Tesla‘s a stock that has made early backers an absolute fortune. Since going public in 2010, the EV pioneer’s share price has risen by over 20,000%.
Put another way, every $1,000 invested back then has mushroomed into more than $200,000!
Today though, Tesla sports a hefty $1trn market cap, making it impossible that such gains will be replicated.
To aim for life-changing returns then, investors will have to get the microscope out and look at much smaller companies. After all, Tesla was valued at ‘only’ $1.7bn when it went public.
Could Joby Aviation (NYSE:JOBY), with a $7.4bn market cap, be a candidate to produce Tesla-esque returns?
A compelling customer proposition
Looking at the share price, it seems unlikely at the moment. Joby is down 57% in 12 months.
However, the company is inching closer towards commercial operations. Through its electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) aircraft, or electric flying taxis, Joby aims to offer consumers a quicker way to zip to and from airports, cutting travel times dramatically.
And because they’re up to 100 times quieter than helicopters, with zero emissions during flight, eVTOLs can be used in urban environments.
Yesterday (22 July), the firm signed a multi-year agreement with Virgin Atlantic to bring its eVTOLs to the UK. Heathrow and Manchester Airports will be the primary connection points, with plans to extend air taxi services across the UK over time.
Virgin Atlantic will offer customers booking options through its app. Early routes will include Manchester Airport to Leeds in approximately 15 minutes, and Heathrow to Central London in as little as eight minutes. The aim is for Uber Black prices.
Given the chance to skip traffic and save loads of time, I don’t think customer demand will be an issue.
When will operations begin?
Joby is targeting Dubai as its first commercial launch market, later in 2026. It has exclusive rights to operate there for six years, and has also completed demonstration flights in Japan.
Across the pond, where its partner is Delta Air Lines, the company is still working towards FAA approval. In May, it was on to the last stage of the certification process.
The next Tesla?
Is the stock worth a look at $7? I think so, assuming investors understand that this is a high-risk, high-reward stock.
There could be regulatory setbacks and, like Tesla in the early days, profits aren’t expected for ages. Only $114m in revenue is forecast this year (nearly all from its BLADE helicopter passenger business acquired in 2025).
However, the potential is exciting. Like Tesla, Joby is a vertically integrated company pioneering a new mode of electric transportation. It has a key manufacturing partnership with Toyota, which will help scale up fleet production.
Reassuringly, the firm ended Q1 with $2.5bn in cash, which will be enough to get commercial operations off the ground.
I hold Joby in my portfolio, but it’s only a small position today because I sold most of it last summer near $20 per share. But with the stock now down 57%, I think it’s worth considering at $7 as a speculative holding.
It might not produce Tesla-type returns, but if Joby successfully brings air taxis to the masses, early investors could still be looking at a potentially huge opportunity.
Should you invest £5,000 in Joby Aviation right now?
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Ben McPoland owns shares in Joby Aviation and Uber.
