There are quite a few names on my list. But there’s one in particular I think investors might not be paying attention to right now.

What’s the stock?

The stock is Informa (LSE:INF). It’s a FTSE 100 firm that’s primarily in the business of connecting businesses.

This involves running trade shows and conferences, as well as making digital connections. And it’s been a tricky few months for the firm.

Informa owns some of the world’s biggest trade shows. But it’s also been working on a joint venture with the Dubai World Trade Centre.

The plan is to launch this onto the stock market later this year. The conflict in Iran, however, is making this more complicated than it should be.

Fluctuating oil prices are having a knock-on effect on shares generally. That makes it hard to know what the firm might raise in an initial public offering (IPO). 

That makes the conflict in the Middle East an ongoing risk. But there’s also plenty to be positive about, despite the 14% decline in the last six months.

A growing cash machine

Informa’s most recent results were very strong. Revenues were up 6.3%, operating income climbed 8.7%, and earnings per share increased 11%. 

Those are strong numbers, especially for a stock trading at a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple of 14.6. And there’s another key metric worth noting.

Operating cash conversion – which Informa defines as cash from operations as a percentage of adjusted operating profits – was 106%. And this is very important.

With any business, it’s important to pay attention to how much of its income becomes cash that can be used by the business. And 106% is very high.

One of Informa’s key strengths is its asset-light operating model. Its primary assets are intellectual property, rather than heavy machinery or properties.

Source: Company Website

These don’t have the same maintenance requirements. And that’s why the firm can generate operating cash conversion above 100%.

Lease liabilities

Informa runs its events from venues it leases, rather than owning them outright. I think that’s a good thing, but it raises an important point for investors.

Under IFRS accounting requirements, the impact of lease liabilities doesn’t always show up in cash from operations. But it’s a real expense.

Informa recorded £884.8m in free cash flow in 2025, but investors should adjust this for lease expenses.

This involves a reduction of £46.1m for principal repayments and £16.1m in interest. So £62.2m in total to come off the initial amount stated.

That leaves £822.6m for paying down debt, share buybacks, dividends, and further investments. At a £13.8bn enterprise value, that’s a 6.18% return.

Is that good for a business like Informa? With strong intellectual property driving decent growth, it has to be worth a closer look. 

Long-term opportunity

Informa’s share price is moving around due to the implications of the conflict in Iran. But I think the long-term picture is clearer.

Trade shows and conferences have proved resilient in the past. And I think the FTSE 100 firm has some of the best assets in the industry so could be worth considering.

Stephen Wright owns shares in Informa.

The post Looking for buying opportunities in June? Here’s 1 to consider from my Stocks and Shares ISA appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

A stock market melt-up is the opposite of a crash. And investors need to think about this as a real possibility.

Tail risks? What tail risks?

Here’s the list of threats to the stock market identified by fund managers surveyed by Bank of America in April:

Source: HedgeFundTips

The most obvious point is that things are far more stable in the Middle East than they were. And there’s reason to think this might continue. 

An offensive around Kharg Island – or anywhere in the Persian Gulf – is difficult between May and September. The heat makes it incredibly hard. The US has also been using ammunition faster than it can produce it. That also acts as a deterrent to continued hostilities.

It’s never wise to dismiss the threat of a stock market crash entirely. But I think investors need to be alive to the idea that the next big move might be up. 

The big question is what to do. Getting ready for a melt-up doesn’t mean buying indiscriminately. But it does involve thinking carefully.

What should investors do?

The thing to do is to figure out what stocks are worth. That helps give an indication of what might still be worth buying if things do go higher.

One way to do this is with a reverse discounted cash flow (DCF) calculation. It helps investors figure out how much it’s reasonable to pay for a stock. 

A reverse DCF analysis uses two inputs. The first is a desired rate of return and the second is the company’s enterprise value and cash flows. 

From this it calculates an implied growth rate. And investors can assess whether or not they think this is plausible.

One stock I’ve been thinking about is Informa (LSE:INF). It’s a FTSE 100 company that organises trade shows and conferences. I’ve been buying the stock recently. But will it still be cheap if it surges 20% from here?

Valuation

Informa has an enterprise value of 13.94bn and made £849m in free cash in 2025. My desired rate of return from the stock is 9%.

If the stock surges 20%, the enterprise value will reach £16.08bn. On that basis, the required growth rate is 3.5% a year.  I think that’s highly achievable. Informa’s trade shows are industry leaders and have some very attractive unit economics. 

A global recession might threaten sales in any given year. And the firm has heavy exposure to the Middle East, which is obviously a risk. 

The firm is targeting 5% annual sales growth and earnings per share to increase by 8% a year. That’s over the medium term.

Those numbers are well ahead of what I think the company needs to do. So I expect to keep buying even if the stock market rips higher.

Stock market moves

In some cases, higher prices can be a chance to take profits. But this isn’t always the case. With Informa, there’s a long way to go before it stops being a buy for me. And that’s good to know.

The key — as always – is valuation. That’s what distinguishes stocks that are still in buying territory from ones where it’s time to think about moving on.

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It’s not easy to find attractive buying opportunities in this kind of situation. But that’s exactly what I’m looking to do. 

Charlie Munger

My views on this come from Charlie Munger. Warren Buffett’s former right-hand man at Berkshire Hathaway was an amazing source of wisdom.

In 2022, Munger was asked at the Daily Journal meeting about conserving cash for future opportunities. His response was the following:

In my whole adult life I’ve never hoarded cash waiting for better conditions. I’ve just invested in the best things I could find. I don’t think I’m going to change now.

I’m doing the same in my Stocks and Shares ISA. And there are two main reasons for this. 

One is that there’s no guarantee something better will come along. That’s true even with the stock market at record highs.

The other is that I think there are still opportunities that look genuinely attractive. And that’s where I’m focusing my attention.

Where to find opportunities? 

There’s a lot of money in the stock market looking at short-term opportunities. By that I mean the next 90 days.

As someone looking a bit further ahead, that’s probably a good thing for me. It gives me a chance to look where others aren’t.

A good example is the conflict in the Middle East. That might well be a big theme for the stock market in the next three months.

I don’t, however, think the next 10 or 15 years are going to be dominated by the current conflict. So I can view things differently. 

There are stocks that others are wary of over the next three months that I’m positive about from a 10-year perspective. And we might both be right.

A FTSE 100 stock

Informa (LSE:INF) is a good example. The stock has been falling as a result of the situation in the Middle East, but I’ve been buying it recently.

The threat is real – the firm has significant operations in Dubai, including an upcoming IPO. And the conflict threatens to disrupt this.

My view, however, is that the company’s intangible assets are very strong. These are its trade shows, which are industry-leading events. Over time, I expect these to generate durable returns for the company. And with the stock 19.67% off its recent highs, I see an opportunity.

The share price could fall further form here, if the conflict escalates. But from a long-term perspective, this is an entry point I’m happy with.

Buy now

The stock market might be at record highs. But that doesn’t make me think I should be conserving cash and waiting for opportunities. 

 Informa shares are well off their highs. However, the company’s main challenge looks like a short-term problem to me. That’s why I’ve been adding to my investment in the company. And I think there are plenty of other opportunities for investors to consider.

The post With the stock market at record highs, should I invest now or wait? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

That’s highly attractive — so long as you’re comfortable leaving the cash untouched until later life.

SIPP vs Stocks and Shares ISA

To repeat, both SIPPs and Stocks and Shares ISAs let your investments grow without paying capital gains tax or dividend tax, but the big difference is how tax works going in and coming out.

With a SIPP, you get tax relief on contributions at your income tax rate. A basic‑rate payer only needs to put in £80 for £100 to be invested. In exchange, the money’s locked up until at least age 55. Withdrawals in retirement beyond the usual 25% tax‑free lump sum are taxed as income.

An ISA is the opposite: no tax relief on the way in, but withdrawals are completely tax‑free and you can access the money whenever you like.

Please note that tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in future. The content in this article is provided for information purposes only. It is not intended to be, neither does it constitute, any form of tax advice. Readers are responsible for carrying out their own due diligence and for obtaining professional advice before making any investment decisions.

Why now could be a good moment

Soon, a new tax year will begin, meaning a fresh SIPP allowance. At the same time, the FTSE 100 has recently pulled back by around 10% from record highs. The dip means quality companies are trading cheaper than they were just a few weeks ago. For a retirement investor with a 20-30-year time horizon, short‑term dips shouldn’t be feared.

Historically, markets have tended to recover from setbacks and go on to make new highs over long periods, even if the path’s bumpy.

One stock on my radar

Many FTSE 100 names such as Airtel Africa and Glencore have already enjoyed strong growth and now trade on high earnings multiples. In Gencore’s case, over 230 times earnings. They may still do well, but near‑term growth could be limited.

Informa (LSE: INF) looks a bit different. The group runs events, data services and academic publishing, and in 2024 it delivered record revenue of about £3.6bn. Adjusted earnings per share have kept growing, but 2025 statutory earnings fell sharply due to heavy non‑cash amortisation and other charges. Subsequently, its trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio looks extreme, in the high hundreds.

On the road to recovery?

Looking ahead, consensus forecasts for Informa point to recovering earnings, leaving the shares on a far more down‑to‑earth forward multiple around 12.5.

Some investors worry that artificial intelligence (AI) could disrupt parts of Informa’s data and academic businesses. Others see AI as a tool to make its events and information products more valuable.

Analysts at Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan both rate the stock Overweight, with targets comfortably above today’s share price around 740p. Wider consensus 12‑month targets eye prices in the 900p-1,000p area — a potential 40%-43% gain.

But forecasts are never set in stone and the risks are evident. Event spending can drop in a recession, academic budgets are under pressure, and any disappointment on AI or earnings could keep the shares volatile.

A balanced SIPP portfolio

For UK investors thinking about a SIPP, Informa’s worth considering. But it should sit alongside steadier dividend payers and defensive stocks.

A mix of income, growth and defensive stocks are a popular way to limit risk. Dividends provide ongoing cash flow, while growth shares aim to lift the value of the pot over time.

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As a result, investors have stopped worrying about artificial intelligence (AI). But what should investors do right now?

Risks

The Bank of America‘s fund manager survey from February revealed investors saw AI as the largest ‘tail risk’. How quickly things can change.

Source: Hedgefund Tips

The data for March shows that geopolitics is the biggest concern for 37% of fund managers surveyed. And that makes sense. 

There’s plenty for investors to be concerned about right now. At a basic level, higher oil prices increase costs for a lot of businesses. That, however, isn’t the full extent of the issue. There are concerns that existing tensions elsewhere could also escalate. 

One example is Taiwan. With the US focused on the Middle East, there are some who think China might make a move for Taiwan. I don’t know how likely that is, but it’s hard to rule out entirely. And that means things could get even worse from this point.

What to do?

I was fortunate enough to interview former UK fund manager Charlie Huggins last week. And he told me what he’s doing right now.

In short: nothing. Market volatility makes it feel as though investors have to be buying or selling, but this is often a mistake. In general, I agree. But more specifically, I think that making a move just because of what’s going on at the moment is risky. 

I don’t think there’s much point in trying to figure out how the conflict will play out. It might be over in weeks or extend for years. Put another way, the situation doesn’t feel like the new normal. And that makes it different to AI, which does look like it’s here to stay.

I’m therefore not buying or selling anything based on a specific view about the current conflict. But I do also see an opportunity…

An opportunity

Shares in FTSE 100 events company Informa (LSE:INF) are down 10% in the last month. But that’s not because of oil prices.

It’s because the company has been targeting the Middle East as a growth opportunity. And it’s already had to reschedule events in the region. That incurs costs, which obviously isn’t good for the firm. But the bigger issue is that it makes it hard to IPO its joint venture with Dubai World Trade Centre.

None of that is good. Importantly though, Informa’s key assets are the events in its portfolio and these should retain their long-term value.  Events were hugely disrupted by the pandemic, but the company bounced back strongly and I think there’s a lesson here.

The disruption’s real, but I believe it’s also temporary. And that’s why I’m looking to take advantage of the drop and add to my investment.

What happened to doing nothing?

Is that a way of doing nothing? Not exactly – but I think it’s in the spirit of what Huggins told me. I haven’t started buying Informa shares just because of the conflict. I’ve owned it for a while and been looking for opportunities.

In other words, I’m sticking with my long-term strategy. Whichever way things develop, I’m pleased to be buying Informa shares at today’s prices.

The post This could be the start of a stock market crash. Here’s what I’m doing… appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

The stock looked reasonably attractive to me even more today’s move. But a big drop means it’s jumped the queue to the top of my ‘to-buy’ list for this month.

Iran disruption

Military strikes in Iran from the US and Israel have jolted the stock market this morning and share prices are going in different directions. And Informa is one of the casualties. 

One of the biggest reasons for this is oil, with Iran one of the largest global producers. But Informa isn’t a major consumer and that’s not why the stock’s falling.

The FTSE 100 firm is in the trade show business. And while it doesn’t have operations in Iran, it has been focusing on growth in the Middle East – specifically in Dubai and Riyadh. 

Political unrest in the region can therefore be a major source of disruption. As a result, the stock’s falling due to the heightened instability. 

Joint venture

As of this year, Informa has a huge joint venture with the Dubai World Trade Centre. This combines some of each company’s strongest assets into a powerhouse of a business.

The plan is to launch this onto the stock market in the second half of the year. But political instability in the Middle East could make that very bad timing.

To say this is important for the FTSE 100 company is an understatement (the CEO even relocated to Dubai last year to oversee the operation). 

In response however, Informa has announced plans to advance its £200m share buyback. And with the stock falling, I think it could be a good time to consider a similar move.

Quality

From an investment perspective, I think Informa’s one of the FTSE 100’s most attractive companies. Its trade shows are industry-leading events that are a crucial part of the calendar for a number of businesses.

The economics of these are also very attractive for the firm. They don’t have the maintenance costs associated with owning venues, making them highly cash-generative.

A 10% decline in a day means Informa’s market value is now below £10bn. And I think that’s fundamentally cheap for a business that made £700m in free cash last year. 

Investors should expect ups and downs. But the company has a lot of unique strengths that are likely to prove hard to disrupt over the long term and that makes it attractive for investors. 

Opportunity

There’s a lot to think about in the Middle East at the moment, for reasons that go far beyond investing. But the stock market – naturally – has its eyes on the implications for businesses.

I’ve been looking for an opportunity to add to my investment in Informa for some time. And I think the share price falling in response to the latest disruption might be it.

Instability could affect the firm’s immediate plans. But the stock looks extremely good value to me, so it’s just jumped to the top of my ‘to-buy’ list for this month.

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Right now, the worry is that the firm’s academic publishing division might be disrupted by artificial intelligence (AI). I’m an academic though, and I think the chances of this are close to zero.

What’s the problem?

One of Informa’s divisions is Taylor & Francis which publishes academic books and journals. Traditionally, this is where researchers go to find the latest developments in various disciplines.

This is a hugely profitable operation with low capital requirements. Research is commissioned by funding bodies, undertaken by researchers, published in journals, and then paid for by universities.

Taylor & Francis is also a big part of Informa’s overall business. It makes up around 20% of revenues and a bigger slice of operating profits, so it would be a big problem if anything happened to it.

The threat is that specialised AI research tools might disrupt this. If researchers can get a good enough impression of the latest developments from AI, will they still need journal subscriptions?

How big’s the problem?

I got my PhD just over 10 years ago and I’ve worked in academia since then. And from my perspective, there’s both a short answer to that question and a longer one. 

The short answer is ‘yes’ and the longer one is ‘yes they will’. I don’t see a plausible situation where academics and institutions settle for anything less than first-hand access to the latest research. 

In my discipline, students and researchers working on Plato’s Republic just have to read the original book. Reading a handbook or commentary on it isn’t a substitute – it needs to be the original.

That’s not because the secondary literature isn’t great – a lot of it is – it’s because the only way to get a proper understanding of the book is by reading it. And the same is true elsewhere in academia.

AI summaries

The issue is that summaries or overviews inevitably involve making decisions about which bits of the text are more important than others. Even an approach that purports to be neutral does this.

That’s not a criticism – it doesn’t come from any lack of diligence or judgement. It’s unavoidable and that’s the case whether the summary is put together by a human or by an AI agent. 

In other words, the reason academics still look for first-hand research isn’t because there aren’t good summaries around. There are, but they’re not an adequate replacement and they never can be.

That means Informa’s publishing division is extremely difficult to disrupt. From my perspective, a world where universities stop subscribing to journals and academic publications isn’t realistic.

So… buy?

Informa’s shares are 16% off their highs and the driving force seems to be concern about AI. But in academia, there’s no substitute for first-hand research and I don’t see that changing.

The bigger risk – in my view – is the prospect of customers going out of business. Almost all UK universities are under financial pressure and a lot of them are in danger of closing altogether. 

That’s something to keep an eye on. But while the stock market’s worrying about AI replacing journals, I think savvy investors might consider adding the stock to their buy lists.

The post I’m an academic: I say AI won’t kill this FTSE 100 stock appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Rolls-Royce has been one of the index’s top performers since the end of the pandemic. And I think I can see a stock that might have similar potential going forward.

Informa

One stock I have high expectations for is Informa (LSE:INF). The stock has been steady over the last 10 years, but the underlying business has been through a really interesting transition.

After a series of acquisitions, the company has grown into a global leader in the trade show and conference industry. And this is a business with extremely attractive unit economics. 

Informa’s key assets are intangible – they’re things like trademarks, brands, and intellectual property. The important thing here is that they don’t need repairs, upgrades, or maintenance.

That means the company’s capital requirements are relatively low. As a result, it can use the majority of the cash it generates to support growth, pay dividends, or fund share buybacks.

A company in transition

Informa’s revenues have tripled over the last 10 years, but its earnings per share are largely unchanged. That’s not a positive sign, but there’s more to this than meets the eye. 

The main reason for this is the fact that the company’s share count is much higher than it was a decade ago. Issuing shares to fund acquisitions is one cause of this, but there’s a bigger reason.

The Covid-19 pandemic caused severe disruption to Informa’s business. And while it’s (hopefully) unlikely to be repeated, the prospect of a global recession remains an ongoing risk for the firm.

Demand, however, has recovered sharply. As a result, the company is now bigger and stronger than it was 10 years ago and it’s started bringing its share count back down through buybacks.

The next Rolls-Royce?

Rolls-Royce has been the FTSE 100’s top-performing stock since the end of the pandemic. But I think that a lot of what has driven the company’s success also applies to Informa.

A strong recovery in travel demand led to higher cash flows. This allowed Rolls-Royce to bring down its debt and lower its share count, which caused profits to rise even further. 

Informa looks to me like it’s in a similar position. Trade shows have recovered strongly and this could be the engine that drives some outstanding returns for investors over the next few years.

The two companies aren’t identical – and Tufan Erginbigiç has been a big part of Rolls-Royce’s success. But I think the stock market might be overlooking some important similarities.

Outlook

Informa has spent the last decade making moves to turn itself into a powerhouse in the trade show industry. But it isn’t yet showing up in the company’s earnings per share.

It won’t happen overnight, but I expect this to change in the next 10 years. And if it does, the share price could move a lot higher over the next 10 years.

That’s why I own the stock in my portfolio and why it’s on the list of shares I’m keeping an eye on at the moment. It’s not the most famous FTSE 100 name, but that doesn’t bother me at all.

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According to Warren Buffett, the best stocks are ones that pay out more to investors over time. Finding these can be the difference between doing well and earning huge passive income.

Buffett’s secret sauce

Coca-Cola and American Express have been two of Berkshire Hathaway’s best income investments. And in the 2023 shareholder letter, Buffett outlined why this has been the case.

According to Buffett, the reason is that the companies have been able to grow their earnings over time. As a result, they now pay bigger dividends than they used to. 

Even with companies that don’t grow, investors can reinvest the dividends they receive to compound their returns. And this can be a powerful strategy over the long term. 

The best investments, though, are ones that return more cash each year without someone buying more shares. That’s what has happened with Coca-Cola and American Express.

With Coca-Cola, the company has gone from returning $75m to Berkshire in 1994 to $204m in 2025. And that’s without Buffett’s team buying any more shares.

The business has continued to grow while Berkshire has been able to invest the cash in other opportunities. That’s why it’s been such a good passive income investment.

What about now?

Are there any companies like Coca-Cola that investors can buy today? I think there might be – and there might even be some on the UK stock market. 

Informa (LSE:INF) is one example. The FTSE 100 company might not be a household name, but there’s a lot to like about it as a business that can generate passive income for investors.

The company is in the events business. Specifically, it organises trade shows and conferences for various different industries, from concrete products to luxury yachts. 

Importantly, the firm has relatively low capital requirements. It doesn’t own the venues its events are held in and this means it doesn’t have the associated maintenance expenses. 

This kind of business can be vulnerable to economic downturns. And that means the potential for increasing tensions or even a full-blown international trade war is a significant risk.

Informa, however, has shown itself to be a resilient business. It’s been growing strongly since the end of the Covid-19 pandemic and I think there could well be more to come. 

Capital efficiency

Companies with low capital requirements often make for good investments. But this is especially important for dividend investors looking for passive income.

Reinvesting dividends is one way of growing a portfolio. The best companies, though, return more cash to shareholders without needing additional cash from investors.

One example is Informa, which has relatively little in the way of equipment to maintain. That’s why I own it in my portfolio and plan to keep adding to it in the future.

The post Forget high yields? Here’s the smart way to build passive income with dividend shares appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

Outside a handful of explosive tech names, there’s not much growth coming from US stocks right now. And the UK has more in the way of exciting opportunities than you might think. 

Growth stocks

Outside the collection of stocks known as the Magnificent Seven, earnings growth has been pretty weak recently. Analysts at JP Morgan are expecting growth to fall to around 3% in Q4.

Source: JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Q4 2025

That means anyone looking to buy an S&P 500 tracker fund had better hope the 10 largest names can keep growing. They’re holding the entire show together by themselves right now.

A small number of companies doing all the work in terms of growth means valuations have become stretched in relative terms. And that gives investors looking at US stocks a dilemma.

Source: JP Morgan Guide to the Markets Q4 2025

The choice is between paying very high multiples for a few growth names, or looking at a large sea of businesses that aren’t growing much. Neither option is particularly attractive. 

B2B events

Investors looking at UK equities arguably have a much easier time of things. Take Informa (LSE:INF) – the owner of major trade shows globally – as an example. 

The company’s revenues have grown at 18.5% a year for the last five years. Now, that does include a Covid-19 recovery, but the average annual growth rate since 2015 is still 12%. 

Investors should note that some of this has been driven by acquisitions, which are naturally one-off. And Informa has done some deals at high multiples recently, which creates risk.

The firm’s asset-light model, however, gives it some very attractive economic properties. So at a (forward) price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 15, I think it’s well worth considering. 

B2C products

Games Workshop (LSE:GAW) is another FTSE 100 firm that generates outstanding returns on invested capital. And it’s grown revenues at an average of 17% a year over the last decade.

The big question is whether or not it can continue. The growth rate over the last 10 years has been very uneven and this illustrates the risk of a recession for the company. 

It’s worth noting, though, that its products aren’t exactly big-ticket items compared to things like holidays or home improvements. And I think this makes the firm unusually resilient.

The stock also has a 3.5% dividend yield, which is unusual for something growing at that rate. As a result, I think investors looking to build wealth over time should consider buying it.

Building wealth

Outside a few outstanding names that trade at relatively high multiples, the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 look fairly similar to me. And I think both have growth stocks worth considering. 

In the UK, Informa and Games Workshop are two that investors looking to build wealth should check out. In my view, they’re among the best stocks to consider buying right now.

The post Looking to build long-term wealth? Consider buying these FTSE 100 shares appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.