The Scottish Mortgage (LSE:SMT) share price sits at around £12.82 as I write on Friday (3 April). However, there’s a credible, if a little speculative, path to £15 a share by year-end. It hinges on one name: SpaceX.
SpaceX bulls
The investment trust, which is run by Baillie Gifford, holds SpaceX as its largest single position, currently around 15%–16% of a total portfolio of roughly £15.2bn.
That stake is based on Scottish Mortgage’s December valuation, when a secondary share sale pegged SpaceX’s value at $800bn — already one of the most valuable companies in the world.
Since then, the trust’s listed holdings — TSMC, ASML, Nvidia and others — have been battered by the Iran war and market sell-off. Meanwhile the SpaceX position is largely unchanged at that December price. In reality, the SpaceX weighting has probably drifted higher.
The IPO could make a huge difference
SpaceX is roughly three times larger than Scottish Mortgage’s second-largest holding. This creates concentration risk, but clearly, the investment trust, has lots of conviction in SpaceX. As do I — in fact I believe it could be the largest company in the world in 2035.
Elon Musk has confirmed SpaceX is targeting an IPO, reportedly aiming for a valuation of $1.75trn. That’s more than double where it was marked in December.
Crude maths: Scottish Mortgage’s SpaceX stake is worth roughly £2.3bn today. At the IPO valuation, that climbs to around £5bn. On its own, that single re-rating would push net asset value (NAV) per share to somewhere around 1,455p. The trust trades at a discount to NAV, and has done for a while. But if the NAV were to rise 18%, then the share price would likely follow.
SpaceX’s momentum
There’s genuine momentum behind SpaceX right now. NASA’s Artemis II — the first crewed lunar flyby in over 50 years — launched this week, with SpaceX hardware central to the broader programme.
The agency has also expanded SpaceX’s role in future lunar missions, with Starship earmarked as a key component of the Artemis architecture through to at least Artemis V.
Meanwhile, Starlink — which uses satellites to provide internet to everyone from the Ukrainian military to ordinary Britons — generated over $8bn in profit in 2025. Revenue is growing by north of 50% a year.
The bottom line
None of this is a sure thing. Musk rarely sticks to timelines, IPOs can be delayed or mispriced, and private-to-public transitions almost never go smoothly.
What’s more, Scottish Mortgage isn’t low-risk even though it’s a diversified operation. The trust uses gearing — borrowing to invest — which amplifies losses as well as gains. Moreover, its private holdings, which make up a significant portion of the portfolio, are inherently illiquid and difficult to value accurately.
Still, with the shares trading below NAV and a potential IPO catalyst on the horizon, the maths of reaching £15 this year is achievable. I think it’s worth considering.
