Helping factors

The biggest driver so far this year has been the oil price. Tensions in the Middle East have pushed Brent crude sharply higher, boosting profits across the energy sector. BP has been one of the biggest beneficiaries, not only because it produces millions of barrels of oil and gas every day, but because its trading division has also capitalised on heightened market volatility. Q1 results showed net income of $3.2bn more than doubling year on year.

Management has also been working hard to improve the balance sheet. In a trading update from earlier in July, net debt was forecast to decrease to around $23bn from $25.3bn. This continues the trend over recent quarters, with the stronger finances helping to pay down borrowings.

Further potential gains

The current BP share price is 517p. The average 12 month analyst forecast is 596p. This reflects just over a 15% potential return. In terms of more details, the highest target is 700p from the team at RBC Capital Markets, with notable others including Barclays and Goldman Sachs at 650p each. In fact, of the 22 contributors I can access, only two have a target price below the current share price.

Of course, the projections shouldn’t be taken as gospel. However, it’s certainly an encouraging sign when the broad trend and consensus among City experts point to the stock rallying.

From my perspective, there are a couple of fundamental reasons why I think the business outlook could support the numbers mentioned above.

For one, BP has shifted its strategy back towards its traditional strengths. After years of trying to balance renewable energy investments with oil and gas production, the company has refocused on higher-return hydrocarbon projects and simplified its portfolio.

The other factor is my oil price outlook. I don’t see the conflict in the Middle East ending any time soon, and the 16% jump in Brent Crude oil prices last week from escalating tensions shows how quickly things can move. Therefore, higher-for-longer oil prices should enable BP to generate substantial free cash flow. That would support dividends, further debt reduction and potentially larger share buybacks, all of which could provide a boost for the share price.

Talking risks

The most obvious risk is that my view on the Middle East is wrong and a much-desired lasting peace deal means oil prices retreat. BP remains very sensitive to commodity prices, and a sharp move lower would almost certainly feed through into weaker profits.

Production is another area to watch. BP has already indicated that upstream output may soften because of maintenance and operational factors. So if we get a combination of lower output and lower prices, this wouldn’t be a great mix.

Ultimately, I agree with the experts about the target price for the coming year, so I am considering adding the stock to my portfolio. Investors who agree with my view could consider doing the same.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

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But with BP shares currently trading at around 515p, the question every investor’s now asking is whether there’s more fuel left in the tank. Let’s investigate.

A blockbuster second quarter

In its latest second-quarter trading statement for 2026, the company paints a very encouraging picture.

Brent crude averaged $103.85 per barrel during the period, up sharply from $81.13 in the first quarter. That’s a huge tailwind for oil production revenues. And don’t forget that BP’s own rule of thumb suggests that every $1 rise in the Brent price adds $340m to pre-tax profits annually.

The refining side of the business is looking even more impressive. BP’s Refining Indicator Margin (RIM) nearly doubled quarter-on-quarter to $29.6 per barrel from $16.9. And it’s a perfect demonstration of the business enjoying impressive operating leverage within a rising price environment.

Meanwhile, the balance sheet’s being actively strengthened. Net debt’s on track to fall from $25.3bn to $22bn-$23bn. And after redeeming €2.5bn of perpetual hybrid bonds in June, the company’s also making steady progress in simplifying its financial structure.

But what does this all mean for BP share price? Looking at the latest analyst forecasts, it seems most institutional investors think BP shares are likely to keep marching upwards. While there’s a fairly broad range of opinions, the average consensus suggests the oil & gas stock could climb to 599p by this time next year, with one analyst issuing a 700p price target.

Needless to say, this is a pretty strong vote of confidence. So is this a no-brainer?

What’s holding it back?

Despite what the impressive numbers suggest, not everything’s hunky dory at BP. Production volumes are actually falling at the moment, with the impact being offset by higher commodity prices. Part of this is being driven by regular scheduled maintenance.

However, another significant disruptive factor is the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which management has no control over.

Even beyond the geopolitical turmoil, there are also some genuine execution concerns to consider. BP’s still in the process of implementing a strategic reset, divesting underperforming assets and paying down debts in the process.

As previously mentioned, the group’s making strides here, but it nonetheless adds complexity that could prevent it from fully capitalising on the current energy price tailwinds.

So what’s the verdict?

Overall, BP’s a business that’s quietly doing a lot of things right. The balance sheet’s improving, refining margins are strong, and the oil price tailwind is firmly behind it heading into the second half.

There are still significant risks to watch closely. But overall, for investors seeking exposure to the energy sector, this FTSE 100 business could be worth a closer look.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

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Zaven Boyrazian does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.

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When there’s talk of a peace deal between the US and Iran, the oil price falls and BP shares follow as investors anticipate lower revenues and profits. When hostilities sadly ratchet up, crude climbs and so does BP.

I hold the FTSE 100 oil giant in my Self-Invested Personal Pension (SIPP), and it’s a rare point of light on the bad days, when most of my other holdings are falling. A little diversification can go a long way.

Is this FTSE 100 growth stock too volatile?

BP shares climbed 4.5% last week as fighting in the Gulf tragically intensified. They’re now up 29% over one year and more than 80% over five. Dividends come on top of that, lifting the total five-year return to around 110%. It’s been a good investment, and yet the company as a whole is thought to have lost its way.

BP has had a torrid 15 years since the Deepwater Horizon tragedy in 2010. It’s been a strategic mess, charging into renewables then flying back into fossil fuels. It’s endured constant boardroom upheavals, working through three chairs and four chief executives in three years. Yet the shares have climbed and the dividends have kept flowing. We’ve had generous $750m quarterly share buybacks too, although these are currently paused as the board focuses on working down its $22bn net debt.

The threats are standing in line. Climate change risks could trigger tighter regulation while cash-strapped governments could impose fresh windfall taxes. There’s talk of an oil glut next year, which could knock the oil price, although that depends on geopolitics. The transition to electric vehicles may curb a key source of demand. On the other hand, we’ll still need oil for products ranging from fertiliser and petrochemicals to paints and animal feed.

So what do the experts make of all this? They’re looking on the bright side. The BP consensus one-year share price target is 607p. If correct, that would represent growth of 17.4% from today’s 517p. Throw in the forecast yield of 4.9% and the total return comes to 22.3%. Of course, these are only forecasts, but if they’re right, a £12,000 investment today would grow to £14,676 by July 2027. That would be a very respectable return, although it’s far from guaranteed.

Some 31 analysts have issued ratings over the past three months, and there are signs enthusiasm is ebbing:

• Strong Buy: 12
• Buy: 2
• Hold: 13
• Sell: 2
• Strong Sell: 2

There’s plenty of caution here, very few outright sellers. That mixed verdict is reflected in the valuation, which is hardly demanding withn a forward price-to-earnings ratio of just 7.7.

Any investor approaching BP today must brace themselves for plenty of volatility. But I still think it’s still well worth considering as part of a balanced portfolio. As ever, investors need to look beyond the short-term ups and downs, and take the long-term view.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Bp P.l.c. made the list?

Harvey Jones owns shares in BP.

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Shell has also fallen during that period, but its 14% decline is less than that of its local rival.

So, might the BP share price come storming back?

Three issues at one time

One reason why both Shell and BP shares have gone down in recent months is that investors lowered their outlook for oil prices over that period.

In the early days of the Middle Eastern conflict, prices were high. They have since cooled, which is bad news for oil producers’ profitability.

However, the Middle Eastern situation remains unstable. It could be that the oil price jumps again if the conflict is perceived to be escalating, not de-escalating.

A second factor that has weighed on the BP share price in recent months was the abrupt departure in May of its chair. That raised questions about how well the company has been run and also whether board disputes might distract from running the business.

On top of that is a longer-term question about strategy. BP had positioned itself a few years ago very strongly in favour of non-fossil fuels. It has since weakened that strategic choice.

The conflict in the Middle East and its effect on oil prices has nonetheless highlighted once more the different impact buoyant oil prices can have on US oil majors versus British rivals that continue to juggle fossil fuels and renewables.

The basics have not changed

If the oil price gets high enough again, I reckon the BP share price could get back to £6.

Boardroom struggles are a short-term distraction but longer term, I do not think they pose a meaningful risk to the company’s financial performance.

BP remains a sizeable energy producer that has deep experience, economies of scale, and a well-known brand for downstream sales to consumers.

The big unknown remains what is going to happen to the oil price and also gas prices. Those are outside the control of any one producer, including BP.

Its current share price does not look cheap to me. Even after the recent fall, the share is still 26% higher than a year ago. Over five years, it is up by 71%.

The 5% dividend yield does look attractive. But we have seen BP cut its dividend before now and, if oil prices crash, there is the risk of a double whammy both on the share price front and when it comes to the dividend.

For now, I have no plans to buy.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Bp P.l.c. made the list?

Christopher Ruane does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.

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Could the shares be worth a look after this pullback? Potentially – here are two reasons why.

A dividend yield above 5%

Let me start by saying that investing in oil stocks can be tricky. With these, it’s very hard to make forecasts for revenues and earnings because oil prices fluctuate significantly.

After BP’s recent 20% drop however, I can definitely see some appeal in the shares. For the start, there’s the dividend yield. This is now back over 5%. That’s above the FTSE 100 average and higher than the interest rates that most high-interest savings accounts in the UK are paying.

So the shares could be a decent source of passive income. Especially if held inside a Stocks and Shares ISA where there’s no tax on income from investments.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice. Readers are responsible for carrying out their own due diligence and for obtaining professional advice before making any investment decisions.

A hedge against uncertainty

Secondly, there’s the fact that they can act as a hedge against geopolitical flare-ups. If we were to see the situation in the Middle East escalate, oil prices might rise. This could lead to gains for the BP share price while other stocks fall due to uncertainty. So they could play a valuable defensive role in a portfolio, even though energy hasn’t traditionally been a defensive sector.

It’s worth pointing out that the shares could also be a good hedge against a tech sector meltdown. Because they have a low correlation with a lot of technology shares, meaning that they don’t move in sync with them.

Looking at the correlation between Nvidia and BP, for example, it’s close to zero over the last year. This tells us that the share price movements of Nvidia and BP have been independent of each other.

The bear case

Now, of course, there are plenty of risks here. As I mentioned above, oil company revenues and earnings are notoriously unpredictable. So while the shares look cheap today, there’s the possibility of further weakness. If oil prices head lower from here, the BP share price may follow.

There’s also uncertainty around the global shift to clean energy. Here, BP’s actively backing away from its move towards renewables.

Finally, there’s a bit of uncertainty in relation to the leadership team. This has seen a high level of turnover, with Meg O’Neill joining as CEO in April and chair Albert Manifold dismissed in May.

Even better opportunities?

Overall though, I see appeal in the shares at current levels. With a 5% dividend yield and some potential defensive attributes, there’s certainly a case for their consideration.

That said, there are a lot of other interesting opportunities in the market right now, both from a growth and an income investing perspective. So BP isn’t the only stock to consider buying.

What income stock do we like better than Bp P.l.c. right now?

One of our Share Advisor analysts has just released a brand new stock report that we think is a must-read for any investor looking to try and generate potential income.

And the best bit is that you can see if for yourself, right now, absolutely free of charge!

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Edward Sheldon owns shares in Nvidia

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The question is, where will BP’s share price head over the longer term? Given the fluid state of US-Iran relations, it’s fair to expect further volatility. Yet as an investor rather than a short-term trader, I’m looking for clues as to where the FTSE 100 share could be headed further out, say a year from now.

So I’m checking the views of analysts as a first port of call. Their consensus view is BP shares will rise 27% in value over the next 12 months, to 622.3p. That’s based on the average price target of 19 City brokers.

If that’s accurate, a £9,999 investment here today will be worth £12,699 by next July. With dividends included, that would become £13,397, representing a terrific 34% total return.

But what could push BP’s share price to those lofty levels?

Oil’s bubbling again

The most obvious answer is a prolonged conflict in the Middle East. Oil stocks have surged today after the US and Iran traded fresh missile attacks, driving crude values higher. Failure to secure a long-term ceasefire could create prolonged supply issues — roughly 25% of the world’s oil travels through the Strait of Hormuz.

The smart money appears to be on an intermittent conflict with recurring flare-ups lasting months. In other words, more of the same. But how long this lasts, and the impact it has on oil supplies is tough to predict.

It’s why oil price forecasts are unusually wide at the moment. Goldman Sachs thinks Brent crude will be at $80 a barrel by the end of 2026. Citi analysts are forecasting 60 bucks a barrel. And there are plenty of others in between.

What else could move BP shares?

Though clearly important, the US-Iran war isn’t the only thing that could cause BP’s share price to rise and fall. As investors, we need to look at the whole picture when deciding which stocks to buy.

So what else could influence the oil giant’s share price? These include:

The bull case

• The Ukraine-Russia conflict continuing, worsening the oil supply crunch.
• Fresh asset sales that prompt more share buybacks.
• Accelerating cost reductions as management simplifies the business.
• Expansion in the lucrative LNG market.
• Booming AI data centre construction that boosts energy demand.

The bear case

• Falling oil demand due to higher inflation and weaker economic growth.
• Surging crude production and investment from OPEC+ and/or non-OPEC+ countries.
• Growth in the company’s $25.3bn net debt pile.
• Potential windfall taxes on UK oil companies under a new prime minister.
• Energy efficiency and renewable energy trends that reduce oil usage.

Is BP a buy?

So based on this information, should investors consider buying BP shares today?

Let me tell you where I stand. For me, there is far more uncertainty facing the business in the short-to-medium term than I’m comfortable with. And looking longer term, I’m concerned about how badly the global transition to clean energy will hit profits. Especially given BP’s decision to scale back its own renewable energy operations over the last year.

On the other hand, BP shares are cheap on paper. At 490p, they command a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.3 times. Yet I’m unmoved, as — in my opinion — this low valuation reflects the huge risks it faces in 2026 and beyond. Given the choice, I’d rather invest a £9,999 lump sum in other low-cost stocks today.

What income stock do we like better than Bp P.l.c. right now?

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Royston Wild does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.

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According to reports, he reiterated his Buy rating on the stock earlier this month (1 July 2026) with a price target of 700p. That would equate to a spectacular 47% gain from today’s level around 475p.

It’s an optimistic outlook, and one I certainly hope comes true — but is it realistic?

Let’s take a look.

A bullish thesis

RBC’s thesis rests on a model of $91 per barrel for Brent Crude in 2026, supporting BP’s cash generation and earnings.

If that happens, BP could bring its net debt-to-cash flow from operations (CFFO) down from 2.2 times to 0.5 times by 2027. That would put it in a better financial position than peers like Exxon and TotalEnergies.

Even at just $70 a barrel, its leverage could drop to just 1.3 times — still in a comfortable range to support a higher valuation.

It already looks cheap compared to competitors, so any debt reduction would ramp up its attraction to investors. So long as cash flow continues to support dividends, it should maintain both value and income appeal.

Currently, its yield hovers around 5.3%, putting it well ahead of key rival Shell and in the top 15 yielders on the FTSE 100.

What’s the catch?

While BP’s current low price point looks attractive, a recovery is in no way guaranteed. In its analysis, RBC outlined four key risks that could turn that 700p target into a pipe dream:

• A shorter period of elevated oil prices than expected.
• Problems with the Castrol sale to Stonepeak (originally expected to net $6bn).
• Disappointing results from the Bumerangue exploration well in Brazil.
• Management resuming buybacks too early before completing deleveraging.

Essentially, any sustained drop in oil prices would derail the plan. And even if they do climb, BP won’t necessarily slash its debt aggressively.

Fortunately, the shares are still attractive for dividend payments alone. Even if the price doesn’t move at all, any shares held for the next 12 months should deliver a 5% return.

That alone makes the stock worth considering in my book.

So where does this leave us?

I like BP’s prospects but it’s no longer a reliable, steady income play. Any recovery relies on oil prices climbing, management executing on debt reduction, and key deals closing without hiccups.

Within an adequately diversified portfolio, I view it as an income-booster with energy exposure — rather than a foundational holding.

The 5% yield offers decent enough returns while waiting for a recovery, but don’t bank on 700p unless you’re comfortable with the risks. Considering the macro backdrop, a cautious approach seems smart.

The key is to keep a close eye on oil prices and any internal friction at BP that could derail this forecast. For now, I’ll hold my position and see how things pan out — but I feel optimistic about the stock.

What income stock do we like better than Bp P.l.c. right now?

One of our Share Advisor analysts has just released a brand new stock report that we think is a must-read for any investor looking to try and generate potential income.

And the best bit is that you can see if for yourself, right now, absolutely free of charge!

No jargon. No hard sell. Just a clear look at an income share we think is worth your time.

Mark Hartley owns shares in BP.

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While investor concern is understandable, I’m not too worried about the noise at the moment. Here’s why.

The bigger picture still looks good

The FTSE 100 has managed to climb 7.4% year-to-date as I write on 7 July, and at one point was very much in stock market correction territory after a 10% pullback.

That was enough to set nerves jangling as investors positioned for an increasingly uncertain situation. However, taking a slight step back paints a very different picture. Here’s how the index has performed over different time horizons:

• 1 month: +3.1%
• 6 months: +6.4%
• Year-to-date: +7.4%
• 1 year: +21.4%
• 5 years: +50.1%

So, over the past 12 months, the index is still up 21.4%. That is an extraordinary return by any historical measure, and it is a reminder that short-term wobbles tend to look muted over a long enough time horizon.

That doesn’t mean risks aren’t real. Uncertainty over fuel supplies, the knock-on effects for the economy, and the broader geopolitical picture are all worth watching closely.

But uncertainty is just part and parcel of investing in stocks. Weighing up risk versus reward is the key, and long-term success requires both skill and patience.

Corrections can be a patient investor’s friend

There’s another way to look at a short-term pullback. For investors with a long-term horizon, a dip in price means the same companies can be bought for less than they cost a month ago. 

I think back to the old adage of time in the market is better than timing the market. Identifying strong businesses and holding them through the noise has been a historically successful strategy.

Not all stocks are telling the same story

One of the things I find most reassuring is how well different parts of the Footsie are performing.

The index’s strength comes from its diversity — it spans energy, financials, consumer staples, mining, pharmaceuticals, and more.

BP (LSE: BP) is a case in point. As I write in the morning of 7 July, the company’s share price is 475.2p, up 13.6% in the past month and 27.8% higher than it was 12 months ago.

The company’s share price is down 13% in the past month as crude oil prices have dropped. It’s a stock I’m actively considering buying because I think there is plenty of more uncertainty to come and it could be a good buying opportunity.

Right now, we’re operating in an environment of significant complexity, geopolitical tension, supply disruption, rapid technological change and shifting global energy demand. Energy has rarely been more central to the world’s concerns.

Meg O’Neill, Chief Executive, BP – First Quarter 2026 Results Presentation

The 5.2% dividend yield has been recovering strongly as improved cash generation has allowed the company to rebuild its payout so I’m considering it.

That said, BP is not without risk. A sharp reversal in oil prices or a deeper global slowdown would put pressure on the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio which has expanded considerably alongside the share price recovery. 

In addition to BP, there are other top income stocks that I think yield hungry investors should be considering at the moment.

What income stock do we like better than Bp P.l.c. right now?

One of our Share Advisor analysts has just released a brand new stock report that we think is a must-read for any investor looking to try and generate potential income.

And the best bit is that you can see if for yourself, right now, absolutely free of charge!

No jargon. No hard sell. Just a clear look at an income share we think is worth your time.

Ken Hall does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.

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The Kushner-Witkoff talks in Qatar have reopened the Strait of Hormuz, put Iranian barrels back on the water, and knocked 20% off BP’s share price. So is it time to take a look?

Is the oil chart telling us to be bullish?

Some analysts now see Brent heading for $55. But Jeff Currie — who made his name calling commodity supercycles at Goldman Sachs and is now at The Carlyle Group — takes the opposite view. 

Currie argues we’re in the early stages of a supercycle that could run another decade. The main cause is chronic underinvestment in production colliding with the buildout of power-intensive AI infrastructure. 

He calls energy “the biggest asymmetric trade in modern finance”, noting oil majors generate free cash flow yields around 15.5% while the hyperscalers spending hundreds of billions generate none. And he has a point.

The data centre angle matters more than most realise. AI infrastructure’s brutally power-intensive — it needs gas, grid capacity, and cooling, all areas where integrated majors like BP are already embedded. 

In Currie’s words, the electrification story is “far stronger than we ever dreamed of in 2020”. If he’s right, the direction for oil prices over time might be higher, not lower.

A FTSE 100 oil stock

BP (LSE:BP) has had an unimpressive record in recent years. But Meg O’Neill took over as CEO on 1 April, arriving from Woodside Energy, which she built into Australia’s largest listed energy company.

Her playbook there — ruthless focus on core upstream competences, LNG strength, and capital discipline — is exactly what BP needs after years of strategic wandering. Despite this, the stock’s some way off its highs.

The price-to-book (P/B) ratio of roughly 1.8 is slightly above the 10-year average of 1.4. So the stock isn’t exactly in deep value territory. 

Source: Fiscal.ai

It is however, a far less demanding multiple than April’s 2.3. And the trailing 5.4% dividend yield makes it one of the highest in the FTSE 100.

In short, the company has a potential opportunity ahead, the right long-term strategy, and a valuation that looks reasonable, if not depressed. I think that means it’s worth a look.

What could go wrong?

Iranian supply could yet push crude oil prices lower and that makes a real difference for BP. The firm reckons a $1 shift in Brent prices translates into a $340m movement in pre-tax operating profits.

Windfall taxes are another potential issue. Westminster might be in transition, but that uncertainty shouldn’t be confused with a sign that trading conditions are about to get easier.

Nonetheless, BP has a credible CEO, structural demand from data centres, and Currie’s supercycle thesis in the background. As a result, I think BP shares look attractive to consider today with Brent at $71 than they did at $124. 

For long-term investors, the time to think about buying stocks is when others lose interest. At least with oil companies, there are very obvious signs when this happens.

Should you invest £5,000 in Bp P.l.c. right now?

When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.

And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Bp P.l.c. made the list?

Stephen Wright does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned.

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But with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 30, the stock doesn’t look dirt cheap on simple metrics. So I’m asking myself, is this just about oil, or are deeper company issues weighing on sentiment?

Boardroom upheaval

Internally, BP has had a somewhat troublesome time lately. In May, the board abruptly removed chairman Albert Manifold, citing “serious concerns” related to governance standards, oversight and conduct. He was only in the role for eight months.

Media reports covering the story mentioned complaints about an aggressive, “overbearing” management style – not the kind of headline a FTSE 100 oil major wants.

And that’s not all. The development follows years of rapid CEO turnover. Bernard Looney was pushed out in 2023 over misconduct disclosures and his successor, Murray Auchincloss, left in 2025 amid questions about BP’s performance and strategic direction.

Understandly, this has left investors trying to work out who is really steering the ship.

The new CEO, Meg O’Neill, who took over in April, has been trying to reset the narrative. In a memo to staff she described BP as operating in a world of “considerable complexity” and talked about providing energy “safely, dependably, and efficiently” while simplifying and strengthening the organisation.

She’s also reportedly pivoting back to core oil and gas after BP’s more ambitious renewables push disappointed some shareholders.

So amid all this governance chaos, the question is: can the new leadership rebuild trust and, if so, does the current low price offer a value opportunity?

How the numbers look

Despite a tumultuous period, BP’s latest results weren’t all bad. Profit dropped slightly to $7.5bn but cash flow remained strong at $24.5bn. Debt of $22.2bn is still high, but management targets a much lower range of $14bn – $18bn by 2027. It hopes to finance that debt through asset sales and suspended share buybacks.

Naturally, dividend income remains the key attraction. BP paid a total dividend of $0.25 per share in 2025, equivalent to a yield of about 5.7%.

Here’s a simple snapshot:

In short, strong cash flow continues to support dividends, but you can see why the market isn’t exactly scrambling to buy the shares right now.

My verdict?

On the macro side, the recent decision by the US to waive sanctions on Iranian oil exports for 60 days has nudged oil prices lower. More importantly, it has raised questions about future supply.

Iran holds the third‑largest proven oil reserves globally, estimated at around 209bn barrels. A sustained return of its barrels could pressure prices and major producers like BP.

If the price of Brent Crude drifts back towards $50 a barrel, history suggests the shares could drop below 300p. On the other hand, the Iran situation is volatile, and sanctions could snap back if negotiations collapse again.

Personally, I’m comfortable holding my existing BP stake for the time being. But given the governance noise and oil‑price risk, I’m cautious about adding more at today’s price until the outlook feels clearer.

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Mark Hartley owns shares in BP.

The post The BP share price slips below 460p as oil stabilises. Is now a good time to buy? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.