What caused this recent surge? Why did the stock price fall in the first place? And should I be adding this business to my growth portfolio? 

Micro Focus’s land-sliding share price

Micro Focus is a software and technology company. It serves over 40,000 customers worldwide and provides software solutions designed to assist in operating digital infrastructure. This includes application delivery, cyber-security, and AI-driven analytics. It currently has a portfolio of over 300 products that suit the needs of various industries, including pharmaceuticals, aerospace, and telecommunications.

This vast collection of products has expanded over time, thanks to a series of strategic acquisitions. And at one point, Micro Focus was the UK’s largest technology company. So what went wrong?

Acquisitive growth strategies are risky and Micro Focus learned the hard way. In 2017 it completed the acquisition of Hewlett Packard Enterprise’s software business for $8.8bn. Unfortunately, the deal, which was supposed to propel Micro Focus into a new growth era, turned into a disaster.

The integration process was not as seamless as initially predicted and led to an additional $960m of exceptional expenses. What’s worse, since acquiring the business, total revenue has been declining at an alarming rate. Needless to say, this isn’t good news and appears to be the primary catalyst for Micro Focus’s collapsing share price. But is the company making a comeback?

Reasons to be cheerful

To fix the problems introduced with the Hewlett acquisition, the management team initiated a turnaround plan. Recently this has seemed to be having a positive effect. While total revenue is still falling, Micro Focus has slowed the fall faster than expected by analysts.

The firm reported a massive $2.97bn loss for 2020. However, $2.8bn of that was a goodwill impairment charge, confirming that it overpaid for the Hewlett acquisition. This is a one-time expense, and if its effects are ignored, the company is at a similar level of underlying profitability as 2019.

What’s more, its cash conversion ratio has increased from 0.95 to 1.13, indicating that internal investments are generating higher cash flows.

This is good news. I feel. And it makes the recent boost to Micro Focus’s share price understandable.

The bottom line

Overall, I think the worst might have passed, and it looks like the firm is finally getting back on track. Therefore, I believe the Micro Focus share price can continue climbing over the long term.

But there is still a problem that has yet to be resolved — its debt. Today, the market capitalisation of Micro Focus is around £1.7bn. But its total debt sits closer to £4.9bn courtesy of the Hewlett acquisition. While the next loan maturity isn’t due until June 2024, that is still a massive bill that the company might struggle to pay in its current state.

And so, for now, I’m going to wait and see how Micro Focus performs in 2021. Therefore, I’m not adding the stock to my portfolio today.

The post Can the Micro Focus share price keep climbing? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Zaven Boyrazian does not own shares in Micro Focus. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Micro Focus. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

However, a rise in US bond yields has caused a large-scale tech stock sell-off. Rising yields are a key indicator of inflation, which erodes the future value of company earnings.

Though this may cause concern for investors, I’m taking advantage of cheaper share prices to top up on three US tech stocks I already hold.

#1. Palantir Technologies: data analytics

Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) specialises in data gathering and analytics. Its share price peaked at $39 in January 2021, up from $9 in October 2020.

The company offers three different data services, Gotham for governments, Foundry for corporate firms, and Apollo, which manages the two. Its Gotham government contracts provide a stable long-term income. In 2020 the company saw 47% revenue growth to $1.1bn, with 2021 forecasts expecting a similar figure.

However, the current price-to-book (P/B) ratio is around 28, signalling this stock could be overvalued. This is a risk for any investor buying now. For context US tech stock Microsoft trades on of P/B ratio of around 13. However, data collection is only going to accelerate in coming years, as the world increasingly shifts towards technological dependence. Therefore, I expect this stock to have a strong future and will buy more.

#2. NIO: Chinese electric travel

NIO (NYSE: NIO) is a Chinese electric car manufacturer. Its share price surged over 1,100% in 2020. Though the shares are down, this US-listed tech stock does boast some encouraging numbers. One example is the 113% year-on-year increase in production in 2020. It also has a much lower P/B ratio of 13.4, compared to industry leader Tesla’s 28.3. This indicates the current share price could be undervalued comparative to the industry giant.

However, if this US tech stock wants to become a front runner in the electric vehicle industry it will have to fend off some fierce competition, which is a risk that can’t be ignored. Ford has pledged $11bn for electric vehicle research from 2018-2022 and General Motors has set aside as even larger $27bn.

However, as a current investor I’m bullish about this US tech stock’s future growth. I’ll be buying more shares for my portfolio.

#3. Jumia Technologies: African e-commerce

Often referred to as “the Amazon of Africa”, Jumia Technologies (NYSE: JMIA) is a Nigerian e-commerce company. After its IPO in April 2019, this stock suffered some huge cash flow issues with operating losses exceeding revenues. However, throughout 2020 its share price exploded from just under $3, to peak at $65 per share in early February 2021.

With Africa’s lack of infrastructure, e-commerce has been largely overlooked as a viable business plan. Google owner Alphabet and Facebook are two US tech stocks that have announced plans to provide all of Sub-Saharan Africa with internet connections. If these projects are successful, I feel it would put Jumia in a great spot. Jumia’s conservative $4bn market cap also offers room for encouraging upside potential. I’m bullish about this US tech stock’s potential and, again, I’m going to add to my existing holding.

The post Why I’m buying these 3 US tech stocks today appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Dylan Hood owns shares in Jumia Technologies, Palantir Technologies, and NIO. Suzanne Frey, an executive at Alphabet, is a member of The Motley Fool’s board of directors. Randi Zuckerberg, a former director of market development and spokeswoman for Facebook and sister to its CEO, Mark Zuckerberg, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Alphabet (A shares), Facebook, and NIO Inc. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of Palantir Technologies Inc. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Luckily, I have more than two decades until I need to retire and the country’s robust financial markets offer plenty of opportunities to expand my wealth over time. With that in mind, here’s how I’d invest my money today to achieve a 100-fold return within 20 years. 

The strategy

Multiplying an investment 100 times over is unimaginably difficult. In fact, most investments never even crack the tenfold threshold. So, how do I hope to achieve my admittedly ambitious target? By focusing on steady growth stocks with long-term prospects. 

I’ll need a company with high margins, a durable competitive advantage and an annual growth rate of over 25.9% to reach my target within 20 years. I also need to be careful to avoid volatile or unpredictable businesses that can leave me with heavy losses over this period. 

My best bet is on the seemingly boring sector of enterprise software. These companies are not as flashy as the young tech start-ups, but they do have patented technology that companies rely on and are willing to pay hefty subscriptions for over many years. Here are my top two picks.

Kainos Group

Belfast-based software company Kainos Group (LSE:KNOS) has a track record of stunning performance. Between listing in July 2015 and July 2019, the stock quadrupled. That implies an annual growth rate of roughly 41.4%. 

However, the stock has plunged since July and is now down by roughly a quarter. In my opinion, that opens up a significant buying opportunity for long-term investors. 

The company’s clientele includes government institutions such as the NHS, the Cabinet Office, Home Office, DVLA and Department for Transport, along with major corporations like Prudential, HP, Netflix and Diageo.

Kainos has a 15.4% net margin, a backlog of orders on the book and a robust balance sheet. Net profit and revenue have both compounded at a rate greater than 26% since 2013. It’s also a robust dividend stock, with a yield of 1.85% and dividend coverage of 1.5.  

It fits the profile of a steadily expanding critical software provider perfectly, which is why it makes my list. 

Softcat

Another similar compound growth machine is Softcat (LSE: SCT). The Marlow-based technology company has been around since the 1990s, but only listed on the stock market in 2015. Since then, the shares have more than tripled in value. 

The company’s software solutions allow companies to manage their digital work spaces, maintain their data in the cloud, protect their operations from cyber attacks and analyse data on their business operations to inform critical decisions. 

It’s a lucrative business with plenty of clients. More than half of the company’s clients are small and medium-sized businesses that have come to rely on its services. But the company also serves public sector institutions such as Dumfries & Galloway Council and major corporations like McLaren. 

Customer satisfaction has been reported at 97%, while the company has just reported 52 consecutive quarters of year-on-year growth. Revenue, gross profit and operating profit expanded by between 29% and 36% over the past year alone. 

Bottom line

These two growth stocks should be enough to multiply my wealth many times over, if not make me a millionaire in two decades. 

The post How I’d invest £10K today for £1m in 20 years appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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VisheshR has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK owns shares of and has recommended Netflix. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Diageo, Kainos, Prudential, and Softcat. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

A small-cap diamond in the rough

Instead, with decades to go before my own retirement needs, I’d look towards companies with high growth potential like software provider Microgen (LSE: MCGN). The company sells two types of software, one that is used by wealth managers for back-office functions and the other that is used by finance departments for a variety of functions.

The company’s growth is being driven by Microgen branching out into serving new industries, designing new programmes to deepen its relationship with customers, and a general increase in regulatory requirements that leads businesses to pay for specialised software from industry experts rather than doing things in-house.

The company’s half-year results released this morning show the positive effects of these changes as revenue for the period jumped 23% on a reported basis to £34.9m with organic growth of 11%. Adjusted operating profits rose at a slower clip by 12% to £7.4m. But as the company moves towards generating more of its revenue from high-margin recurring sales, there’s plenty of potential for greater profit growth.

Microgen’s shares aren’t cheap at 21 times forward earnings, but with high growth potential, an attractive business model and cash on hand, I reckon this isn’t a ridiculous price to pay.

An exciting new IPO 

Another software provider that I believe has long-term potential is newly-public Avast (LSE: AVST). The company may well be familiar to readers as it’s the largest provider of consumer-facing anti-virus software.

While most of its 435m users only use the free barebones anti-virus software, plenty of consumers and small businesses pay for its product. Over just the past three years, the group’s revenue has ballooned from $251m to $652m thanks to organic growth and acquisitions. Investors will also like that recurring revenue made up 88% of group sales in 2017, allowing management to comfortably pour considerable sums into marketing and R&D budgets that should support long-term growth.

As the importance of cybersecurity awareness rises among consumers and businesses, the group has a clear growth trajectory, albeit with plenty of competitors. However, its market leadership should be a huge competitive advantage over the long term through high consumer brand awareness and substantial financial firepower.

I like Avast’s long-term potential, but as a relatively new IPO I’m also happy to let the company report a few quarters of results before diving in and buying shares. But with considerable growth prospects, a high degree of insider ownership and proven ability to turn a profit, it’s definitely higher on my watchlist than the FTSE 100.

The post Two stocks I’d buy for my retirement accounts instead of the FTSE 100 appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Ian Pierce has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

SUSE

Looking ahead, however, it’s important to realise that there’s more to Micro Focus than its HPE business. One key reason why I think there’s significant upside to its shares is its SUSE product portfolio, which has been delivering sustainable and profitable growth. SUSE is a developer of open source software, providing software-defined infrastructure and application delivery solutions.

I believe the potential of this fast growing business is being overlooked due to the uncertainty surrounding its integration of HPE. Considering SUSE is seeing robust double-digit revenue growth, if things go to plan the division could become a major driver of growth for the company.

Meanwhile, management insists that the fundamental thesis of the HPE software acquisition remains intact. And in a sign of confidence towards the firm’s turnaround prospects, five board members have bought nearly £700,000 worth of shares in the week following its trading update. It’s always reassuring to see the board show faith in the company’s outlook, especially since executives and directors are intimately acquainted with the health of the company.

Valuations

Shares in Micro Focus have now lost just over two-thirds of their value since peaking in November last year, while valuations have fallen to historic lows. The company is now trading at just 7.9 times its adjusted earnings last year, which implies the stock is in deep-value territory.

Although nothing is guaranteed, I’d be surprised if it was still trading at these levels in a year from now. Sure, investor sentiment won’t bounce back straight away and there may be further disruption from its HPE integration, but in the long run markets are value-driven.

Another turnaround play?

Looking elsewhere, public transport operator FirstGroup (LSE: FGP) could be another turnaround play. Shares in the bus and rail operator have lost nearly 40% of their value over the past 12 months and currently trade at a mere 6.6 times its forecast earnings this year.

While it still faces some serious challenges, most notably the continued demand weakness in its UK and US bus markets, it is making good progress in a number of areas too. A serious effort is being made to fix its UK bus division, with a strategy to increase efficiencies and maximise patronage expected to result in improved margins and bottom-line growth.

The financial performance of its UK rail business has also been better than expected, leading to a substantial improvement in cash flow generation for the group. Looking ahead, things look sanguine for its rail division, as FirstGroup seems set to keep its lucrative Great Western rail franchise until 2024.

High debt pile

On the downside, dividends are still elusive as the firm grapples with its high debt pile. Although net debt fell by 21% in the six months to 30 September 2017, it stood at £1.18bn, or around 1.7 times EBITDA.

There’s also a lot of uncertainty surrounding its near-term earnings outlook. A 1% decline in adjusted earnings for the 12 months to March 2018 is currently anticipated by City analysts, following intensifying airline competition on its long-haul Greyhound routes and extremely challenging weather conditions this past winter.

The post Why shares in Micro Focus International plc could bounce back appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Jack Tang has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Micro Focus. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Carving a niche

First up is Ideagen (LSE: IDEA), an information management software company. It is a serious player in highly regulated industries, with a particular focus on GRC (Governance, Risk and Compliance) and Content and Clinical solutions within the Life Sciences, Aviation and Financial sectors.

And while this puts in competition with some of the big players in industry like IBM, Oracle and SAP, Ideagen’s focus on its core markets and complete information lifecycle solutions has earned it a reliable customer base that includes many big blue-chip names, such as BAE Systems, Emirates, Royal Dutch Shell and the European Central Bank.

Although its shares are up a staggering 62% over the past 52-weeks, they have come off a bit in recent weeks, which could mean that this may be a good time to step in.

The company is set to announce its full-year results on 18 July, but in a pre-close trading update, Ideagen said it expected earnings to be in line with market expectations, with organic revenue growth of approximately 10%.

City analysts expect Ideagen to punch growth to the tune of 14% for the year to 30 April 2017, with a further 28% increase anticipated for this year. These estimates suggest shares in the company currently trade at an expected P/E of 28, with a forward P/E of 21.9 on this year’s expected earnings.

Structural growth

Another company worth considering in the same industry is Microgen (LSE: MCGN). Shares in it are up 71% year-to-date, following a strong financial performance in 2016 and news of significant new contract wins over the past year. For the 2016 full year, Microgen reported overall revenue growth of 35% to £43m, as adjusted earnings-per-share (EPS) increased by 34% to 12.3p.

Looking ahead, I reckon Microgen has a couple things going for it. First, a growing number of companies increasingly realise that they pretty much have to invest more in financial management applications in order to modernise their finance IT infrastructure and address increasingly strict regulatory reporting requirements. This should drive structural growth in the market, with Microgen’s recent strong run of new contract gains proving there’s a significant place for niche players as the market expands.

Second, the company is increasing investment to develop additional specialised financial management software applications as new opportunities are identified. There’s room for expansion as it diversifies to different parts of the asset and governance spectrum and its acquisition-led growth strategy could help it to strengthen its position in the financial services and wealth management software market.

In the near term, City analysts expect Microgen’s bottom line to grow by 3% this year, with a further increase of 13% in 2018. This leaves shares in the company trading at 25.1 times its expected earnings this year, and 22.2 times its expected earnings in 2018.

The post Why I’d buy these 2 rising tech stocks appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Jack Tang has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Great time for small oilies?

The rising price of oil is making American oil shale and fracking operations look attractive again, and prices reaching the $50 per barrel level have helped push Pantheon Resources (LSE: PANR) shares upwards. Priced at 186p today, Pantheon shares have soared a stunning 680% in just 12 months!

The company, operating in East Texas, told us in its latest update that planned fracking is underway at its VOS#1 well and that drilling at its VOBM#2H well has commenced, together comprising the company’s fully-funded 2016 programme. That “fully funded” bit is crucial, and with the successful completion of a $30m share placing in March, Pantheon isn’t facing the liquidity pressure crippling some other small explorers. In fact, it’s forecast to generate profits in the year to June 2017, after a modest loss expected for this year.

As always, oil explorers like this are almost impossible to value at this stage. But with Pantheon shares on a P/E multiple of 37.5 for its first year of profit in 2017, if its wells are as productive as hoped and if the price of oil keeps on up, there could be more to come.

Banking on gold

Another commodity recovery, that of gold, is behind the 245% rise in Trans-Siberian Gold (LSE: TSG) shares over the past year. At approximately $1,240 per ounce, the shiny stuff is a long way up from its start-of-year low of around $1,050, and that’s geared up the Trans-Siberian share price to 38p.

Interest rates remaining low for longer than many had hoped have helped whet investors’ appetites for gold, and the likely economic turmoil that a UK EU exit (which would surely have adverse effects way beyond these shores) would cause will have sent many in the direction of safety.

The trouble is, even though Trans-Siberian shares are on low P/E valuations, the company’s cost of production has been variable. The cost of sales of $712 per ounce of gold recorded for the first half last year was 44% lower than the previous year, which is good, but such volatility can work both ways. If costs rise again and gold prices fall, profits could be squeezed.

Queuing for profits

My third is Accesso Technology (LSE: ACSO), a company designing and supplying virtual queuing systems for amusement parks and similar venues. Accesso, previously known as Lo-Q, has been a growth success over the past few years, with a 127% share price rise in 12 months adding to earlier rises to provide a 640% gain over five years.

The downside for me, though, is that the shares appear to be fully valued against future growth expectations. Accesso’s results announcement for 2015 includes details of continuing new contract wins, with Blackpool Pleasure Beach and the One World Observatory in New York among them.

But we’re looking at a P/E of 42.5 based on this year’s forecasts, dropping only to 35.2 for 2017, and PEG ratios in excess of the 0.7 or less that growth investors typically favour. It’s not one for me right now.

The post Can Pantheon Resources plc (+680%), Trans-Siberian Gold plc (+245%) and Accesso Technology Group plc (+127%) keep on soaring? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Alan Oscroft has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Pessimism priced in

The thing is, in these tough times when the final extent of banking penalties for past misbehaviour is still an unknown, I’m really not so much interested in this year’s dividend as in future ones — and I’m encouraged by Barclays’ longer-term expectations to “pay out a significant proportion of earnings in dividends to shareholders over time“.

The 3p per share that Barclays intends to pay this year and next would be covered 5.6 times by forecast 2016 earnings and 7.6 times on 2017 predictions, which is massively over-covered in comparison to long-term requirements — even if Barclays aimed for longer-term cover of two times, which would be above the likely sector average, we’d be looking at yields getting up towards 8% or so.

That’s largely because the share price has taken a pummelling, losing 40% over the past 12 months to 145p. That puts Barclays on a forward P/E of only nine for this year, dropping as low as six on 2017 forecasts — and to me that means the current share valuation has far more pessimism built in than is warranted. And I see Barclays shares now as one of the best dividend bargains for 2020 and beyond.

Building profits

The housebuilding and construction sector has been the big success of the past few years, with Galliford Try (LSE: GFRD) a shining light. We’ve seen year on year of double-digit rises in EPS with two more forecast, and that’s helped boost the share price by 235% in five years — though a 24% fall back since September last year has left us with a forward P/E of under 11, dropping to nine on 2017 expectations.

That alone sounds like bargain territory, but the big attraction is Galliford Try’s dividends. They’ve been galloping ahead, and it was only the soaring share price that kept last year’s yield down to 3.9%. The year saw a 28% rise in the annual payment, with the board stressing its “progressive and sustainable dividend policy” and telling us it now aims to maintain dividend cover at 1.5 times rather than its previous more cautious 1.7 times.

That bodes well for the yield of 5.6% forecast for this year, and the 7% on the cards for 2017, which would be covered sightly more than 1.5 times by forecast earnings.

Calling customers

Who’s Netcall (LSE: NET), you may well ask. Netcall produces telephone and data services for call centres and customer engagement, and it’s used by healthcare and public-sector organizations as well as the private sector. After a few years of very strong earning growth, we saw EPS fall back by 4% last year and there’s a further drop forecast for this year. That’s taken the shine of the share price a little, and despite a five-year rise of 184% to 49p, there’s been a 7% drop in the past 12 months.

But what I really like about Netcall is that it is generating oodles of cash. At the interim stage in December, net cash had risen to £15.2m, boosted by £1.82m in operating cashflow in the period. Oh, and there’s no debt.

With more cash than it needs to invest in its latest cloud computing developments, the firm is embarking on “an enhanced three-year dividend programme“, leading to a forecast dividend yield of 6.1% this year followed by 7.8% next.

The post Are Barclays PLC, Galliford Try plc And Netcall plc Among The Best Dividend Payers Out There? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Alan Oscroft has no position in any shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Barclays. We Fools don't all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.