Lloyds’ (LSE: LLOY) shares have had a big year. The price is around 111p today, up roughly 41.5% since July last year.
For a steady UK retail bank that’s a striking gain, and it naturally makes me wonder what comes next. Could Lloyds repeat that performance over the coming 12 months, or has it already done the heavy lifting?
To answer that, I like to start with the analysts and the latest results.
What analysts are expecting
At the moment, Lloyds carries an overwhelming Buy rating from 19 analysts, with 12 saying Buy, only six saying Hold and just one Sell. Their average 12‑month price target is 117.9p, with the highest forecast at 135p and the lowest at 53p.
Put simply, most professionals expect some upside, but they disagree on how much. If you invested £5,000 today and the shares reached 135p, that pot would be worth a little over £6,163, with dividends included.
That’s the optimistic end of the range, so I treat it as a stretch outcome rather than the base case.
Broker calls and key risks
Recent broker moves give more insight. Citi has turned increasingly positive, upgrading Lloyds to Buy and lifting its price target to 123p. UBS, Goldman Sachs and Citi all reiterated Buy ratings in late April, with targets of 115p, 129p and 123p.
The highest rating I could find is by Morgan Stanley, with a price target of 135p. Shore Capital, by contrast, has moved to Sell with a target around 91p after the strong share price rally, while JP Morgan has kept a Neutral view.
| Broker | Price target (p) | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Citi | 123 | Buy |
| Morgan Stanley | 135 | Buy |
| UBS | 115 | Buy |
| Goldman Sachs | 129 | Buy |
| Shore Capital | 91 | Sell |
| JPMorgan | 121 | Neutral |
The fundamentals help explain why the majority still sit on the bullish side. In 2025, Lloyds reported pre‑tax profit of £6.7bn, up 12% year on year, and announced plans to return up to £3.9bn to shareholders through dividends and buybacks.
CEO Charlie Nunn has talked about “sustained strength in financial performance” and said the group remains “confident in the outlook for Lloyds Banking Group.”
At today’s price, the shares offer a dividend yield of about 3.26%, plus ongoing buybacks that should support earnings per share.
The key risks are the near-£2bn provision related to mis‑sold motor finance, the chance that lower interest rates squeeze margins, and a softer UK economy that could push impairments higher.
Final thoughts
For me, the upbeat scenario over the next 12 months is clear. If Lloyds reaches that 135p goal, a £5,000 investment could deliver close to a 24% gain with dividends included.
On the more cautious average target of 117.9p, that same stake might only grow to about £5,250. But add about £163 in income at the current yield, and you’re looking at a decent total return of £413 — around 8.26%.
Still not bad, particularly a large UK bank with a moderate yield and stable growth. Provided you’re comfortable with the usual economic and regulatory bumps, it remains one of the best bank stocks to consider, in my opinion.
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Mark Hartley owns shares in Lloyds Banking Group.
