As Europe’s most downloaded rail app, with 27m customers, I’ve always maintained my belief that the company stands to gain the most from digitisation of train tickets in Europe.

We can see this materialise every time the company posts its annual revenue:

However, over the last five years, the FTSE 250 stock has seen its share price fall by 47.5%.

In fact, even after reporting a solid set of results for FY26 earlier today (6 May), the company’s shares fell by 3.7%.

This has made the shares look pretty cheap. So, is this a buying opportunity for investors to consider?

FY26 results

Looking at Trainline’s full-year results for the 12 months to February 2026, there was a lot to like:

• Net ticket sales were up by 7% year on year to £6.3bn.
• Revenue was up 2% to £453m.
• Adjusted EBITDA was up 11% to £177m.
• Operating profit increased by 43% to £122m.

There’s no doubt that 2% revenue growth represents a slowdown. And it’s not so great to see that the firm isn’t benefiting fully from the 7% growth in net ticket sales.

However, what I do really like about these results is that they show that the firm is becoming more efficient. That’s because adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortisation) grew by 11% and operating profit an even more impressive 43%. Therefore, the firm’s operating margin is definitely expanding.

But there are some other details in the annual results that make me understand why shares fell.

Guidance is weak

While Trainline’s growth and expanding margins are certainly causes for optimism, the FTSE 250 company’s guidance is probably not.

The firm is expecting similar net ticket sales of £6.2bn to £6.45bn for FY27. Furthermore, it expects revenue to be £440m to £455m. At the midpoint of £447.5m in revenue, this actually represents a decline in turnover.

This may be concerning for investors, especially as it indicates that competition may be taking market share away from the company.

For example, Uber launched its national rail and coach booking services onto its platform in late 2023. As Uber caters to consumers by providing many travel options and not just rail, it might be more appealing to customers.

But shares are still attractively valued

Even though competition might be a concern for Trainline, there’s no denying its shares are still valued nicely.

The company’s forward price-to-earnings ratio of 10.1 is on the cheaper end.

With this in mind, there are still plenty of promising aspects of the business. For example, revenue from international consumers continues growing strongly, rising by 12% in FY26.

While this isn’t as significant as the UK consumer is to the business right now, it may offset some of the falling revenue resulting from UK sales over time.

Therefore, while it’s valued cheaply, I think investors should consider adding some Trainline shares to their portfolio.

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Wednesday (6 May) saw the company publish its annual results, so what do they tell us about the state of the business?

Earnings growth was strong

At a high level of detail, I reckon Trainline’s results were solid. Revenue grew, albeit by only 2%. Operating profit jumped 43%, EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, deprecation and amortisation) was up 11% and basic earnings per share soared 48%.

Drilling down into the details though, I did see some areas of concern. One was that the UK consumer business – the company’s largest operating division – saw revenues decline 2%.

Small though that may seem, this is an alarming development as it may suggest that Trainline is losing ground to rivals such as Uber (with its own train travel booking option) and contactless card use.

Another was a decline in adjusted free cash flow. This fell 9%, to £66m. That is still substantial for the company given its £840m market capitalisation. It pinned the fall on the timing of working capital movements.

Still, with bears already doubting the long-term growth prospects for Trainline, a near-double-digit fall in adjusted free cash flow does not look good.

The business model continues to generate money

UK consumer sales revenues fell, but the number of tickets the division sold actually increased. That suggests that Trainline is reducing average revenue per ticket. That might help it fight competitors but it could eat into profit margins.

Meanwhile, the international consumer arm and business-to-business solutions division both reported revenue growth. I see that as positive.

Trainline has spent decades building its technology. Rolling it out more widely both helps to get more return on those sunk costs, as well as diversifying the business so that if the UK government does launch its own ticketing service, the overall impact will be somewhat mitigated.

The basic model here seems attractive to me and I think it has legs. I remain unconvinced the government will launch its rival any time soon – if ever. Even if it does, Trainline has a formidable lead in everything from technological development to customer awareness.

I still think this looks cheap

I was not a fan of the growth in the company’s net debt, to £170m. However, Trainline spent £147m buying back its own shares. Given that I think the Trainline share price looks cheap, that could prove to be a wise buy over the long term.

Adding the net debt and market-cap together, the enterprise value now stands at just over £1.0bn. That is around 7 times cash generated from operations. To me that looks cheap for a business of this quality that has ongoing growth opportunities.

The City sees things differently. As I write this on Wednesday morning, the Trainline share price is down 8% in early trading. It has fallen 21% in the past year. I think it looks too cheap and plan to hang on to my shares for the long term.

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With the stock trading near 240p, Trainline shares are now trading just over 40% below where they were at the start of 2025, with some institutional forecasts suggesting it could fall even further.

Yet there are some contrarian bullish voices projecting the share price to climb beyond 500p, potentially more than doubling the money of anyone who buys shares today.

So what’s behind this split in opinions? And could there really be an explosive growth opportunity here?

A powerful digital platform

As a quick reminder, Trainline’s the UK’s leading digital train and coach ticketing platform, operating across the UK and 45+ countries in Europe.

Think of it as the Booking.com of rail travel, gathering the ticket inventory from hundreds of operators all in one place to make it effortless for millions of travellers to compare, book, and manage journeys on the go.

The business model’s capital-light and high-margin. Revenue comes from booking fees as well as a growing suite of ancillary products such as hotels, insurance, and seat upgrades. And based on the firm’s latest trading update, EBITDA growth for its 2026 fiscal year (ending in February) is on track to land between 10% and 13%.

Why it could double… and what could stop it

The bull case for doubling rests with the company’s international expansion strategy. Europe’s rail market is enormous and, unlike the UK, still largely offline. As such, with limited competition, Trainline’s business-to-business platform seems to be gaining a lot of traction and winning new contracts at a pace. In other words, the company appears to be benefiting from a first-mover advantage in Europe.

But this is where things start to get murky. In its currently core market of the UK, Trainline’s facing a potentially existential threat from the government’s Great British Railway (GBR) initiative. The plan is to create a unified government ticketing platform that will directly compete with Trainline’s own solution.

With roughly 65% of net ticket sales coming from UK consumers, the threat of a government-backed alternative is a serious threat to Trainline’s dominant market position. And even if the company manages to protect its market share, this powerful rival will undoubtedly undercut its pricing power, squeezing long-term profit margins.

What’s the verdict?

Leadership has suggested the company could use its own technology to help run GBR itself, evolving the business model, and protecting its industry-leading status. But there’s no guarantee that this offer will be accepted, creating a lot of uncertainty about Trainline’s future in the UK.

For Europe, the opportunity remains undeniably exciting. But there’s still a long way to go before this part of the business grows into a dominant revenue driver. That’s why, personally, I’m staying on the side of caution and keeping Trainline on my watchlist.

But if the uncertainty surrounding GBR is resolved and Trainline’s successful in adapting, today’s attractive valuation could indeed make Trainline worth considering, I feel.

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Lots of people think that way – and end up putting off investing for years. Sometimes, in fact, they put it off so long that they never actually start investing at all!

It makes sense that people want to start investing when they think the market looks very cheap. But doing that can be harder than it seems. In fact, I think that even with all of the geopolitical and economic uncertainty we are facing at the moment, 2026 could still turn out to be a good year to start buying shares.

Here’s why.

What exactly is the stock market?

The stock market is, well… a market of stocks!

Obvious though it may sound, that is important because with hundreds of different shares to choose from, thinking of the market as a single mass can be misleading.

In good markets, some shares will soar – but others will do badly. Conversely, no matter how much the market sinks, some shares tend to do well.

Another important thing to remember is that, as Warren Buffett has said, in the short term the market is a voting machine, but in the long term it is a weighing machine.

What he means by that is that some shares can do well or poorly because they are popular or not. But, over the course of years and decades, brilliant businesses will be rewarded with a strong share price.

Like Buffett, I am a long-term investor not a speculator. So, as long as I have some margin of safety when choosing a share to buy, I do not worry about whether it then goes down in price compared to what I paid.

My approach is to try and buy into great businesses at attractive prices, then hold them for the long term.

Taking that approach, I think now could be as good a time as any for someone to start buying shares — depending on which shares they buy.

Putting the theory into practice

As an example, one share I think looks cheap relative to its long-term prospects is ticketing platform Trainline (LSE: TRN).

The Trainline price has gone up 20% in the past month. Higher oil prices could see more people using the railways, which may boost the firm’s sales.

But that still puts the share price 49% below where it stood five years ago.

Trainline has a strong position in the UK market and is using that to expand internationally. It is highly cash generative.

So, why the share price fall?

Investors are concerned about what government plans for a rival platform could do to Trainline’s sales. I do see that as a risk, but I think it could take years to materialise (if it ever does). It could even turn out to be positive for Trainline, if it can license its technology.

I have taken some profits during the recent share price rise by selling a few of my shares. But I still think Trainline offers value relative to its long-term prospects so plan to hang on to my remaining shares.

The post Does it make sense to start buying shares in 2026? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

In today’s nervous market, global tensions have pushed a lot of prices down. Now, decent companies trade at what look like bargain levels.

Here are three UK stocks forecast to grow 100% (or more) in the coming 12 months. But can they really deliver?

Pinewood Technologies

Pinewood Technologies is a software firm that sells a dealer-management system to car retailers, helping them run everything from sales to servicing in one place.

The share price is down about 30% over the past year after a planned $763m takeover from Apax fell through, which spooked investors and triggered a big sell-off.

Soon after, Jefferies came out with a bullish Buy rating and a 550p target price, suggesting the broker sees major potential in the firm. That tells me the market shock may have been more about sentiment than business quality.

But if growth slows or car dealers cut tech spending in a downturn, things could go south. I’m not convinced just yet, but I’ll keep an eye on it.

IP Group

IP Group‘s (LSE: IPO) a very different beast. It backs early‑stage science and tech companies and then tries to turn those stakes into long‑term value.

Earnings are up 33% year on year, and the balance sheet looks strong, with around £1bn of assets and only minimal debt. That’s encouraging.

More so, the shares trade on a price‑to‑book (P/B) ratio of just 0.51, so I’d only be paying about half what the assets are worth on paper. On the flip side, the net margin’s deeply negative at -200%, meaning it’s wildly unprofitable.

This isn’t a penny stock but it’s got that speculative high-risk/high-reward energy. There could be a powerful recovery if sentiment towards listed venture capital improves. But if portfolio write‑downs continue, the risk’s significant. For now, I’ll put this one on the back burner.

Trainline

As an online platform that sells train tickets in the UK and across Europe, Trainline‘s (LSE: TRN) probably the most familiar on this list. The business is highly profitable, with a return on equity (ROE) of 27% and earnings up 45% year on year. Those are impressive numbers that should catch the attention of any growth-focused investor.

Yet despite the growth, the shares still look heavily undervalued, with a forward price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio of only 8.5. That leaves a lot of room to keep climbing.

Admittedly, the balance sheet’s a bit shaky, with cash flow on the weak side. If travel demand weakens or the economy suffers a downturn, Trainline could be in trouble. Any slump in passenger numbers or regulatory changes are real risks to consider.

But in my opinion, it should be able to keep compounding profits due to its strong competitive position. Of the three on this list, this is definitely one I feel is worth considering. I’m putting it high on my potential Buy list when payday comes at month’s end.

The post Looking for stocks to buy? These 3 are tipped to double in a year appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

As I see it, both have some potential pros and cons.

Let’s take a look at them.

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Tying cash up over the long term

One big difference is that a SIPP’s explicitly designed as a long-term investment vehicle. That makes sense, as it’s a pension.

So the SIPP structure’s designed with a big limitation: the money inside it can’t be withdrawn until you reach 55 (rising to 57 in a couple of years). By contrast, someone can take money out of their ISA at any time.

If the focus is on short- to medium-term costs then the SIPP limitation could be very frustrating.

Then again, it does achieve the objective of stopping people below 55 from dipping into their pension to fund living costs along the way.

Is there such a thing as free money?

Such an enforced discipline could be helpful. But is it enough to explain why someone would tie their money up for decades in a SIPP?

Not necessarily. Another factor’s at play: free money.

Well, it’s not exactly free. Just as there’s no such thing as a free lunch, there’s rarely such a thing as free money.

More accurately, at least for taxpayers, what the Exchequer is doing is giving you back with one hand what it’s already taken with the other. In other words, the ‘free’ money is tax relief.

Still, that can be a substantial financial benefit even for ordinary rate income tax payers — and especially for higher rate and additional rate taxpayers.

That can be a significant motivator. It explains why I’ve chosen to invest through a SIPP in some cases.

The Stocks and Shares ISA doesn’t offer such tax relief.

However, for investors who meet certain criteria (such as starting before they hit 40), a Lifetime ISA can also offer some what the government describes as a “25% bonus” on contributions up to £4,000 a year.

I’d happily take advantage of that — if only I met the criteria!  

Shielding gains and income

Both types of ISA I mentioned (as well as a Junior ISA) keep dividends or capital gains inside their tax-free wrapper. So does a SIPP.

That effectively means that the portfolio value can hopefully grow, unimpeded by income tax on dividends or capital gains tax.  

In it for the long term

An example of a share I own in my SIPP is Trainline (LSE: TRN) – and its recent performance is abysmal! It’s down 43% in a year and has more halved over five.

Plus it doesn’t pay a dividend. So it’s academic to me for now that any dividends from it would be exempt from income tax thanks to me holding it in my SIPP.

So why do I own it?

The Trainline share price has tanked because of a perceived big risk: the government plans a similar platform run by a nationalised railway company.

I think the fears are overblown. It took Trainline many years to build what it has. I think the putative rival will either not materialise any time soon, or will simply try to buy Trainline’s technology.

Meanwhile, Trainline is profitable and has a strong market niche.

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Ready for departure

The first one is Trainline (LSE:TRN). The stock is down 45% over the past year, which will alarm some investors. Part of this revolves around worries with the UK government’s plan to launch a state-backed rail ticketing platform under Great British Railways. After all, this could erode Trainline’s core market share. However, implementation might be several years away, so I don’t see this as a concern right now.

In terms of forecasts, Deutsche Bank is predicting it could rise to 580p in the coming year. Considering the current share price of 204p, this represents a well over 100% increase. Even when I take the average of the 14 contributors I have access to, it’s a very respectable 381p. This reflects an 87% rally.

Of course, these are just predictions. But the bias is definitely towards the stock moving higher. Part of that comes from the valuation, with the share price move in the past year making it look attractive for value buyers. Further, H1 2025 results from November showed a 14% increase in profits compared with the same period last year. It also revised earnings higher, and expects net ticket sales to rise by 6%-9%.

The business flagged up rising leisure travel and general strength in the UK consumer, which is a great sign for further growth in 2026. I agree that the shadow of the potential state platform will linger, but if anything, it might have caused the stock to become oversold right now.

Time for an extra slice

Another example is Domino’s Pizza (LSE:DOM). In a similar way to Trainline, the stock has been beaten up recently, down 39% over the past year and currently trading at 182p.

Despite this, some analysts remain optimistic about the company’s future. For example, Douglas Jack at Peel Hunt is still predicting the stock to rally to 275p this year. In terms of reasoning, the note said “we believe Domino’s valuation overlooks it having the most profitable franchisees and very large-scale competitive advantages”.

Valuation appears to be the main factor here, with the average target price from 10 contributors at 244p. The stock recently hit its lowest level in a decade, though in some respects the decline is warranted given business conditions. Domino’s revised earnings were lower last summer due to weak demand and rising costs. In a November update, it spoke of a “tough operating environment” that the management team believe could persist into this year.

That remains a risk going forward. However, Domino’s is one of the most recognised pizza brands in the UK. It boasts a strong digital ordering platform, with the brand name giving it pricing power and customer loyalty even in tighter consumer spending periods.

On balance, I think both companies are higher-risk options for investors to consider, but the potential rewards (reflected in the forecasts) could be lucrative.

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But as painful as these losses undoubtedly are, the best buying opportunities are often among the stocks that have suffered a massive downturn. Just take a look at what happened to Rolls-Royce shares over the last five years.

So what happened to these businesses? And is now the time to think about buying?

What’s going on with Trustpilot shares?

2025’s been quite a volatile year for the software-as-a-service online reviewing platform. Despite posting strong financial results, concerns have been mounting about the platform’s reliance on a small number of key customers and seemingly lacklustre conversion rates.

Despite management’s efforts, around 97% of businesses on Trustpilot have a free account and don’t pay for a subscription to the service’s various tools for marketing and analytics. This bearish sentiment has since been sent into overdrive following a short-seller report published earlier this month.

The report accuses Trustpilot of “mafia-style” practices, facilitating fake reviews to extort non-subscription users, and ultimately trading its integrity for money. Trustpilot, of course, denies all of these allegations. But with sentiment surrounding its monetisation already a bit shaky, the report unsurprisingly caused many investors to jump ship.

What about Trainline?

Much like Trustpilot, Trainline’s latest financials have also been relatively strong. In the six months leading to August, net ticket sales jumped 8%, while operating profits charged ahead by 38% reaching £68m, thanks to successful cost-cutting efforts.

Yet, once again, it’s external forces sending the stock price in the wrong direction.

The chief concern surrounds the government’s Great British Railways plan to introduce a state-backed, commission-free ticketing platform. That’s a direct threat to Trainline’s business model, undercutting both its profit margins and competitive moat in a single move.

Needless to say, this new policy risk adds a lot of uncertainty even in the long run, with experts cutting share price targets and downgrading their recommendations to Hold.

A buying opportunity?

Taking a contrarian stance on high-quality companies impacted by short-term challenges is a proven recipe for tasty stock market returns. And looking at these two FTSE shares, there’s still a lot to like, especially since the recent sell-offs have dragged their valuations to much more attractive levels.

But out of the two, Trustpilot looks like the more interesting prospect, in my mind. While troubling, it’s important to remember that short seller reports are almost always exaggerated, and several inaccuracies have already been identified.

Subsequently, while the shares are still down, it has nonetheless already jumped back more than 23% since the report was published. Given the group’s solid fundamentals and the stock market’s propensity to overreact, I think the FTSE stock deserves a closer look.

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But could the government’s intention to nationalise the rail network severely disrupt Trainline’s business? Let’s take a look.

All change

Last month, the government published a response to its consultation on the Railways Bill and the future of the industry.

Although a number of respondents had argued that the state-owned Great British Railways (GBR) should be the only retailer for tickets, the Department for Transport concluded: “We see significant value in the role of independent retailers, as they help to innovate and drive up standards for passengers“.

The report said that it would be preferable if Trainline and its competitors (including Uber) continued to operate alongside GBR in a “fair and open market”. However, of concern for Trainline’s shareholders, the government did announce plans to enable GBR to develop its own “user-friendly” website and app.

This week (9 December), I heard the boss of Trainline having to defend his company’s policy to charge a fee on advance ticket sales. Given that the group isn’t a charity and has spent millions building its own technology platform, this seems reasonable to me.

But the BBC interview did raise some questions in my mind that nobody’s in a position to answer yet. Namely, how much will GBR charge customers who want to buy a ticket? Will it want to undercut its competitors? What level of profit will the railway’s ticketing arm seek to make each year? And when is this all going to start?

A strong track record

Although it’s never a good time to find out that a new competitor is about to enter your market, the timing for Trainline is particularly unfortunate given that the business is performing well at the moment.

Compared to the same period a year earlier, during the six months to August, net ticket sales were up 8%. Operating profit was 38% higher and basic earnings per share increased by 27%.

Rising earnings and a falling share price means the company’s shares are pretty cheap at the moment. In fact, they trade on only 11.6 times adjusted earnings for the year ended 28 February. But I think this fairly reflects the uncertainty about the future of its UK business with around two-thirds of the group’s net ticket sales coming from this country.   

However, the European market’s worth €55bn, so there are plenty of other opportunities. If its UK business did suffer significantly, Trainline could always seek to take advantage of EU competition rules and establish itself in other markets alongside its existing operations in France, Spain and Italy. The group has sensibly built its technology with this in mind.

But until we know the charging structure of the new state-owned ticket retailer — and the timescales involved — it makes the investment case for Trainline too risky for my liking. On this basis, the stock’s not for me.

Instead, I think there are plenty of better opportunities available elsewhere.

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In some ways, this is understandable. FTSE 250 firms are far more exposed to the UK economy, which has hardly been firing on all cylinders for, well, seemingly forever now. As such, investor interest in UK mid-caps as a category remains weak.

However, sentiment for individual firms can quickly change. I’ve seen this with a couple of turnaround FTSE 250 shares I’ve highlighted this year — hydrogen stock Ceres Power and animal genetics firm Genus.

Year to date, they’re up 116% and 66%, respectively.

Europe’s leading rail app

Another turnaround candidate that sticks out to me in the FTSE 250 is Trainline (LSE:TRN). Its share price has crashed 43% since December 2024.

Trainline is Europe’s most downloaded rail app, with 27m users (around 18m in the UK). It earns commission and fees on ticket sales, as well as ancillary services like travel insurance and advertising.

In theory, as more people opt for digital bookings, this market-leading firm’s share price should be doing well. However, a massive regulatory dark cloud has been hanging over the tech firm.

Namely, the UK government’s plan to launch a ticketing platform under Great British Railways as part of broader rail industry reform. This could reduce Trainline’s dominance in the UK, making this an obvious risk.

On top of this, there’s the expanded pay-as-you-go contactless ticketing across more of the rail network. However, Trainline only expects this project to put around £150m of net ticket sales at risk (about 4% of its UK total). 

Super-low valuation

Despite these potential challenges, I think there are a few things to like here. First, Trainline appears to have a sizeable long-term growth opportunity across multiple European markets.

Trainline is well placed to scale in continental Europe, particularly in Spain, France and Italy as carrier competition becomes more widespread over the next few years. The three markets generate industry passenger revenues of around €17bn per annum, expected to grow to €23bn by 2030.

Trainline.

Additionally, the company has a thriving business-to-business operation (called Solutions). This division provides ticketing technology and data to rail companies, operators and other travel apps. 

In H1, Solutions saw net ticket sales grow 18%, with revenue 5% higher at £94m (around 40% of total group revenue). This high-margin unit makes up more than 50% of profits.

On its consumer app, Trainline has launched a personalised AI assistant, offering real-time rail travel advice, as well as agentic tools like refund processing without human intervention. I doubt Great British Railways’ app will prove as innovative (but I could be wrong).

It’s also encouraging to see the company buying back shares. In September, it launched a £150m programme, adding to its previous £75m buyback.

For FY26, ending February, the company expects net ticket sales growth of 6%-9%, and adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%-13%. So its hardly in dire straits.

Finally, the stock looks dirt cheap, trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of just over 10 times. I can see why Berenberg analysts recently put a price target of 500p on Trainline.

That’s 104% above the current 245p — a price I think bargain hunters should note and I see it as one to consider.

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