Barclays (LSE: BARC) shares flew like a rocket in 2025, up 75% since the start of the year. They’ve more than trebled in the past five years. What that shows most to me is how utterly irrational the stock market can be in the short term. There was no way UK bank shares were ever worth as little as investors rated them before the recovery started to take off in 2024.
I’d be tempted to write a book about the madness of crowds if it hadn’t already been done. But that’s the past, so what might Barclays shares have in store for us in 2026?
I want to stress one cornerstone of stock market investing, worded as a question. How many investing billionaires are there who got rich by timing the markets, and getting into and out of shares like Barclays at just the right moments?
If you don’t know, save yourself any time you might spend trying to find the answer. In my long investing years, I’ve never heard of a single one. No, the real success stories come from patient, long-term investors who look for good value — and then buy and hold.
So we might examine what experts think about Barclays in 2026, and speculate on possible share price movements. But all the time, at the back of my mind I’m thinking about it in terms of long-term buying opportunities. It’s all about the value of Barclays shares, not the price of Barclays shares.
Latest targets
So with all that firmly in our minds, where do City analysts think Barclays shares might go next? Remember that price targets are short-term things. But if they’re presented as a component of forecasts covering the next two or three years, they can help guide us to a better understanding of where investing sentiment might be heading.
In December, both UBS and Deutsche Bank put 515p price targets on Barclays shares. That’s around 10% ahead of the price at the time of writing, though it’s not the biggest target there is. The current top of the range stands at 525p, for a slightly better 12% gain.
The question is, what valuations do prices like these imply?
Predicted values
As things are, we’re looking at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.2 for the end of this year, dropping to 7.8 by 2027 forecasts. A 515p share price would lift those to 12.3 and 8.6 respectively. And the higher 525p target would mean multiples of 12.5 and 9.6 respectively.
One thing that counts against those being decent valuations is Barclays’ dividend. With the share price so much higher now, the forward yield is down at a rather puny 1.8%. And I rate that as possibly the main risk in the coming year, as investors might seek better yields elsewhere.
But even with that, those valuations still look modest to me, and I reckon long-term investors could still do well to consider Barclays shares now. Even if I see very little chance of another 75% rise next year.
