Hunting for stocks to buy, many investors are put off by shares that have already surged to become clear winners. But that may not always be the right approach.
What matters more is whether fundamentals remain intact and whether the market has already priced in future earnings growth — because if it hasn’t, today’s winners may still have further to run.
Copper, the new gold
Glencore shares (LSE: GLEN) have surged over the past 12 months, with the investment case increasingly shifting towards copper.
Demand drivers are well known — electrification, grid expansion, AI-driven data centres, and a revival in industrial investment across the US and beyond.
What is changing now is the supply side. The market is beginning to recognise that future copper demand is likely to outstrip new supply by a wide margin. Glencore’s own long-term modelling suggests a structural shortfall of around 27m tonnes by 2050.
Source: Glencore
Against this backdrop, the group is targeting a major step-up in copper production, lifting output towards 1.6m tonnes by 2035. That marks a clear shift in strategy, driven by stronger pricing signals in recent years.
Risks remain. Commodity prices are inherently volatile, and any slowdown in global growth or disruption to mining operations could quickly impact earnings momentum.
Silver — a volatile metal
Fresnillo shares (LSE: FRES) have had a far more volatile ride. After a sharp spike towards $120, silver prices has since retreated and consolidated in the $70s, leaving some investors questioning whether the move has run its course.
On the surface, sentiment has cooled. But underneath, little has really changed.
Over the longer-term trend, silver has effectively moved sideways for months — a sign of consolidation rather than breakdown.
Structural demand
At the same time, structural demand pressures remain in place. Central bank buying, particularly in Asia, continues to underpin physical demand. Meanwhile, inventories across key pricing hubs such as COMEX and the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) remain tight.
Beyond monetary demand, silver also carries an industrial profile increasingly similar to copper. It has a growing use in electrification, electronics, and energy transition technologies.
Taken together, this suggests a market still underpinned by firm long-term demand dynamics, even if short-term price action has shaken confidence. Calls for a return to $20-$30 levels look increasingly disconnected from the structural picture, in my opinion.
What matters for Fresnillo is the margin profile. With all-in sustaining costs (AISC) around $20, even mid-$70 silver prices imply very strong operating leverage, with incremental gains flowing disproportionately into profits.
Risks remain. Energy costs in particular are a key input and could erode margins if they remain elevated or rise further, alongside normal commodity price volatility.
Taken together with Glencore, both stocks sit within the same broader theme — the early stages of a potential commodities supercycle driven by structural supply constraints.
I’ve recently added to my Fresnillo holding on the pullback, having taken advantage of the weakness in the share price, which is still down around 25% from recent highs. In Glencore, I already hold a significant position, having been adding further over the past few months as the copper story has strengthened.
Should you invest £5,000 in Fresnillo Plc right now?
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Andrew Mackie owns shares in Glencore and Fresnillo.
