welcome signs that BT has finally moved beyond peak spending on its giant Openreach fibre rollout. Kirkby is relaunching the BT Mobile brand as well, to sit alongside EE.
Underlying EBITDA profits have edged steadily higher. The growth isn’t spectacular, but it’s going in the right direction.
- 2025 — £8.21bn
- 2024 — £8.10bn
- 2023 — £7.90bn
- 2022 — £7.60bn
- 2021 — £7.40bn
Growth forecasts remain sluggish. For the year ending 31 March 2026, it expects EBITDA of between £8.2bn and £8.3bn.
Despite that. BT has shrugged off recent stock market volatility to find a fresh pair of legs. Its shares have climbed 6% in a week and almost 14% over three months.
The latest trading update, was published more than two months ago on 5 February. That showed underlying revenue slipping 4% to £5bn, mostly due to disposals. EBITDA fell at a slower 1% pace to £2.1bn, thanks to more cost savings. Further savings should follow as spending on the Openreach network eases. BT anticipates free cash flow of £1.5bn in 2026, down slightly from £1.6bn last year. Yet now it’s swung
Can it beat off some pretty stiff competition?
I have one big worry right now. Sector competition is getting tougher. FTSE 100 telecoms rival Vodafone has regained momentum after its £15bn merger with Three. Smaller, nimbler alt-net rivals keep nibbling away at its broadband customer base, and Elon Musk’s Starlink has entered the fray.
I’ve consistently underrated BT in recent years. As a result, I’ve missed out on a heap of share price growth and dividends. Today’s trailing yield no longer looks especially generous at 3.45%, but the valuation still tempts with a price-to-earnings ratio of around 12.5.
Markets don’t share my scepticism. Even so, telecoms remains brutally competitive and the BT brand still feels jaded to me. Kirkby is clearly up for the fight but I hesitate to buy BT shares today. However, I’ll keep watching BT closely to see if it proves me wrong all over again. It’s may be worth you keeping an eye on too. There could be more surprises ahead.
