BT Group (LSE:BT.A) shares have been on a bit of a rampage this year. The British telecommunications giant has seen its market-cap climb an impressive 40% since the start of 2025, far outpacing the FTSE 100. And for any investors who have been reinvesting dividends along the way, the total return has been closer to 44%
To put these gains into perspective, these returns mean that for every £1,000 invested in January, BT shareholders now have up to £1,430. Of course, the question now becomes, can BT continue to climb higher? Or is it too late to jump aboard the gravy train?
What the experts are saying
BT’s upward trajectory’s being driven by a variety of encouraging factors. Since Alison Kirby moved into the corner office, the company’s delivered close to £1bn of annualised savings, the firm’s fibre broadband rollout has accelerated, and free cash flow generation’s currently on track to reach £2bn a year by 2027.
The latter’s particularly exciting, given that it provides management with some financial flexibility to further tackle its still-problematic debt pile as well as chip away at the employee pension deficit. In other words, the cracks in the balance sheet are slowly being filled.
This ongoing recovery and improved shareholder value outlook have significantly improved investor sentiment over the last 12 months. And when looking at the latest analyst forecasts, most are citing the group’s improved earnings and free cash flow prospects as a reason to get excited alongside financial deleveraging.
However, with the stock now trading at around 206p, the valuation seems to already be in line with the 200p-220p price target range from institutions.
What now?
Let’s assume the analyst forecasts are accurate, and BT’s future growth prospects are indeed already baked into its share price. In that case, the company will likely need to exceed expectations to continue delivering impressive double-digit gains.
The good news is, there are some catalysts that could trigger this. Most notably is the ongoing speculation that management might be looking to spin off its struggling Openreach business. If this move were to happen, BT would effectively become a fibre pure-play business with much stronger growth potential, no longer being bogged down by capital-intensive infrastructure.
It would also shift a lot of the firm’s outstanding debt to the new business and free up more spare cash flow. Combined, it would ultimately provide management with more flexibility to fund future growth and potentially attract a higher valuation multiple compared to its current integrated telecommunications business.
Sadly, there’s no guarantee management will commit to this strategy. And even if it does, the actual returns may fall short of theoretical expectations. Therefore personally, I’m in no hurry to buy BT shares today, instead looking elsewhere for more solid opportunities.
