Barclays‘ (LSE:BARC) shares have been one of the FTSE 100‘s standout performers over the last 12 months.
The bank’s share price has climbed 52.8% in a year, turning a £5,000 investment into around £7,640. But with the stock now trading around 511p, the question every investor’s asking is: how much higher can it realistically go?
Here’s what the experts think…
What the analysts are forecasting
Right now, 19 analysts are covering Barclays, and the mood’s firmly bullish. Sixteen rate the stock a Buy, three a Hold, and not a single analyst is recommending Sell. Yet overall, the average consensus suggests the share price may only climb to around 575p from here – roughly 12.5% higher than where the stock’s trading today.
To be fair, an 12.5% gain’s nothing to scoff at. And when digging into some of the individual forecasts, there does appear to be a wide range of price targets, including the most optimistic projection of 630p, or 23.3% higher than current levels. And if this bullish forecast proves to be correct, that means a £5,000 investment today could be worth £6,165 by this time next year.
So what’s driving this forecast? And does it stack up?
Why the bulls could be right
The structural hedge story that powered Barclays’ earnings and share price momentum is still far from over. Fixed-rate swap contracts taken out at peak rates continue to roll into the portfolio, providing growing net interest income that has real visibility for the next two to three years.
In fact, in the first quarter of 2026 alone, gross hedge contributions reached £1.66bn, up from £1.34bn a year earlier. And with interest rates today staying higher for longer than initially anticipated, the eventual contraction in net interest margins has likely been delayed, allowing Barclays to continue raking in excess cash for longer.
Furthermore, the return on tangible equity now stands at 13.5%, but management has reiterated its target of 14% by 2028.
This signals that beyond leveraging interest rates, the firm’s also unlocking additional profitability gains through superior efficiency. And with aggressive ongoing share buybacks, the bank stock appears well positioned to continue climbing steadily.
What could go wrong?
While it’s hard to argue with Barclays’ latest performance, that doesn’t mean it’s a guaranteed winner. Barclays’ shares are no longer the deeply-discounted British bank from a few years ago. And with some notable growth expectations now baked into its share price, the business will have to continue hitting and exceeding targets to maintain its current trajectory.
Sadly, this could be far easier said than done. Beyond the expected cost from the FCA’s Redress scheme for the UK motor finance scandal, the higher-for-longer interest rate environment has also started negatively impacting the financials.
Default rates and credit impairment charges are both on the rise. And while these remain relatively negligible for now, there’s a real risk of that changing if the business and consumer landscape start to deteriorate under increased financial pressure.
The bottom line
Investing in Barclays’ shares today is no longer the no-brainer it might have been a few years ago. But overall, I think there’s still an interesting opportunity here. That’s why I think investors may want to consider taking a closer look.
Should you invest £5,000 in Barclays Plc right now?
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Zaven Boyrazian does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
