Buy or sell? I am not talking about the market in general, but the Greggs (LSE: GRG) shares in my portfolio specifically.
On one hand, they still look cheap to me. On the other hand, they still look cheap to me!
Put another way, I thought they were a bargain when I bought them – but having moved up just 3% so far this year (slightly weaker than the 4% gain of the wider FTSE 250 index so far in 2026), they look to be going nowhere fast.
What should I do? Buy more? Hang on? Or sell?
Listening to the market
Personally, I reckon Greggs shares continue to look cheap.
After all, the company has a strong brand, compelling value proposition, and large base of loyal customers. It is profitable and growing sales year on year even when looking at the same shops. On top of that, it has been expanding the number of stores in its estate.
Despite all that, the share price action suggests that the stock market remains lukewarm.
As an investor, it can be helpful to listen to your own instinct when they conflict with what the market is signalling.
But it can also be helpful to listen to the market and seriously try to understand why it is doing what it is doing.
Greggs still needs to convince about the long-term growth story
I reckon the challenge here is growth.
Greggs has growth. As I said, total sales revenues are growing – and so are like-for-like sales revenues. Its shop estate is growing and I reckon a weak economy could mean its addressable market is growing too.
Yet, despite all that, the market’s pricing of Greggs shares suggests that it continues to doubt the growth story.
This is a risk, I realise. Perhaps with thousands of shops already, the baker has reached the point where its market is saturated and new shops eat into sales at existing ones.
That adds to risks like rising wage and energy bills eating into profitability given the huge number of shops to be staffed and powered.
Looking for a catalyst for the share price
Those are in addition to risks like poor demand planning. Greggs shares plummeted last year after a shock profits warning driven by misreading what consumers would want to buy in a hot summer. There is a risk of similar missteps in future.
That helps explain City nervousness.
What might it take to turn the Greggs share price around, given its decent business performance? In short, I think it may need a catalyst – something to make investors sit back and reassess it.
For now, I do not see an obvious one on the horizon. That could mean that Greggs shares continue to go nowhere fast.
But as a long-term investor, I continue to believe in the investment case. Sooner or later, I expect the market to reflect what I believe is the attractiveness of Greggs’ business model.
An unexpectedly strong trading update could provide a catalyst for a wider reassessment of the share’s valuation. But equally, disappointing news could mean the price moves down further.
For now, I continue to hold, but do not plan to buy any more Greggs shares.
Should you invest £5,000 in Greggs Plc right now?
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Christopher Ruane owns shares in Greggs.
