Lloyds Banking Group (LSE: LLOY) shares looked like they were heading out of reach when they flew above 114p in early February.
But after a fall, the price is back around 95p now. That still means a 96% gain over the past five years. And many investors will have taken their profits and moved on.
So are Lloyds shares an attractive buy at today’s price? I think they might be. Let’s dive in and have a look.
Is it too risky now?
With the world in such a geopolitical mess, and inflation looking set to cause more pain, some might consider it reckless to buy bank shares right now.
And some things are clearly not good for Lloyds. They include…
- Consumer Price Inflation, including housing costs, up to 3.4% in March 2026.
- Mortgage approvals down from 100,000 per month in 2021, to 65,500 by March 2026.
- Estimated £1.95bn costs from motor finance mis-selling scandal.
The car loan thing might be all over bar the shouting. But it makes me wonder what calamity Lloyds might rush headlong into next. The banks seem to have a knack for getting things like this painfully wrong.
And is it a mistake to just think of Lloyds as a retail and mortgage business? As my Twelfth Magpie colleague Andrew Mackie noted, Lloyds is diversifying into areas including wealth management, commercial services, payments and other consumer services.
How’s 2026 going?
“Our differentiated business model remains resilient in the context of the current economic uncertainties.“
Lloyds CEO Charlie Nunn
Speaking about Q1 results — which saw statutory profit before tax of £2bn, up from £1.5bn a year previously — Charlie Nunn added: “We are confident in our delivery for the year ahead and reiterate our guidance for 2026.“
That suggests underlying net interest income for the year should be greater than £14.9bn. Return on tangible equity should be better than 16%, with a CET1 ratio of around 13%. Does that sound like a bank that’s struggling? Not to me it doesn’t.
What do the experts think?
Forecasts show earnings rising steadily over the next few years. That’s very much open to being derailed by economic malaise, we must remember. But it could mean a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.5 for the full year this time — dropping under seven by 2028.
I don’t see how anyone could judge such a valuation as too hot. I can only assume the threats to the financial sector mean a lot of investors are wary of trusting forecasts right now. And it’s wise to be cautious, for sure.
But the same forecasters have an average price target on Lloyds shares of 115p — 20% ahead of where we are today — though there’s quite a wide spread of individual prices. The consensus has Lloyds as a pretty strong Buy too.
With City analysts so bullish, do I think investors should consider buying Lloyds against such an uncertain economic backdrop? I do, yes.
Alan Oscroft owns shares of Lloyds Banking Group.
