Over the last year, Greggs (LSE:GRG) shares have been rolling down a hill. With a 17.2% decline, they’ve certainly taken the appetite away from investors.
However, it’s been a different story over the last six months, with the company’s shares rising by a tasty 21.2%.
If someone put £3,000 into its shares six months ago, their investment would now be worth £3,637.
That £637 is a very good profit considering the size of the initial investment. But given that the share price is still down from a year ago, can the bakery chain’s shares offer us more over the long term?
Recent results show promise
Greggs released a trading update for the first 19 weeks of 2026 to 9 May. There was plenty to note from it:
- Total sales are up 7.5% year-on-year to £800m.
- Like-for-like (LFL) sales growth is 2.5%.
- LFL sales for the recent 10 weeks is 3.3%.
- 20 net openings of shops, with 2,759 now trading.
- Cost inflation expected to remain around 3%.
- Expected outlook for the year remains unchanged.
Now, there’s plenty to like about this report. There’s good sales growth, and the general outlook, including cost inflation, is expected to remain the same. This is a relief, considering there are inflationary fears resulting from the war in Iran.
In fact, it looks like these promising results eased investors’ fears. Most of the six-month return I mentioned above on the company’s shares occurred after these results were released. Prior to this, its shares were up only 5% from the start of the six months.
But don’t get too eaten up by the positives
While there were positive elements to Gregg’s trading update, there were also areas that should remind us not to get too excited.
Total sales were indeed up by a decent 7.5%, but LFL sales were only up 2.5%. Given that cost inflation is 3%, sales were actually down once we adjust for this.
Therefore, the company is still facing a growth problem with a battle to stop sales falling once adjusted for inflation.
The one good point to note in respect of this is that LFL sales were up 3.3% for the latest 10 weeks. But the company needs to beat inflation consistently to ease concerns.
Still a great passive income opportunity?
Even though the fundamentals of Greggs’ future are somewhat mixed, one thing I think is more certain is that it’s a great passive income choice.
Ignoring special dividends, since the bakery chain restored its first dividend after the pandemic, it has maintained or increased its payout per share.
What’s more appetising is that over the past five years, the firm’s shares have fallen by 30.7%. You might be wondering why this is positive. Well, income investors will be aware that they can now obtain higher dividends from the firm for a 30.7% cheaper price.
It’s important to bear in mind that dividends aren’t guaranteed. But provided the company can maintain its dividend, its 4% yield looks enticing.
And, I don’t think there’s much risk to its dividend. Its earnings per share were 122.8p for 2025, while its dividend was 69p, so there’s a big margin of safety.
Ultimately, I have mixed feelings about the business. That said, I still believe Greggs shares are worth considering for income investors.
Should you invest £5,000 in Greggs Plc right now?
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Muhammad Cheema does not hold any positions in the companies mentioned.
