Remember the sharp jump in the stock price of Space Exploration Technologies (NASDAQ: SPCX), better known as SpaceX, that followed its stock market listing barely a month ago?
Some investors may have thought they missed out by not getting in back then. But the picture of what has happened to SpaceX stock over the past month isn’t a pretty one…
This share’s crashed
In just one month, the SpaceX share price has tumbled a painful 32%.
That means that somebody who put £5,000 into the company one month ago would now be nursing a paper loss of £1,600. Ouch!
There is no dividend currently paid by the lossmaking company. Given its finances and focus on growth I do not expect that to change anytime soon.
What does a steep fall mean for an investor?
Not only that, but the 32% figure relates to the dollar value. I have ignored exchange rate moves in the calculation above. In practice, that is an additional risk for a UK investor to consider when buying American or indeed any shares listed in a foreign currency. That said, sometimes exchange rate movements can work to our advantage, not disadvantage.
A 32% share price fall in just one month is troubling for an investor in any company. It may seem especially surprising for one that has been touted for its growth prospects.
Remember though, until an investor sells, that is only a paper loss. In other words, until you sell a share you own, the loss (or gain) you make on it is not crystallised.
I expect many investors will be hanging onto SpaceX stock in the hope that its price will recover – and hopefully grow. As a long-term investor, I identify with that mentality. In fact, I do not think the underlying investment case for the rocket company has changed over the past month.
It has significant client contracts, strong revenue growth prospects, deep sectoral expertise and lots of proprietary technology.
Here’s the problem I see with SpaceX
So why has SpaceX stock crashed? The investment case is only one of the things smart investor consider when weighing up whether to put some of their hard-earned money into a share. Valuation also matters.
When SpaceX listed, I thought its price was very overvalued. It seems the market has reached the same conclusion: the stock now sells for 19% below its listing price.
Even at that price though, the company commands a market capitalisation of $1.7trn. That is around 89 times sales (remember, the company’s earnings are negative, so it has no meaningful price-to-earnings ratio). I still see that as a ludicrous valuation.
SpaceX faces a range of risks, from ongoing cash burn eating into its liquidity to an unproven business model for its AI business. There are also threats to its technological lead. China and Japan recently recaptured rockets they had launched, demonstrating a capability that had previously set SpaceX apart from other space explorers.
Despite the price crash, I will not be buying any SpaceX stock for my portfolio.
Should you invest £5,000 in Space Exploration Technologies Corp. - Class A right now?
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Christopher Ruane does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
