Five years ago (June 2021), it would have been possible to buy one of Greggs‘ (LSE:GRG) shares for £25.98. Today (6 June), they’re changing hands for around £17.
But that’s not the full story. The British baker has also paid some good dividends during this period. So how much would a £5,000 investment made five years ago be worth today? Let’s take a look.
What do the numbers show?
A share price decline of 35% is disappointing. But Greggs’ dividend will have compensated to some extent. During its last five financial years, it’s declared ordinary dividends of £3.16 a share and two specials dividends (in 2021 and 2023) of 40p each. This would have produced income of £760 on the 192 shares bought in June 2021.
Offset this against the £1,750 dip in the value of the £5,000 investment and someone would be sitting on a paper loss of £990 (19.8%).
So what’s going on? Well, it’s a mixed picture.
Delving deeper
Greggs has expanded rapidly over the past five years and, at the end of 2025, had 2,739 shops (eventually, it wants to get to 3,500) compared to 2,181 in December 2021.
Over this period, turnover’s risen 75% to £2.15bn. But the pace of growth is slowing. In 2025, the year-on-year like-for-like (LFL) sales increase was a disappointing 2.5%.
At the same time, the group’s faced increased costs. In 2025, its net margin was 3.8 percentage points lower than it was in 2021.
The bottom line is that, since the pandemic, the group’s reported adjusted earnings per share as follows:
- 2021 – 114.3p
- 2022 – 117.5p
- 2023 – 123.8p
- 2024 – 137.5p
- 2025 – 122.8p
And this has failed to impress the City. The group’s share price is now 51% lower than it was in December 2021, when it recorded its all-time high.
A similar picture emerged from its most recent trading update. During the first 19 weeks of 2026, total sales increased by 7.5%. This was helped, in part, by 20 (net) new stores. However, LFL sales were up by a less impressive 2.5%.
| Financial year | Total sales growth (%) | Like-for-like sales growth (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 51.6 | 52.4 |
| 2022 | 23.0 | 17.8 |
| 2023 | 19.6 | 13.7 |
| 2024 | 11.3 | 5.5 |
| 2025 | 6.8 | 2.4 |
My view
Personally, I think there’s lots to admire about Greggs. But I don’t want to invest. Until investors see evidence of a turnaround, I suspect the group’s share price is going to drift lower.
And it doesn’t matter how cheap the shares look on paper – they’re currently changing hands for around 13.5 times earnings compared to the five-year average (median) of 18.8 – I suspect sentiment towards the baker won’t change until the lack of earnings growth is successfully addressed.
The drop in market-cap has pushed the group’s yield higher but as tempting as a 4.1% return might be, there’s no point banking a healthy dividend if the share price continues to come under pressure.
With total reliance on the UK, there’s nowhere to hide should the domestic economy struggle to grow. Indeed, the group describes current market conditions as “challenging”.
Greggs is also having to contend with smaller appetites caused by weight-loss jabs, as well as a move towards healthier eating. That’s why it’s introducing a range of smaller calorie-dense products alongside lower fat options.
For me, there’s too much uncertainty surrounding the group. I believe there are better opportunities to consider elsewhere.
Should you invest £5,000 in Greggs Plc right now?
When investing expert Mark Rogers and his team have a stock tip, it can pay to listen. After all, the flagship Twelfth Magpie Share Advisor newsletter he has run for nearly a decade has provided thousands of paying members with top stock recommendations from the UK and US markets.
And right now, Mark thinks there are 6 standout stocks that investors should consider buying. Want to see if Greggs Plc made the list?
James Beard does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
