HSBC (LSE: HSBA) shares have reappeared on my radar as a top income pick once again. The latest analysts’ forecasts project dividends rising quickly over the next three years.
These are backed by a powerful combination of the bank’s global reach, strong capital strength, and consistent profitability. And these could also lift the stock’s deeply-discounted price to its ‘fair value’ over time too, in my view.
So what sort of returns are possible?
What’s the dividend profile?
Analysts project HSBC’s dividend yield will increase to 5.6% by 2028, although such returns can vary over time.
So, another £20,000 investment by me now would make £14,968 in dividends over 10 years and £86,893 after 30 years.
The numbers factor in the use of dividend compounding, which can lead to exponential long-term growth in dividend returns.
At the end of 30 years, the holding’s total value (including the original £20,000 investment) would be £106,893.
And that would give a yearly income (from dividends alone) of £5,986!
What about price gains?
Price and value often diverge in the world of shares. Price is whatever the market happens to accept at a particular point, but value is rooted in the fundamentals of the company itself.
For long-term, savvy investors, that difference matters enormously. Markets have a habit of steering prices back towards fair value over the long run. This makes the distinction a key driver of long‑term returns.
The discounted cash flow (DCF) model determines what a stock is truly worth by projecting future cash flows for the underlying business. It then discounts these back to today to produce a per-share value.
The less certain those projections are, the greater the discount rate applied, so analysts’ DCF valuations can vary. Based on my own framework — including an 8.4% discount rate — HSBC looks 39% undervalued at its present price of £13.74.
That suggests a fair value of £22.52, nearly double the current level. If markets continue to correct this mispricing, this could be an outstanding potential buying opportunity if those DCF assumptions hold good.
What does the earnings growth look like?
Earnings growth is the engine that drives any stock’s price and dividends higher over the long run. A risk here for HSBC is a sharp fall in global interest rates that could reduce net interest income. Another is that any deterioration in China or broader Asian credit conditions could weaken loan performance.
Nevertheless, analysts forecast that HSBC’s earnings will increase by an annual average of 11.3% to end-2028 at minimum.
This looks well justified to me, given its 2025 results saw return on tangible equity (the key profit marker for banks) rise to 17.2% year on year. The bank expects 17%+ every year to end-2028.
My investment view
For income‑focused investors, that blend of strong earnings momentum, rising dividends, and a deeply undervalued share price is difficult to overlook.
HSBC’s scale, capital strength, and global reach give it the resilience to keep rewarding shareholders over the long term.
With profits still expanding and the valuation offering significant upside, the shares look an appealing option to consider for anyone aiming to build a durable second income stream.
And I for one will be adding to my existing holding very shortly.
Should you invest £5,000 in HSBC Holdings right now?
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And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if HSBC Holdings made the list?
Simon Watkins owns shares in HSBC.
