That framing captures part of the story — but not all of it.

Under new leadership, the focus has shifted towards a simpler, more disciplined operating model, with greater emphasis on capital allocation, balance sheet strength, and operational focus.

The key question is whether investors still see BP simply as a cyclical oil producer. If so, they may be overlooking how much the investment case now rests on the quality of its core assets.

High-quality asset base

To understand BP today, it’s important to look beyond the headline oil price narrative and focus on the underlying quality of its asset base.

While the market still tends to treat it as a broadly cyclical energy producer, the reality is more nuanced. The group’s value is increasingly concentrated in a smaller number of high-quality, long-life assets — and these are not all equal.

Its US position, in particular, stands out. BP has built a significant integrated footprint across upstream, downstream, and trading. There’s also growing emphasis on onshore production through bpx, alongside offshore opportunities in the Paleogene basin.

These are long-duration assets with scale and visibility that differ meaningfully from more marginal production elsewhere in the portfolio.

Beyond the US, it also retains strong positions in regions such as the Middle East and Azerbaijan-Georgia-Türkiye (AGT). At the same time, management continues to reshape the portfolio, exiting non-core assets where capital can be deployed more effectively.

The key point for investors is that this creates clear dispersion within the business. Not every barrel, asset, or geography contributes equally to long-term value creation.

In my view, that’s where the opportunity may lie. As the portfolio becomes more focused around higher-quality production hubs, the underlying earnings power of the business may be stronger — and more resilient — than headline sentiment suggests.

What could go wrong?

Of course, there are still clear risks to this investment case. While BP is moving towards a more disciplined and simplified operating model, the success of that shift ultimately depends on execution rather than intention.

Portfolio restructuring and asset concentration don’t automatically translate into higher returns if operational performance across key regions fails to deliver.

There’s also a risk that the market continues to apply a broad cyclical energy multiple to the business, regardless of internal improvements, limiting any meaningful re-rating.

In addition, the focus on a smaller number of core, higher-quality assets increases exposure to regional operational issues or production disruptions, particularly in key growth areas such as the US. Even with a stronger asset base, concentration can cut both ways.

Closing remarks

Overall, BP shares still look like they are being valued through a traditional oil-cycle lens, rather than on the evolving quality and concentration of its underlying asset base.

While execution will always matter in a business of this scale, the direction of travel is towards a simpler, more focused, and potentially higher-quality earnings stream than the market currently gives credit for.

If that shift continues to play out, today’s valuation may come to look overly cautious in hindsight.

For long-term investors willing to look beyond short-term commodity noise, BP remains one to consider.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Bp P.l.c. made the list?

Andrew Mackie owns shares in BP.

The post BP shares: still priced as an oil major — but the market may be behind the curve appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Manifold denies the allegations and I don’t know the full facts. But what does it all mean for investors? 

What exactly do you do?

Disclosure: I’m a Spurs fan.

A company’s chair is a bit like a football club’s director of football. If – like me – you’re a Spurs supporter, that might not be much help.

In theory, the job of a director of football isn’t just to oversee the club getting nearly relegated two seasons running. It’s actually to do useful stuff. 

That includes establishing the footballing identity and overseeing the head coach. With a company, the chair does something similar. 

The role of chair includes things like overseeing the CEO and defining the organisation’s culture. And for BP, those are really important.

Albert Manifold has just been removed from the role. Whether or not that’s the right move, it’s vital that BP gets its next appointment right.

BP’s transformation

BP’s ventures into renewables over the last few years have been a huge unforced error. So the firm appointed Meg O’Neill as CEO in April to shift back to hydrocarbons.

This looks like the right move to me. In many ways, it’s similar to Spurs bringing in Roberto de Zerbi to fend off a relegation crisis at around the same time.

With that job accomplished – just – Spurs now need to back their manager. And the same goes for BP as it looks to refocus on its core competencies. 

If Meg O’Neill is going to turn the organisation around, she’s going to have to be able to work with the chair. So having the right person in that role is crucial.

What difference will it make?

In the short term, Manifold’s departure isn’t going to make much difference. BP won’t drill more or less oil, or be able to sell it for higher or lower prices.

In much the same way, Spurs don’t win or lose at the weekend because they’ve decided to keep or dispense with their director of football.

From a long-term perspective, though, it matters much more. For Spurs, one result isn’t attributable to the director of football, but overall seasons are. 

In the same way, BP’s long-term earnings depend on Meg O’Neill’s ability to execute a strategic shift. So a move to support this can only be a good thing.

Despite this, the stock is down. So does that mean there’s an opportunity for investors to buy the stock at an attractive price?

Should I buy BP shares?

As a Spurs fan, I’m acutely aware of what a dysfunctional organisation looks like. But it’s not something I actively try to seek out. 

BP, however, is in the process of transformation. And that means there could be a lot to gain from things getting back on track. 

With oil prices where they are, I’m not convinced that right now is the time to be investing in this industry. But BP is on my list if things change.

The firm is doing the right things. Whether or not I can say the same for Spurs remains to be seen…

Stephen Wright does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned.

The post Down 9.82% in a week! Here’s why BP shares are the Spurs of the FTSE 100 appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

There have been ups and downs in recent weeks, depending on the prospects for peace. Yet overall, BP shares have done well. They’re up 16% in the last three months, and a stunning 53% over one year. Dividends are on top. Long-term BP investors might also say that it’s about time too.

Despite that strong run, the stock trades at roughly the same level as it did at the start of the millennium. It’s had a bumpy 25 years, plunging with the rest of the market after the 2001 dotcom crash, and taking further hits from the financial crisis in 2007, the Deepwater Horizon tragedy in 2010, and Covid lockdowns in 2020.

So how is the FTSE 100 stock doing today?

The Ukraine war drove up the oil price but also forced BP to take a massive £25bn hit on its stake in Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft. The group also battled with boardroom issues, which saw the last two CEOs, Bernard Looney and Murray Auchincloss, depart suddenly. It’s also struggled to respond to climate change pressures.

Q1 results (28 April) revealed a strong start to 2026, with quarterly revenue up £5.3bn to £52.3bn. BP’s trading division struck black gold, as customers raced to secure energy supplies. However, investors can’t assume this will continue. So much depends on what happens to Iran and the oil price.

BP’s bumper profits also attracted fresh attention from the Treasury. The current ‘windfall’ charge already accounts for around a third of the total taxes it pays to the UK government. Now Chancellor Rachel Reeves has scrapped a tax rule allowing oil and gas companies to offset UK profits against overseas losses, to fund a £1.8bn cost-of-living support package.

Is the oil giant worth considering?

Today (25 May), there’s another issue to consider following reports that the US has struck a peace deal that would see Iran give up uranium and open the Strait of Hormuz. If the market wasn’t closed for a Bank Holiday, I’d imagine the FTSE 100 would be soaring, and BP shares would be heading the other way. Although you never know with these things.

You never know with Donald Trump’s peace deals either. This one could stall, at which point, BP shares might bounce.

Energy tends to be a cyclical sector. I’d much rather buy a stock like BP at the bottom than the top. That’s why I added it to my SIPP some 18 months ago, when it was firmly out of favour. I now plan to hold throughout the cycle, reinvesting every dividend I receive.

Despite its recent success, the forward price-to-earnings ratio is a modest 8.2. Plus there’s some meaty income, with a 4.6% forecast yield. Share buybacks remain on hold, sadly. I’m wary of buying today. Yet long-term investors might still consider buying if a dip happens. We might get one very soon.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Bp P.l.c. made the list?

Harvey Jones owns shares in BP. 

The post Is the great BP share price party about to come to a crashing halt?  appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

For a business that has said every $1 move in the oil price can swing pre‑tax operating profit by $340m, that kind of price action really matters.

So, is this just a short‑term spike – or the start of something lasting for BP investors?

Factors supporting further growth

When crude stays high, BP’s earnings engine usually hums. Recent quarters have shown that clearly, with the company reporting a first‑quarter underlying profit of $3.2bn.

That’s more than double the same period a year earlier, helped by what it called an “exceptional contribution” from oil trading and stronger refining margins. 

So aside from refining oil, it’s cashing in on volatile energy markets, 

UK policy may add another benefit, with Rachel Reeves reportedly planning to extend the current 5p per litre duty tax on motor fuel rather than raise it.

That won’t transform BP’s fortunes overnight, but holding down pump prices tends to support demand at the margin.

If oil stays expensive and governments avoid hitting drivers with extra tax, could BP’s cash flows stay stronger for longer?

The income (and value) appeal

On some measures, BP still looks surprisingly cheap. Using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model, the shares are estimated to trade around 57% below fair value. That’s based on earnings forecasts that expect growth of 10.39% per year going forward.

It won’t necessarily pan out that way, but it does echo other analysts that see BP as deeply undervalued on long‑term cash generation.

As one analyst put it, BP “appears underpriced given the strategic improvement story overlayed on a backdrop of high oil prices.”

For most investors, though, it’s the well-covered dividends that add real appeal.

• Dividend yield: 4.5%
• Dividend per share: 25p
• Cash coverage: 6.8 times

Plus, it’s already raised this year’s Q1 dividend by 4%, backed by substantial share buybacks in recent periods.

But that doesn’t mean it’s a guaranteed cash machine.

A challenging road ahead

High oil prices won’t solve all of BP’s problems. Negotiations with union members at BP’s Indiana refinery have resumed, but both sides are still far from agreeing on job security, pay and other terms.

It’s also reshaping its portfolio, having sold gas assets abroad and potentially dismantling parts of its pipeline gas trading team. That could sharpen the focus on higher‑return projects, but it also adds execution risk.

The high sensitivity to crude prices and political shocks is the core concern. If oil were to retreat sharply, or regulations tightened, would today’s ‘cheap’ valuation still look so attractive?

My verdict

Clearly, BP still has a lot to offer for investors who want exposure to traditional energy and can handle a bumpy ride. High oil prices, strong trading results and a covered 4.5% dividend certainly add appeal.

But it still faces geopolitical shocks, industrial disputes and execution risk.

For me, the income story alone is worth considering, which is why I’ll keep holding my shares even while oil swings wildly.

Mark Hartley owns shares in BP.

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However, focusing too closely on short-term commodity swings may miss a more gradual shift taking place within the business.

So is BP still best understood as an oil price play — or is a more structural change underway?

Evolving strategy

BP’s latest update signals a shift in strategy under its new CEO, with the group moving towards a clearer upstream and downstream structure.

The goal is to simplify operations by separating distinct parts of the business. Upstream focuses on finding and producing oil and gas. Downstream focuses on refining, products, and supplying fuels such as gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel to customers.

Management believes this separation can improve accountability, speed up decision-making, and sharpen operational focus. It should also help each division concentrate on its own performance rather than operating within a highly integrated structure.

Of course, success will depend on execution. Teams must adapt to new workflows and responsibilities for the reorganisation to deliver its intended benefits.

If management gets this right, the result could be a simpler and more focused operating model.

What comes next may matter just as much: can this simplification effort translate into a stronger balance sheet?

Strengthening the balance sheet

One of the key weaknesses over recent years has been pressure on the company’s balance sheet, driven by elevated share buybacks and write-downs across parts of its renewables portfolio.

A key priority is now reducing net debt and improving credit quality, with a target range of $14bn-$18bn by the end of 2027. This signals a clearer focus on financial resilience through the cycle.

Another important step is the reduction of so-called hybrid bonds. These instruments sit between debt and equity and have historically formed part of the capital structure. The group currently has around $13bn outstanding.

It now plans to reduce this to around $9bn over time, mainly by allowing selected bonds to reach their first call dates in 2026 and 2027 rather than refinancing them. In practical terms, this reduces complexity and lowers long-term financial commitments.

Alongside this, capital spending is expected to remain disciplined at around $13bn-$13.5bn per year, reinforcing a more controlled approach to investment and cash allocation.

Overall, the direction of travel is towards a simpler and more financially resilient business, with greater flexibility to support dividends, investment, and potential shareholder returns over time.

What’s the verdict?

Taken together, the changes point towards a more disciplined and financially resilient oil major. While the business will always remain exposed to energy price volatility, the shift towards simplification and a stronger balance sheet improves the quality of returns on offer.

For investors, that matters. It suggests a group that’s becoming less dependent on favourable oil price conditions to deliver value.

In my view, this makes the shares more interesting than they have been for some time, particularly for long-term investors.

Andrew Mackie owns shares in BP.

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That already shows in the numbers. Underlying profit more than doubled to $3.2bn in the first quarter of 2026. The Iran war started on 28 February, so the impact only really landed in March, the final month of the quarter. That raises an obvious question. Will Q2 be an absolute stormer?

Can BP keep riding the oil price surge?

I think it probably can. And not just because crude prices have soared, allowing producers to sell oil at a premium. The Middle East conflict has created huge volatility, which has boosted BP’s trading arm. Management called its Q1 trading performance “exceptional”.

BP’s refining operations are also firing on all cylinders, helped by stronger demand for diesel and jet fuel. The shares have responded in style. BP’s up almost 25% in 2026 and 46% over 12 months. With a trailing yield of 4.6% on top.

Any Stocks and Shares ISA investor holding BP will be thrilled with that, as it may offset losses elsewhere. Diversification at its best. But another question nags at me. Is it too late to buy BP today?

As I write, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. If that continues, the world could face a summer of oil shortages. There’s talk of crude hitting $140, $150 or even $200 a barrel. In some corners of the market, we’re almost there. Traders now pay close to $150 for immediate physical delivery of certain crude grades. But if you think that sounds like a cast-iron case to buy BP shares today, I’d urge caution.

What could knock BP shares off course?

BP produces roughly 411,000 barrels a day across Iraq, Oman and the UAE. It can’t profit from oil it can’t transport. And there’s another threat.

Politicians may also look at BP’s soaring profits and decide to tighten that windfall tax. That would prove popular with voters grappling with higher petrol and energy bills.

The BP share price also dances to Donald Trump’s tune. One social media post can send crude prices soaring or slumping. If Hormuz reopens, traders could start pricing in lower oil prices again, dragging BP shares down. This is not a one-way bet.

BP’s profits also swing wildly from year to year. Check out at its annual net income for the past five years.

• 2025 – $54m
• 2024 – $390m
• 2023 – $15.2bn
• 2022 – ($2.49bn)
• 2021 – $7.56bn

That net loss in 2022 was down to a $24bn write-off as it exited Russia’s Rosneft following the Ukraine invasion. All that may explain BP’s temptingly-low forward price-to-earnings ratio of 8.1. Analysts forecast a yield of 4.7% this year, rising to 4.9% in 2027. That’s also tempting.

I bought BP in September 2024 and I’m delighted I did. Would I buy it today? Personally, I’d tread carefully. The BP share price could go anywhere from here. Commodity stocks move in cycles, and right now we’re closer to the top than the bottom.

I’ll be keeping a close watch on BP though. Another buying opportunity could present itself at any moment. If you need the diversification this stock offers, I suggest you keep your eyes peeled too.

The post Are BP shares the ultimate ISA buy? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

A popular way of doing that is to invest in a spread of FTSE 100 companies, inside a Stocks and Shares ISA. UK blue-chips pay among the most generous dividends in the world. Some yield as much as 5%, 6% or 7%, with potential share price growth on top. 

That £692 adds up to £36,000 over a full year. Generating the capital to fund that income will take time, but can be done with discipline and patience. Better still, inside an ISA there’s no tax to pay. So it’s worth more than it seems.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice. Readers are responsible for carrying out their own due diligence and for obtaining professional advice before making any investment decisions.

Can I really earn that level of income?

Investing is riskier than leaving money in a Cash ISA. But history shows long-term returns are much higher. Over the last decade, the average Stocks and Shares ISA returned 9.5%, against just 4% for the average Cash ISA. My table shows how the difference builds over the years. After a decade or two, it’s massive.

Cash ISAs work best for short-term savings, rather than long-term wealth-building. Ideally, investors should ideally aim to build a balanced portfolio of at least a dozen stocks from a spread of sectors. One FTSE 100 stock that’s done well lately is oil and gas giant BP (LSE: BP).

The BP share price is up 40% in the last year, and 70% over five years. Long-term investors have got plenty of dividends on top, with the stock typically yielding around 5% in that time. Following the share price surge, the trailing yield has slipped to 4.5%. That’s still a pretty good rate of income.

So how big a pot do I need?

Of course, not every investor would want to buy BP. Fossil fuels are a controversial area. Also, BP has bungled its strategy, making a shift into renewables, then beating an embarrassing retreat. The crisis in Iran has given BP shares a short-term lift. Yet investors are wary, because we don’t know what will happen next in the Gulf. If there’s a peace deal and the oil price retreats, BP could slip. That might also offer a buying opportunity.

Despite these risks, I hold the stock myself. Even with the energy transition, the world needs fossil fuels for decades to come. There will be ups and downs in the share price but with luck, the dividends will keep rolling in. I’ve matched BP with different dividend stocks, including Lloyds, insurer Legal & General, pharmaceutical giant GSK and housebuilder Taylor Wimpey. 

So how much do investors need to generate a second income of £692 a week? Let’s say their ISA portfolio returns that annual 9.5% average. In that scenario, they’d need £315,789. Building that kind of wealth takes time, but it can be done. The sooner you get going, the better.

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BP: beginnings in Persia

BP began life in 1909 as the Anglo-Persian Oil Company, later becoming the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company in 1935 and then the British Petroleum Company in 1954. After merging with US rival Amoco in 1998, it briefly became BP Amoco before rebranding to BP in 2000.

For decades, BP was owned by the British state and its people. In 1977, the UK started selling off its stake to private investors, including a disastrous sale to the public coinciding with the Black Monday stock-market crash of 19 October 1987. Since then, BP has been a stalwart of the UK’s elite FTSE 100 index.

What’s fascinating to me is that the share price of this global energy giant has basically gone nowhere since April 1999. On Friday (8 May) the stock closed at 535.6p, around 6% below its closing price 27 years ago. Then again, the shares have leapt 43.9% over the past year and 70.8% over five years, again excluding dividends.

BP: bouncing price

That said, BP shares have been way more volatile than usual so far this calendar year. The good news for shareholders is that the share price has jumped 23.8% in 2026, with much of this bounce coming after the US attacked Iran on 28 February.

However, the shares have jumped around from a 2026 intraday low of 413.3p to a peak of 609.4p on 31 March. That’s an unusually wide range in a little over four months. What’s the cause? Three factors — the oil price, the US/Israel-Iran war, and the pronouncements of President Donald Trump — are driving the price up and down.

With the latest Middle East war settling into an uneasy stalemate, the BP price has dropped 12.1% from its March high. Meanwhile, the oil price has dipped by only 3.4% over this timeframe. To me, this suggest that BP’s valuation may have got a bit ahead of itself in March’s buying frenzy.

BP: bigger price?

Speaking of valuation, BP’s current market value stands at £84.6bn, making it a FTSE 100 heavyweight. Rising quarterly dividend payouts have boosted this stock’s dividend yield to 4.6% a year. That’s well ahead of the wider Footsie‘s yearly cash yield of roughly 3%.

In my view, the shares look like a simple binary bet on the Iran war and the oil price. If the conflict drags on, then problems in the Strait of Hormuz could crimp global oil supply and pump up oil prices. Conversely, if the war ends swiftly or convincingly, then falling energy prices could drag down BP’s valuation.

My family portfolio holds BP shares, having paid 484.1p a share for our stake in August 2023. Given the healthy income they pay, plus their use as a hedge against rising energy bills, I will hold on tightly to this shareholding for now. Likewise, value investors could consider buying BP stock for its healthy dividends and exposure to oil and gas prices.

The post Here’s why 2026 has been bumpy for the BP share price appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

But is the market still treating the oil major too much like a simple bet on the direction of oil prices?

In my opinion that view may be too narrow. I see its earnings profile as far more complex — and in some cases even benefiting from volatility.

Oil proxy

While oil prices clearly matter over the longer term, they don’t translate into earnings on a one-to-one basis. The relationship between headline commodity prices and reported financial performance is more complex than many investors assume.

That creates a disconnect. The market often reacts as though the company’s earnings move directly with daily oil price fluctuations, when in reality the transmission is more indirect and uneven.

Understanding that gap is key to assessing what really drives the investment case.

To see why, it helps to look at how the business actually generates its earnings.

Earnings don’t move in step with prices

Reported earnings are not a simple reflection of spot oil prices. Instead, they are shaped by timing effects, contract structures, and pricing mechanisms that mean changes in crude prices don’t flow through immediately — or evenly — into financial results.

For example, the company noted during Q1 that some Gulf of America sales are priced on a one-month lag, meaning current oil price movements may only appear in earnings in later periods. Similar timing effects occur across its trading and production portfolio.

Refining adds another layer of complexity. Margins are influenced not just by crude prices, but also by product spreads, freight costs, and regional differentials. As a result, realised margins can diverge meaningfully from widely watched industry indicators.

The key point is that BP’s earnings are staggered and multi-layered, not a direct mirror of day-to-day oil price movements.

What’s the verdict?

Even if BP is more complex than a simple oil proxy, it’s still exposed to structural earnings volatility.

Upstream performance remains tied to commodity cycles over time. Refining margins can swing sharply depending on product spreads and regional differentials, while trading results add another layer of variability. In other words, complexity doesn’t equal stability.

That matters because it feeds into how the market values the business. Earnings are inherently difficult to forecast, and cash flows can be uneven from period to period.

As a result, oil majors trade as much on sentiment as fundamentals. That raises an important question for investors: even if the market misreads the earnings structure, will that mispricing actually correct?

In other words, complexity may reduce the simplicity of the ‘oil bet’ narrative — but it doesn’t necessarily remove uncertainty, either in earnings or in valuation.

For me, that mix of volatility and visibility is exactly the point. I view BP as a portfolio hedge. Its exposure to energy shocks and inflationary cycles offers diversification, while cash generation and dividends behave differently from broader equity market drivers over time.

That’s why I continue to hold it as part of my portfolio, and view it as one to consider.

The post BP shares: still treated as an oil bet — but that may be outdated appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Last Thursday (28 April) was particularly volatile for oil, with Brent crude rocketing to $124 a barrel. It’s since retreated to $112 but Macquarie Group warns it could hit $200 if the Iran war drags into June. Despite the threat, BP shares are down 5% in the last month. That’s very odd. Here’s what I think is happening.

Why is this stock slipping?

First, the FTSE 100 oil giant has had a jolly good run. Its shares are up an eye-popping 61% in the last year. Investors may be reluctant to bid the stock even higher. Also, people will have noted that whenever Donald Trump declares good news in the Gulf, the oil price quickly dips, and so do BP shares. We’d all love to see the conflict speedily resolved so the bombing can stop and the oil price retreat, but the impact on BP shares would be brutal.

This is therefore a risky stock to buy with a short-term view. It could slump if the conflict is resolved, even though it’ll take months to restore oil supply

Iran could hit the long-term case

There are long-term threats too. The Iran crisis has reminded us that the world still runs on oil. But it’s also shown consuming nations just how vulnerable they are to bottlenecks in the most geopolitically sensitive shipping passage in the world. This could accelerate the shift away from fossil fuels and towards home-grown renewables.

Also, the war is hitting infrastructure, and BP faces both longer shipping routes and higher operating costs. Its net debt was already a hefty $25.3bn in Q1. There are other concerns: as UK consumers struggle, oil giant profits could make a tempting target for politicians, and BP could face even tougher windfall taxes.

So is it too risky to buy at today’s price of 575p? It does have a modest forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 8.5. But 2026 earnings could prove highly volatile, so we shouldn’t rely too much on that. So here’s the case, as I see it.

What should investors do?

Investors are wary of buying BP after such a strong run and fear making a quickfire loss due to an event they simply cannot predict: the outcome of this war. Many suspect the big gains have already been made, and today’s buyers risk making outsized losses. Even a 4.3% trailing dividend yield doesn’t compensate for that.

I’m delighted to hold the shares myself, but reluctant to buy more given today’s uncertainy. This volatile stock market has thrown up plenty of buying opportunities, and most are a lot less binary than this one. I’ve just bought two FTSE 100 stocks in an entirely different sector. But I’ll be keeping a close eye on the BP share price, as we may be handed a tempting entry point in the weeks ahead.

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