2022 has proved a brutal year so far for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) shares and they’re down 45% year to date. However, over a 12-month period the shares have returned 5%, and over the past five years a whopping 747%.

So, should I be capitalising on the recent price fall and adding Tesla shares to my portfolio? Or should I steer clear of the world’s largest electric vehicle company? Let’s investigate.  

Why the stock has fallen

One of the primary reasons why Tesla stock has taken a hit over the past few months is rising inflation. US inflation reached 8.6% in May, vastly outpacing analysts’ expectations. Inflation erodes the future value of company earnings and tends to put pressure on stock valuations. This is especially true when interest rates also rise, as they have done in the last month in both the US and UK. Tesla CEO Elon Musk took to Twitter to announce he had a “super bad feeling” about the US economy, and that Tesla would have to cut its workforce by around 10% to cope. This isn’t good for the firm’s growth and has been reflected in the recent decline in the share price.

In addition to this, the firm has suffered from prolonged Covid-19-related matters. Back in 2020 and 2021, the pandemic led to huge supply bottlenecks that curtailed Tesla’s production. More recently, the lockdown in Shanghai meant that Tesla had to stop its production there, slowing production growth. Even before these shortages, demand was far outweighing the supply of vehicles, so these additional disruptions are really limiting the firm’s growth.

Unappealing valuation

Tesla shares are currently priced at $650. This is some way off of its $1,200 high reached in November 2021. However, the shares still trade on of a monstrous price to earnings (P/E) ratio of 87. For context, good value stocks usually trade under the 10 P/E mark. I don’t think the above macroeconomic and supply risks are priced into Tesla shares, which does worry me.

Reasons to be cheerful

Tesla’s most recent set of results was outstanding. In the first quarter of 2022, the company’s revenues swelled 87% year-on-year, with profits jumping over 130%. Both of these figures vastly outpaced analysts’ expectations, and the shares surged over 5% on the encouraging news. If the company can deliver more results like this, I think investors will react positively and push the stock up further.

The verdict

Although Tesla shares have fallen substantially, the lofty valuation still bothers me. I don’t think the risks facing the firm are fully reflected in the current share price. The next set of results is due for release in late July and could help bump up Tesla stock. However, it’s too uncertain a situation for me to warrant an investment. For that reason, I won’t be buying any shares today.

The post Tesla shares are down 45%: should I buy now? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Dylan Hood has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Tesla. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has made his views on the hydrogen fuel cell technology quite clear. He once called it a “staggeringly dumb” idea when compared to storing power in an efficient battery. But given he runs an electric car company, it’s fair to say he is biased.

Hydrogen technology is gaining significant popularity in several European nations – including France, Germany, Spain, Portugal, Holland, and soon the UK. Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently announced plans for a Green Industrial Revolution and one of its critical points is the use of hydrogen to power industries, transport, and homes.

The UK, along with other European nations, is slowly transitioning to a net-zero emissions economy. I’ve previously discussed what this means for the energy sector. But another crucial evolving industry is the automobile sector.

Today the two most viable solutions to eliminating vehicle emissions are to change the power source to either electric or hydrogen.

An opportunity to beat Tesla?

NASA have been using hydrogen to power its rockets since the 1950s. It is the most abundant element in the galaxy. However, a significant problem with hydrogen technology has been sourcing the fuel.

Originally, hydrogen was extracted from hydrocarbons — commonly referred to as fossil fuels. This is not exactly an environmentally friendly way of acquiring the material.

Luckily ITM Power (LSE:ITM) found a much better solution. Using patented technology, it uses a process called electrolysis to convert water into hydrogen and oxygen. The process produces zero greenhouse gas emissions.

Three projects – three hydrogen opportunities

Today ITM Power has three major projects underway.

The REFHYNE project is the leader in the effort to supply clean refinery hydrogen across Europe. Partnering with Royal Dutch Shell, and the European Commission’s Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking (FCH JU), ITM will install and operate the world’s largest hydrogen electrolyser in Wesseling, Germany.

Its second project, HyDeploy, is experimenting with the viability of blending up to 20% hydrogen into the normal gas supply. The research is being funded by Ofgem, with the University of Keele testing the new solution. If successful, households could see a dramatic drop in energy bills with no changes to their consumption or domestic appliances.

The third project is by far the largest. H2Mobility is an effort to install and operate hydrogen refuelling stations across Europe. Supported by the British and European governments, 21 companies – including Honda, Hyundai, and Nissan – are collaborating to complete the project with ITM providing the fuel.

The bottom line

Combined, these projects, along with new supportive legislation, are making a hydrogen-based energy solution increasingly viable, not just for vehicles but households as well.

Like Tesla in the electric vehicle market, ITM Power has the technology and expertise to lead in the hydrogen market. However, the stock valuation today is borderline insane.

The market has priced the company at £1.6bn. While it may be worth that in the future, today it remains unprofitable and has little more than £3m in revenue.

I am keeping a close eye on the company, but for now, I’m not buying shares.

The post Forget Tesla! I’m looking at this hydrogen stock appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Zaven Boyrazian does not own shares in ITM Power. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Tesla has defied the sceptics, who thought its share price was overvalued when it stood at a fraction of today’s value. Jaws dropped in January, when it was noted that Tesla was worth more than both the Ford Motor Company and General Motors combined. At the time, Tesla’s market cap was $93bn. Today it stands at $393bn.

There are lots of words to describe Tesla’s incredible recent share price performance, but I’ll stick to just the one. Absurd.

The Tesla share price is absurdly high

Don’t get don’t get me wrong, I love what Tesla has done. I’m writing this from Norway, where almost everybody seems to have one, thanks to the generous state subsidies to encourage the shift to electric motoring.

Stylish, clean electric cars, what’s not to like? These are luxury automobiles, but they are getting cheaper. Tesla is cutting prices as it looks to build market share, and to meet its ambitious delivery target of 500,000 motors this year. It has dropped the starting price of its Chinese-made Model 3 saloons by 8% to $36,805, and announced plans to develop a $25,000 vehicle. 

This week’s third-quarter results gave the Tesla share price another lift, as it beat analyst expectations again to deliver a record $8.77bn of revenues, up 39% on last year. 

When one broker asked whether Tesla could deliver between 840,000 and one million cars next year Mr Musk said that was “not far off”. It would be impressive if Tesla did manage that, although analysts currently forecast about 742,000 vehicles.

Tesla isn’t just a carmaker

Given its rapid growth, why do I think the Tesla share price is absurd? Because Ford sold 5.4m units in total last year, but has a market cap of just $32bn, a fraction of Tesla’s $393bn. General Motorcycles sold 7.7m, yet its market cap is just $54bn. Tesla trades at more than 1,000 times earnings. It certainly isn’t cheap.

Anybody buying in to the Tesla share price at today’s dizzying level is assuming that it is virtually going to take over the global car industry. Yet electric cars still make up just 3% of total sales. It has a long journey ahead of it.

Here’s another worry. Tesla has now delivered five consecutive quarterly profits, but wouldn’t have done so without selling carbon credits to rival car makers. No one knows how long this income stream will last.

On the other hand, Mr Musk has worked miracles before. Also, Tesla also has a booming battery storage and sustainable power generation business, which could match its car business one day.

A lot of short sellers have gone broke betting against the Tesla share price. Personally, I wouldn’t buy at today’s dizzying level, that would be absurd.

I might buy if it fell though.

The post Why I think the 725% jump in the Tesla share price is absurd appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Harvey Jones has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Tesla. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Unfortunately, for UK investors it’s hard to profit from Amazon’s meteoric rise. Shares in the company only trade in the US in dollars, which opens investors up to foreign exchange risks as well as higher costs from having to deal in a different country, in a different currency and hold non-sterling denominated shares. 

However, there is one investment trust that has made its reputation by investing overseas and has been a fan of Amazon for many years. To complement its Amazon holdings, the trust also owns the likes of Facebook, Google’s parent company Alphabet and Chinese internet giants Alibaba and Baidu. Put simply, this trust is a play on all things internet and offers exposure to assets UK investors would not usually be able to access without opening a US dollar investment account.

International diversification 

The investment trust in question is the Scottish Mortgage Investment Trust (LSE: SMT). With a market value of £5.5bn, Scottish Mortgage has recently been promoted to the FTSE 100. Year-to-date, shares in the trust are up around 23.4% as it has profited from the US tech sector’s continued positive performance. 

Over the longer term, returns are even more impressive with the trust adding 51% during the past two years excluding dividends. Over the previous five years, it returned 207%, compared to the FTSE 100’s return of 30%.

The divergence in returns between Scottish Mortgage and the FTSE 100 shows how important it is to diversify outside the UK to profit from global investment themes. At the end of the first quarter, the trust’s largest holding was Amazon with a weighting of 9%. This position was closely followed by Tesla with a weighting of 7.7%. China’s Tencent Holdings accounts for 6.1% of assets under management. 

Key themes

These holdings provide exposure to some of the largest investment themes in the world today. That is, the rise of China as a global superpower with over one billion consumers, the shift away from polluting hydrocarbon powered vehicles towards cleaner electric vehicles, and the dominance of online shopping. 

There are few companies listed in the UK that are direct plays on these themes, and those that are, do not compare in terms of size and scale.  This is why Scottish Mortgage would make a great addition to any portfolio. The trust offers exposure to the fast-growing US tech space and China’s economy through a well-diversified portfolio that would be difficult to replicate for most investors. With a total expense ratio of 0.45%, the trust is also relatively cheap. And a dividend yield of 0.76% is on offer for income investors although, considering the holdings, Scottish Mortgage is mainly geared towards capital growth.

The post Is this best way to profit from Amazon.com, Inc’s world domination? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Electric investment

The most traded international stock may surprise some: $40bn tech innovator Tesla Motors (NASDAQ: TSLA.US). Founder Elon Musk, an entrepreneurial designer, engineer and inventor, wants nothing less than to save the world through the power of electric vehicles and solar technology. But is he aiming too high?

Investors were sceptical about the recent merger between Tesla and another Musk project, struggling solar energy firm SolarCity, but fell silent when Tesla unexpectedly posted what was only its second-ever quarterly profit in October. The world is now waiting to see if the new Model 3 Sedan will drive it into the mass market. Investors remain wowed, with the share price up more than 50% over the past year to $250, which leaves it trading at a whopping 137 times earnings. That’s a bit beyond my pocket (like its cars). Tesla thrills, but could also suffer spills. 

Take a bite

The second most popular global stock is no surprise at all: $677bn behemoth Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL.US). Yet it has just been overtaken by Google as the world’s most valuable brand, in the latest Brand Finance Global 500 report. Apple’s brand value has fallen 27% to $107.1bn, due to rising smartphone competition from the likes of Samsung and Huawei, and falling customer goodwill. So has it lost its shine?

A few years ago people couldn’t resist waving their fancy iPhones in my face, yet I still haven’t seen an Apple Watch in the flesh. The company has lost its flash of innovatory genius and I suspect the Western world has hit peak gadget. Sensible people want their lives back.

That said, last week’s Q1 results showed Apple selling more iPhones than ever before, and setting all-time revenue records for iPhone, Services, Mac and Apple Watch. The App Store is doing record business as the company wisely shifts focus from products to services. The stock is up 37% a year to $129. The dividend is higher than 1.77%. Apple still looks worth a bite, especially at 15 times earnings.

In the zone

You need no introduction to $385bn online retailer Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN.US). In fact, you’re probably still paying off the Christmas shopping bill you ran up at Amazon. The Brand Finance Global 500 has just named it one of the companies with the highest rising brand value, up 53%.

It continues to grow strongly while revolutionising the retail market in the US, UK and beyond, and continuing to take market share. It suffered a rare setback in the Q4 with revenues of $43.74bn falling short of the estimated $44.68bn. Even a small slip-up can hit investor confidence when the stock trades at 171 times earnings.

So how much further can Amazon go? The success of Prime and the deep pockets that will allow it to break new markets suggests there’s more to come. Jeff Bezos’s company has justified its sky-high valuation before, and almost certainly will do again.

The post Are Tesla Inc, Apple Inc., & Amazon.com Inc as good as UK investors think they are? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Harvey Jones has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Amazon, Apple, and Tesla. The Motley Fool has the following options: long January 2018 $90 calls on Apple and short January 2018 $95 calls on Apple. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Iron Men

One month ago, I declared FTSE 100 giant BHP Billiton (LSE: BLT) a full-blown mining disaster. It is down another 20% since then, as its props continue to collapse. Over five years is share price is down 60%, and investors who have hung on hoping to recoup their losses have been buried. Right now there seems no end to the misery. Especially with International FC Stone analyst Ed Meir telling Bloomberg that the outlook for King Copper is “grim-t0-bleak” and miners need to start slashing supply as Chinese demand continues to plummet.

Iron ore faces the same dynamic, as supply rises while demand plummets. The price has fallen from $180 a tonne four years ago to around $50 today. Next year consensus suggests that will fall to $45. A stronger dollar won’t help details, if the US does hike rates next month.

Management has been responding in the same way as every other troubled oil and commodity producer: slashing costs and shelving investment, while maintaining supply to keep the cash flowing. There is only one thing left to slash now: the dividend, which currently yields a crazily fragile 9.22%. How long until that comes crashing down?

Something More Earthy 

AIM-listed Rare Earth Minerals (LSE: REM) is also down sharply over the last month, falling 15% from 0.94p to 0.80p. This is more down to a lack of news, rather than bad news. There has been little to inspire investors since its eye-catching deal to supply Tesla Motors with lithium hydroxide from its Sonora field in Mexico, alongside partner Bacanora Minerals.

REM is now focusing on hitting Tesla’s tough two-year performance milestones. If it makes it, investors could hit pay dirt. The recent share price drop could make a decent entry point. Effectively, you are buying blind.

Pretty Poly

Sirius Minerals (LSE: SXX) is another stock in limbo at the moment. The AIM-listed potash miner has clattered over most of the hurdles that lay in the way of winning full approval for its North York Moors potash project, where it hopes to dig the planet’s largest polyhalite mine. But it has a long way to go before it can hit its target of producing 13m tonnes of the fertiliser per year.

Sirius needs to raise as much as £2bn to drive the project forward, a tall order as investors shy away from the commodity sector. But again, this isn’t a metals miner, demand for food is rising and Sirius has already secured polyhalite supply agreements with major agri-business customers. Today it trades at around 18p. Liberum Capital has just set a target price of 38p, suggesting potential upside of around 110p, which is certainly food for thought.

All three commodity stocks come laden with uncertainty but I think future prospects at REM and SXX hold out more hope than BHP Billiton’s troubled recent past.

The post BHP Billiton plc, Rare Earth Minerals PLC Or Sirius Minerals PLC: Which Should You Buy Today? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Is Tesla Motors, the firm developing electric cars and their components, going to make the big money some day when such vehicles take off? I’m less convinced of that.

The thing is, history is against it. When conventional cars were first taking to the roads, it was very difficult to separate the ones that would be genuinely transformative from the many also-rans that would go bust — leading to Warren Buffett’s famous quip about how much safer it would have been to short horses.

The same goes for the pioneers of aviation. It wasn’t them who came to dominate the manufacturing businesses, or build and run the profitable airlines. No, instead it was the subsequent waves of newcomers who perfected the engineering and the art at the right time for the market to take off.

Graveyard?

Only last week, Mr Musk appeared to be mocking a company that has become a byword for biding its time and entering new technological markets when the time is right and its products are right, and which is widely reported to be developing a car to rival Tesla. That company, of course, is Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL.US), described by Mr Musk as “the Tesla Graveyard” because people, he suggested, only get jobs there when they’ve failed to get into Tesla.

I wonder if Mr Musk remembers Nokia, a company that was at the forefront of the early mobile phone revolution? At the time, investors would ask “Who but Nokia would you buy if you want to get into mobile phones?” But the industry was really in its infancy, and it was way too soon to work out who was going to be leading a future more mature market. Nokia is history now, having lost its lead and sold its mobile phones business to Microsoft.

The story with BlackBerry, whose early designs led the way into the smartphone sector, is similar. The firm’s quirky mini-keyboard things still generate affection in some, but the market has moved on to big-screen touchy-feely phones. And today people want iPhones.

History repeats

There’s a more recent example in the smart watch business, with a big demand from sports followers and health enthusiasts for the ability to do location and fitness tracking. Fitbit, which floated on the NYSE this year, was an early pioneer, and I have one of their devices — the watch-like Fitbit Surge. It suits me fine for now, but I’d describe it as a great bit of hardware, coupled with acceptable in-watch software, but with a dire proprietary web interface and mobile app. I can’t export my GPS tracks to the real-world Google Maps, and I can’t sync with the Apple Fitness app.

My next tracker will likely be an Apple Watch, which will “just work” with iPhone, iPad and Mac. And, of course, the Apple stuff all works with Apple Pay: Oh yes, there’s another business where early pioneers are falling by the wayside and Apple… well, you get my drift.

What market?

The thing with electric cars is that they might be a neat idea, but there’s no market for them yet. No, there really isn’t. There might be a few hybrid engines knocking around the roads, and battery-driven things that can go all the way to the shops before they need recharging. And the odd prototype might even be capable of competing with petrol cars in limited situations. But the proper mature market, the one that will test the viability of the car makers themselves, is still some years away.

Is Apple really working on electric cars? Is it in cahoots with car maker BMW and battery specialist Samsung as rumours suggest? Who knows? But if it is, we’d better remember that Apple has huge amounts of cash to invest in its research, and it’s a cash pile that’s growing ever higher by the day. And Apple won’t enter a market until the market is ready for it.

Will Elon Musk live to regret his “Tesla Graveyard” quip? We’ll see.

The post Will Apple Inc. Beat Tesla Motors Inc In The Electric Car Market? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Alan Oscroft has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of Apple. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

On the condition that Rare Earth and Bacanora’s Sonora lithium project in Northern Mexico reaches certain performance milestones during the next two years, Tesla will buy lithium hydroxide to feed the manufacturing of batteries at its Gigafactory in Nevada.

One of the conditions attached to the deal will be that the Sonora project has to be able to produce lithium hydroxide in accordance with the parameters determined by Tesla. 

The deal between Rare Earth, Bacanora and Tesla will last for five years, starting from when Tesla places its first order. There’s an option to extend the contract for a further five years. 

Commenting on the deal, Rare Earth Chairman David Lenigas said:

“The selection of the Sonora lithium project as one of the lithium suppliers to the Tesla Gigafactory is a landmark transaction that will support the development and commercialisation of the Sonora lithium project. This key supply agreement with Tesla will hopefully be the first of a number of potential lithium off-take partners for the Sonora lithium project…”

A big deal

There’s no doubt that this deal between Rare Earth, the company’s partners, and Tesla is a big deal. 

Tesla Motors designs and manufactures premium electric vehicles, which have gained a reputation for being the best electric cars in the world. Tesla’s newest model, the P85D, an all-wheel-drive version of the battery-powered of the company’s Model S car, has recently earned a 103 out of a possible 100 in an evaluation by Consumer Reports magazine, setting a new standard for comfort, quality, reliability and overall perfection. 

And to meet the rising demand for its vehicles Tesla is building a $5bn Gigafactory in Nevada, which will be able to supply enough batteries to meet the projected demand for Tesla’s vehicles. Along with strategic partners such as Panasonic, the Gigafactory will help reduce the cost of manufacturing batteries by around 30%. 

Tesla’s Model S uses around 7,000 lithium-ion batteries, and Tesla is planning to produce 500,000 cars per year in the latter half of this decade. So, the company needs a reliable lithium supplier to feed production at its Gigafactory. The factory is set to commence production during 2017 and reach full capacity by 2020. 

A long way to go

A deal with Tesla is a game-changing development for Rare Earth, but the company still has a lot to do before the contract translates into revenue. For example, today’s press release warned that:

“…the Sonora Lithium Project Partners will need to design and construct a suitable mining and processing operation. This will require the Sonora Lithium Project Partners to secure significant financing through debt and/or equity.”

What’s more:

“Bacanora and REM will be pursuing next steps to raise finances in order to achieve this goal. There can be no assurance that the conditions to supply product under the Supply Agreement will be met or that the agreement will prove to be economic.”

In other words, while Rare Earth and Bacanora may have a provisional agreement with Tesla, there’s no guarantee that the partnership will register any economic benefit from the deal. 

The post Rare Earth Minerals PLC Signs Supply Contract With Tesla Motors Inc. appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Rupert Hargreaves has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.