In the last 12 months, the Vodafone (LSE:VOD) share price has climbed 35%, comfortably beating the FTSE 100‘s already impressive 17.2% gain over the same period.
It’s a remarkable turnaround for a stock that spent years grinding lower, but it raises an obvious question. How much higher could it go from here? And how much money could an investor realistically make with £5,000 today?Let’s investigate.
What the forecasts are saying
The honest answer is that the analyst community is more divided on Vodafone shares than most. At one end of the spectrum, the most optimistic projections have price targets as high as 150p, which on a £5,000 investment would return around £6,778 by July 2027.
At the other end, other analysts still see the shares drifting as low as 85p, which would turn that same £5,000 into just £3,840.
Looking at the average consensus, Vodafone shares are predicted to land close to 111p, which is essentially where the telecoms stock is trading today. So which forecast should investors be listening to?
Digging deeper
Seeing a split opinion on this business isn’t too surprising. Vodafone’s in the middle of a restructuring attempt. And right now its simply too soon to tell if current efforts will be successful.
That’s why the range of price targets is so wide. Some analysts are predicting success while others expect Vodafone to fail. And to be fair to the bears, this isn’t the first time new management’s tried fixing Vodafone’s problems.
However, it’s worth pointing out that some early positive operational momentum is starting to materialise. Vodafone’s 2026 fiscal year results (ended in March) were genuinely encouraging.
Total revenue grew 8% to €40.5bn, operating profit swung from a €400m loss to a €2.8bn gain, and adjusted free cash flow hit €2.6bn, coming in at the top end of guidance.
But what’s most exciting of all is what’s coming next. In its 2027 fiscal year, which kicked off a few months ago, management anticipates free cash flow to potentially expand to as high as €2.9bn courtesy of emerging synergies with its Three UK merger.
And with its Africa segment also delivering more double-digit organic growth, this latest turnaround attempt already appears to be far more successful than previous efforts.
So should investors consider being aggressive?
What could still go wrong?
Despite the improving trajectory, there are a couple of things worth watching closely. Net debt’s still a persistent problem and now stands at €25.4bn following the Three UK consolidation. At the same time, Vodafone’s largest core market, Germany, remains pretty soft.
Organic revenues have recently returned to growth but only by a tiny margin. And if performance doesn’t pick up, Vodafone’s recovery could prove to be a slow process that ultimately causes the business to lag its rivals.
The bottom line
Vodafone’s a simpler, stronger business than it was three years ago, and the free cash flow trajectory over the next few years looks genuinely compelling.
The lack of meaningful progress in Germany is why I’m personally not ready to jump in and buy shares today. But if the business continues to deliver, I may have to reconsider. That’s why I think investors should already start investigating this business for a potential future investment.
Should you invest £5,000 in Vodafone Group Public right now?
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Zaven Boyrazian does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
