Barclays‘ (LSE:BARC) shares have had a remarkable 12 months. The UK banking giant has surged 41.2% since June 2025. And anyone who had initially bought 5,000 shares in June last year has since seen their investment grow from £16,297.50 to £23,000 today.
But with the share price now sitting around 453p, can it keep climbing from here?
What do the experts think?
According to 14 analysts currently covering the stock, the consensus is firmly bullish. Not a single one has a Sell rating – 12 have Buy or Outperform recommendations, with three on Hold.
The price target spread tells an interesting story:
| Scenario | 12-Month Price Target | Potential Return |
| Bull (high estimate) | 630p | +39.1% |
| Base (median target) | 550p | +21.4% |
| Bear (low estimate) | 455p | +0.4% |
At the median target of 550p, if someone bought 5,000 Barclays’ shares today for £22,650, they could end up with around £27,500 by this time next year. And when looking at the most optimistic outlook, that number jumps all the way to a whopping £31,500.
Of course, forecasts aren’t set in stone. So what needs to go right for the share price to climb to these levels? And what could go wrong?
The bull case is hard to argue with
Barclays’ operational picture is genuinely impressive. In the first quarter of 2026, the bank grew its total income 6% year on year to £8.2bn, delivered a return on tangible equity of 13.5%, and launched a fresh £500m share buyback.
Crucially, its investment banking income exceeded £4bn in a single quarter for the first time ever, demonstrating the enormous value of having a diversified revenue base beyond the UK high street.
Management’s also confident enough in the trajectory to commit to returning at least £15bn to shareholders between 2026 and 2028.
As CEO CS Venkatakrishnan put it: “The breadth and quality of our businesses mean we remain confident in delivering all our financial targets across a range of environments.”
What could derail the story?
Despite the bank’s impressive trajectory, Barclays still has several weak spots that could throw some spanners into the works.
Like other British banks, it has significant exposure to the UK economy, which generates just over half of its revenues. With inflation from the Middle East conflict threatening to squeeze household spending and push loan defaults higher, the bank’s UK division faces real near-term headwinds.
Throw in the fact that impairment charges are already creeping higher, any deterioration in UK economic conditions could erode the very earnings momentum that has propelled the share price this far.
What’s more, beyond the wider macroeconomic risk, Barclays is also exposed to considerable regulatory oversight. A £228m single-name fraud charge landed earlier this year. And it’s an uncomfortable reminder that operational and regulatory risk events can hit earnings quickly and unexpectedly.
Worth considering?
Despite the risks, Barclays remains one of the most intriguing major banks in the FTSE 100. It has a fortress balance sheet, a growing buyback programme, and a diversified revenue base, all of which make a compelling case for long-term investors.
That’s why, despite the risks, I think Barclays’ shares could be worth a closer look from investors seeking exposure to the UK banking sector. And it’s not the only financial enterprise on my radar today.
Should you invest £5,000 in Barclays Plc right now?
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Zaven Boyrazian does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
