BP (LSE: BP.) shares have long attracted income investors. With a dividend yield of around 5.5%, it’s easy to see why. The company expects annual dividends to rise by at least 4%, meaning a £5,000 investment could generate roughly £298 in income in 2026.
That income is appealing. But does the wider investment case still stack up?
Strategy reset
The stock had a roller coaster 2025, but the real story isn’t short-term price moves. It’s BP’s decision to refocus on oil and gas, announced at its Investor Day.
Pressure from activist investors played a role, as did the weak returns from parts of its renewables portfolio. At the same time, global demand for oil and gas has proved far more resilient than many expected.
What frustrated investors was the lack of clarity. The oil major grouped its entire renewables exposure inside the Gas and Low Carbon Energy division, obscuring the true scale of writedowns, which have run into billions of dollars.
That’s now changing. Offshore wind has shifted to a partnership model, BP Lightsource is seeking a partner or sale, and the US onshore wind business has been sold. The focus has moved from growth at any cost to returns and cash flow.
The agreed sale of Castrol should also help reduce net debt, strengthening the balance sheet and leaving the business more focused on its most profitable operations.
Why energy still matters
Almost every major commodity performed well in 2025, including copper, gold and platinum. Energy has been the clear exception. That matters, because history shows how quickly this can change.
In 2022, when inflation surged and bonds failed to protect portfolios, energy stocks played an important role. They generated cash, paid dividends, and helped provide balance at a time when traditional assets struggled.
For me, the classic 60:40 mix of shares and bonds no longer offers the same protection it once did. Large government deficits and continued spending have increased the risk of inflation becoming a longer-term feature of the global economy.
That’s why I see energy stocks differently today. They generate real cash flow and can help steady a portfolio should inflation continue to remain sticky. This is the main reason BP earns a place in my Stocks and Shares ISA. It produces strong free cash flow, trades at a lower valuation than many US peers, and supports a dividend that’s well supported by free cash flow.
Risks
Energy remains a cyclical industry. A sustained fall in oil and gas prices would put pressure on BP’s cash flow and could slow dividend growth.
Execution also matters. The strategy reset is still being implemented, and any cost overruns, project delays or weaker returns from a sustained period of lower energy prices would test investor confidence. Finally, the business carries meaningful debt, so further balance sheet progress will be important if market conditions turn less supportive.
Bottom line
In my Stocks and Shares ISA, BP plays a clear role: generating passive income, adding diversification, and providing energy exposure through a business that produces consistent cash flow and supports long-term dividends. For investors assessing the shares today, that combination makes the stock at least worth considering, even alongside other opportunities I’m watching closely.
