The past few weeks have felt like a boardroom drama for easyJet shares. The airline finally accepted a fourth takeover bid from US fund Castlelake, only to have Apollo Global Management swoop in with a higher offer.
Apollo’s new bid values the airline at about 715p per share, well above Castlelake’s 690p. Naturally, that “delivers a superior outcome” for shareholders, as the board stated.
The sudden jump clearly means easyJet is more valuable than the market thought. So what does this mean for investors watching from the sidelines?
Deal mechanics, customers, and confidence signals
The deal isn’t done yet. It still needs shareholder approval and regulatory clearances, and there’s a strict timetable: Apollo has until 7 August 2026 to announce a firm offer or walk away. Analysts warn there could be more twists, even a bidding war, before any closing.
For customers, the big question is ownership change. Some worry private-equity owners cut costs hard or sell assets. Others point out easyJet’s core model – low fares, point-to-point routes, ancillary revenue – should stay intact in the near term.
There’s also a confidence signal: insiders have been buying shares recently, and the board is “minded to recommend” Apollo’s terms.
But with a possible delisting if the deal completes, is now the time to buy, or wait?
Should investors consider easyJet now?
If the shares keep trading, the risk/reward hinges on the offer outcome. If Apollo (or Castlelake) closes, shares could be delisted. Moreover, if the deal fails, they might fall back toward pre-bid levels. Those are the core risks to think about.
If the shares continue trading, the outcome looks promising. Fundamentally, the airline has been leaning on its holidays business and ancillaries to lift margins, while competing hard with Ryanair and Jet2 on cost and capacity.
The latest full-year results (FY25, year to 30 September 2025) show continued profit growth:
- Profit before tax (PBT): up 9% to £665m
- Earnings before interest and tax (EBIT): up 18% to £703m
- Group revenues: up 9% to £10.1bn
The airline segment alone delivered £415m PBT, with the holidays business contributing much of the rest.
However, 2026 first-quarter results didn’t impress quite as much. It reported a £93m loss before tax (vs £61m a year earlier) following heavy investment in routes and capacity. If that expenditure doesn’t pay off, the next results could wipe up recent gains.
Still, passengers rose 7% to 22.7m, load factor improved to 90%, and available seat kilometres (ASK) grew 9%.
For interested retail investors, the key is patience and keeping a close eye on the August deadline to see if any revised bids pop up, and monitor whether the board’s recommendation holds.
My take, and a possible alternative
As an easyJet shareholder myself, I’m holding my shares for now and keeping a close eye on the story. But when looking at the situation with a long-term view, I think it makes little sense for me to topp up my position now until the future is more clear.
Based on what’s happened in just the past few weeks, I doubt even the most eagle-eyed analyst could predict what comes next.
With that in mind, investors keen on UK air travel exposure might feel more comfortable considering a more stable, established company like IAG, owner of British Airways.
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Mark Hartley owns shares in easyJet.
