BT Group (LSE: BT.A) shares reached a five-year high of 242p in May, having just about trebled since their lows of mid-2024. But they’ve fallen back approximately 19% since then. So is it time to consider selling and taking profit? Maybe not.
It does look like some investors have been doing exactly that. But if analysts at Berenberg are worth listening to, following the crowd might be a bad move right now.
Expert upgrade
Berenberg recently raised its price target on BT from 250p to 300p following May’s full-year results. And in a note published on 14 July, the private bank reaffirmed that target on the back of improving consumer trends and growing confidence.
A share price target of 300p would mean a terrific 53% surge from the price at the time of writing. And that would be enough to turn £5,000 invested in BT shares today into as much as £7,650 over the next 12 months. And this is at a time when forecasts also suggest a 4.2% dividend yield to add a bit of icing to the cake.
So why isn’t everyone rushing to hit their Buy buttons and driving the BT share price back up? Well, there’s actually a range of price targets out there, and not everyone has such a rosy outlook.
Bearish stance
Looking at consensus estimates, I see a lowball target of just 143p from someone. And that could be a worry if it proves accurate. But I can’t find it as a specific note, and I can’t uncover the broker behind it.
The lowest identifiable price I can find issued in 2026, and still current, is from UBS in May. That’s a Sell recommendation, with the price predicted to drop to 175p. It’s still not good. But it does seem like a bit of an outlier, as most analysts have been raising their targets during the course of 2026.
What’s the beef?
None of this means much if BT isn’t pulling off the transformation it needs. And on that score, FY results looked impressive.
OpenReach full fibre broadband and 5G+ network growth again reached targets ahead of schedule, and the company once again posted optimistic financial guidelines.
Today we’re announcing an increased full year dividend of 8.32 pence per share and an updated dividend policy, and we are reiterating our guidance of sustained growth, including cash flow inflection to c. £2bn in FY27 and to c. £3bn by the end of the decade.
CEO Allison Kirkby, 21 May 2026
But there’s one problem. Revenue isn’t growing and fell 3% in 2025-26.
Buy, or not?
I’m always drawn back to BT’s huge debt pile — hovering around £20bn for years now, with little sign of coming down. And it does seem to hit the share price. I’d like to see BT working on the liquidity it needs for growth in 10 years’ (and 20 years’) time. So I won’t buy.
But I’ve always thought income investors happy to just keep taking the dividends might do well to consider BT shares. They have to be worth thinking about…
Should you invest £5,000 in Bt Group Plc right now?
When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.
And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Bt Group Plc made the list?
Alan Oscroft does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
