Few disasters in the history of the London Stock Exchange match the trajectory of the Ocado (LSE:OCDO) share price over the last five years.
The shares have collapsed more than 90% since July 2021, and anyone who put £1,000 to work back then now has less than £100 left today. And with the stock down a further 21% since the start of 2026, the question on every long-suffering shareholder’s lips is the same: is there any hope left?
How did it come to this?
The story of Ocado’s collapse has three chapters.
The first was runaway costs. Ocado built a genuinely world-class robotic grocery fulfilment technology, but the capital required to fund customer fulfilment centres (CFCs) across the globe was staggering. Losses piled up year after year with no clear path to profitability.
The second was client retreats. Partners such as Kroger and Sobeys, who had committed to ambitious CFC expansion plans, began pulling back due to the energy required to run Ocado’s technology eroding profit margins.
The third, and most recent, was a leadership storm.
Efforts to remove founder and CEO Tim Steiner intensified before being resolved earlier this month, with the board confirming he will continue as CEO through to the start of 2028 before transitioning to a founder advisory role.
Is there a genuine recovery story here?
While Ocado’s situation is dire, there are some genuine green shoots of recovery. Its latest full-year results showed group revenue rising 12.1% to £1.4bn, and adjusted EBITDA surging 59% to £178m, well ahead of analyst expectations.
At the same time, management’s targeting positive free cash flow in the second half of this financial year, and full-year cash positivity in its 2027 fiscal year (ending in November).
Meanwhile, earlier in May this year, the group unveiled a brand new partnership with Asda which is potentially transformative. Asda fulfils more than 700,000 online grocery orders every week across 1,100 stores. And deploying Ocado’s Smart Platform across that network from 2027 would significantly help to rebuild not just growth but confidence in the technology after its recent high-profile customer pullbacks.
That’s obviously encouraging. But sadly, the main risks haven’t gone away. The balance sheet still carries over £1bn in net debt, its Technology Solutions revenue’s still expected to decline in the near term, and its legacy online grocery-business-turned-M&S-JV remains loss-making with no clear timeline for reaching profitability.
So where does that leave investors today?
Can the Ocado share price recover?
Ocado’s a genuinely extraordinary technology business. The robotic CFC platform works, the Asda deal’s a meaningful vote of confidence, and cash flow’s finally moving in the right direction.
But the path from here to a sustainable, profitable enterprise still requires years of flawless execution. And with such a messy track record, investor confidence is understandably near non-existent.
That’s why I remain untempted by Ocado’s seemingly dirt cheap share price until I see more recovery progress. For now, I think there are far better opportunities to explore elsewhere, such as…
What income stock do we like better than Ocado Group Plc right now?
One of our Share Advisor analysts has just released a brand new stock report that we think is a must-read for any investor looking to try and generate potential income.
And the best bit is that you can see if for yourself, right now, absolutely free of charge!
No jargon. No hard sell. Just a clear look at an income share we think is worth your time.
Zaven Boyrazian does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
