Investors are aware of the devastation the pandemic caused to the aviation industry. With flights grounded for nearly two years, airline earnings fell dramatically. As a result, International Airlines Group (LSE: IAG) shares fell over 73% in the three months between February 2020 and May 2020. 

However, thanks to excellent third-quarter results this year and improving airline traffic, I think IAG shares could be a bargain option for my portfolio. Investor interest has surged over the last month, causing it to jump over 26%. Here I will look at its pros and cons to see if it would be wise for me to invest in the firm before 2023.

Excellent results

Looking at the Q3 report, it is easy to see the reasons behind IAG shares’ positive momentum. The company saw year-on-year revenue growth skyrocket 367% to €1.2bn compared to Q3 2021 when the company lost €452m.  

In the first nine months of 2022, revenue from passenger ticket sales jumped nearly 350% to €14bn compared to the same period in 2021. This points to a healthier airline sector that is inching close to pre-pandemic traffic levels. 

In fact, the board said in the report that the recovery in Q3 puts the industry ahead of 2019 levels in terms of leisure travel. IAG is on target to hit 87% of 2019’s passenger capacity in Q4 and 78% across 2022. 

Can IAG shares handle big fluctuations?

While the recovery has been strong, there are also growing concerns the company will have to address in the coming months. Rising fuel prices and mounting debt are two areas most travel and transport companies are grappling with at the moment. 

IAG’s total net debt currently stands at €11.05bn, down 5% from the same period in 2021. While it is positive that the company is reducing this figure, it is still sizable. 

However, travel and tourism are expected to recover further as more Asian tourism markets open up. Most travel analysts expect flying hours in 2023 to be substantially better than in 2022. While this could further boost earnings and offset the debt, another big concern is the cost of fuel. 

Throughout 2022, oil prices have remained high. But this trend could be reversing already, according to a recent World Bank report. After surging 60% this year, analysts expect oil barrel prices to drop at least 11% in 2023. While this is significantly higher than 2019’s average of $60, large companies will figure out ways to offset costs. 

Also, this FTSE 100 firm currently has a sizable cash reserve valued at €9.3bn. I think this will help the firm navigate fuel price fluctuations better and also price out competitors in negotiations, provided travel continues to recover. 

This is why I think IAG shares have the potential to continue this run if external factors remain favourable. I am bullish on the firm but the uncertainty surrounding fuel prices makes me slightly vary. The aviation firm is now on top of my watchlist and I will look to make an investment if Q4 results maintain current growth trends.

The post Up 26% in a month! Here’s why I think IAG shares could still be a bargain appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

More reading

• Up 47% in a year! Now see what the booming IAG share price could be worth in 12 months
• 2 cheap FTSE 100 stocks that have P/E ratios below 10
• What might Middle Eastern peace mean for the IAG share price?
• Up 119% but with a P/E of just 6.6% – what’s going on with the IAG share price?
• 3 UK stocks to consider snapping up if the stock market crashes this month

Suraj Radhakrishnan has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

The airline industry has had a tough time since the onset of the pandemic. With global airline traffic coming to a near standstill, much of the sector found itself plunged into heavy debt. This was the case for IAG (LSE: IAG), which saw its revenues collapse and debts mount. Since then, things have drastically improved. However, IAG shares are still down 33% year to date, and down 33% over a 12-month period. I am using this fall to load up on cheap shares!

Why the shares have crashed

Inflation has been wreaking havoc with markets, and rising interest rates are making things worse for stocks. This is because as rates rise, investors are able to earn a higher risk-free rate, and hence pull their money out of speculative assets like stocks.

In addition to this, rising inflation is fuelling a cost-of-living crisis. This has led to strikes across several industries, including the airline business. IAG has had to battle against this threat in recent months, and it seems to have tainted investors’ taste for the stock.

Ready to take flight

One of the reasons I think IAG shares look so enticing is due to their recent results. For the six months to 30 June 2022, the group turned a profit of €293m. For context, it reported a loss of almost €1bn in 2021, signaling a strong turn of events.

The group’s cash position also increased substantially. At just over €9bn, it marks a €1.2bn increase from December 2021 levels. While cash has been increasing, debts have also shrunk by around €700m. These factors have largely been driven by the increase in bookings for the second half of the year.

The increase in bookings is a wider point worth considering. IAG itself reported that passenger capacity rose to 78% of 2019 levels in Q2 2022, up from 65% in Q1. More widely, it is estimated that 3.5bn customers will board flights in 2022, up from 1.8bn in 2020. The increase in footfall should vastly improve the group’s top line and filter down into increasing profits.

The outlook of the group also remains largely positive. Operating profit is expected to be improved for Q3 2022 and the whole year is expected to be profitable. Net cash flow predictions also signal positivity.

Finally, at just 106p, I think the value of this company really shines through. Before the pandemic, the group’s stock was sitting comfortably above the 400p level. While past returns are not indicative of future performance, it does signal to me that investors have been willing to pay that much IAG. As passenger footfall increases, cash increases and debts fall, I don’t see any reason why investors wouldn’t pay that much again in the future.

The verdict

At 106p, I think the long-term value of the stock outweighs the shorter-term risks of strikes and inflation. At The Motley Fool, we are long-term investors, and as such, I am willing to look past the short-term issues that IAG may face and add a position to my portfolio at the current price.

The post Forget savings! I am buying this FTSE 100 stock to triple my money appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

More reading

• Up 47% in a year! Now see what the booming IAG share price could be worth in 12 months
• 2 cheap FTSE 100 stocks that have P/E ratios below 10
• What might Middle Eastern peace mean for the IAG share price?
• Up 119% but with a P/E of just 6.6% – what’s going on with the IAG share price?
• 3 UK stocks to consider snapping up if the stock market crashes this month

Dylan Hood has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Since I last wrote about British Airways owner IAG (LSE: IAG), the share price has seen an 11% recovery. After a generally positive set of H1 results, I could be tempted into buying the shares in order to capitalise on the potential upside.

IAG shows promise

IAG followed through on its Q1 guidance of achieving profitability in the second quarter. Q2 was, in fact, the group’s first profitable quarter since the start of the pandemic, with an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of 2.5c.

It was also pleasing to see revenue per available seat kilometres (ASK) and passenger numbers edge closer to pre-pandemic levels. Aside from that, IAG managed to improve its financial position slightly, reducing its debt by €688m, while receiving positive free cash flow.

Therefore, the view of achieving operating profitability by the end of the year is starting to become a realistic possibility. All signs are pointing towards an increasingly promising rest of the year for the FTSE 100 firm.

Striking deals

Apart from the much improved financial performance of the company, IAG also managed to quash fears of future strikes. The company managed to strike a deal with 16,000 workers for a 13% pay rise this year. This should alleviate fears of last-minute flight cancellations, at least for the time being.

Nonetheless, not all is as smooth cruising as it may seem. This is because Heathrow Airport has opted to extend its cap on passenger numbers until the end of October, with no more than 100,000 travellers per day, leading to cancellations of tens of thousands of flights. As Heathrow is the hub of IAG’s most profitable airline, I’m expecting this to impact H2 results.

As a result, CEO Luis Gallego revised the company’s outlook downwards. IAG now expects capacity to hit 78% of 2019 levels, as compared to the previous 80% that IAG had expected. From this, North Atlantic capacity (IAG’s most profitable routes) is now expected to hit 92% of 2019 levels in Q3, compared to the previous guidance of 95%.

Having reservations

While the future outlook for IAG still remains rather promising, I have my reservations regarding its potential upside. Although passenger demand still remains strong, I’m fearful that it’s only a matter of time before sky-high inflation, and a potential recession on the cards, starts hitting consumers harder.

Furthermore, IAG’s long-haul recovery continues to lag that of shorter trips. The continued travel restrictions in large parts of Asia, specifically China, is hindering its growth potential. And with China sticking to its zero-Covid policy, this avenue doesn’t look likely to recover any time soon. Business travel also still continues to lag, only hitting 60% of its pre-pandemic volume. Moreover, as the winter months approach, I’m expecting the number of holiday travellers to start winding down.

Even though IAG shares have the potential to grow plenty, my optimism is hindered by a cloudy economic environment. Overall costs still remain high and, most importantly, the company still has a mountain of debt to pay off, which is expected to increase going into the year end. For that reason, I won’t be investing in IAG shares.

The post Should I be buying IAG shares today? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

More reading

• Up 47% in a year! Now see what the booming IAG share price could be worth in 12 months
• 2 cheap FTSE 100 stocks that have P/E ratios below 10
• What might Middle Eastern peace mean for the IAG share price?
• Up 119% but with a P/E of just 6.6% – what’s going on with the IAG share price?
• 3 UK stocks to consider snapping up if the stock market crashes this month

John Choong has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

The decline won’t seem to stop for IAG (LSE: IAG) shares. With the share price sliding to a one-year low, I might be tempted to see it as a buying opportunity. Nonetheless, given the state of its finances, I know it would be a high-risk, high-reward investment.

Terminal situation

IAG shares aren’t just trading at its one-year low. It’s also close to its five-year low of £0.91. What started off as a baggage system error last month has now evolved into something much worse. This is because staff shortages at airports have led to massive travel disruptions for British Airways, the biggest airline at IAG.

The airline had initially cancelled 650 flights in July, impacting over a 100,000 passengers. But to make matters worse, Britain’s biggest airline said today that another 10,3000 short-haul flights will be axed until the end of October. This is in part due to British Airways staff striking during the busiest period for the airline. Most of its check-in staff had received a 10% pay cut during the pandemic, but are yet to get their compensation fully reinstated.

This isn’t good news for IAG as it gets squeezed from both sides. Mass flight cancellations could result in the group falling short of its top line guidance. On the other hand, bigger paycheques to check-in staff will squeeze its bottom line even further.

The easy way out?

Sky-high inflation is starting take a toll on consumers’ wallets. Additionally, the Bank of England expects inflation to peak at 11% later this year. As such, consumers’ discretionary spending is expected to decline. Given that fares from airlines at IAG don’t exactly scream bargain, customers are more likely to turn towards budget airlines such as easyJet and Wizz Air. While its competitors also face a similar number of cancellations, they offer cheaper fares on average. This brings better value proposition to customers.

Delays expected for IAG

When IAG unveiled its Q1 results, it mentioned its aspirations to achieve operating profitability by Q2. However, given the current state of affairs, I view this to be highly unlikely. And even if it does manage to achieve such a feat, I don’t expect it to last for the rest of the year. Therefore, I anticipate delays on its route back to profitability.

More worryingly though, IAG has a mountain of debt (€19.6bn) to deal with. It doesn’t help either when its debt isn’t covered by its current operating cash flow nor its cash and equivalents (€7.9bn). If the FTSE 100 firm can’t deliver on its repayments, it’ll have to risk refinancing its debt, making repayments more expensive. This will likely sour investor sentiment further.

IAG shares are a in precarious position at the moment. There doesn’t seem to be light at the end of the tunnel and its balance sheet is in tatters. Moreover, its share price seems to be only going in one direction for the time being. Nevertheless, a report from Bloomberg stated that British Airways is nearing a deal with unions, which could mitigate staffing shortages and turn the airline’s fortunes around. That being said, I still won’t be buying IAG shares for my portfolio as I view it as too high of a risk. Instead, I’ll be investing in other companies that have better fundamentals.

The post Should I buy IAG shares if the price drops below £1? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

More reading

• Up 47% in a year! Now see what the booming IAG share price could be worth in 12 months
• 2 cheap FTSE 100 stocks that have P/E ratios below 10
• What might Middle Eastern peace mean for the IAG share price?
• Up 119% but with a P/E of just 6.6% – what’s going on with the IAG share price?
• 3 UK stocks to consider snapping up if the stock market crashes this month

John Choong has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

International Consolidated Airlines Group (LSE: IAG) shares are currently trading at £1.15, and are down 25% this year. Given the current economic landscape, its stock could be in further trouble, and here’s why.

Excess baggage

From Covid, to inflation, and now airport disruptions, the travel industry can’t seem to catch a break, and this week has been one of the more disruptive ones. Staff shortages, technical difficulties, and rail strikes have served up a perfect dish of chaos for IAG.

On Monday, Heathrow Airport suffered a widespread problem with its baggage system. As a result, Heathrow requested airlines to cancel 10% of their flights from Terminals 2 and 3. Although IAG’s main hub is located at Terminal 5, this still affected the limited number of IAG services at T2 and T3.

To make matters worse, Gatwick Airport capped its daily operations to 825 flights a day in July, and 850 flights a day in August, due to staff shortages. This has led to delays and flight cancellations, with easyJet suffering the brunt of it. Nevertheless, I doubt IAG is spared from this as I’m expecting a number of its services to be impacted as well.

Three strikes and you’re out

Three weeks ago, British Airways check-in staff threatened to strike in July. This is because their pay has yet to return to pre-pandemic levels after salary cuts made during the pandemic. With the deadline fast approaching on 27 June, IAG is stuck between a rock and a hard place.

For one, the board could reinstate workers’ pay, but doing so would impact its already fine margins. To mitigate this, British Airways would have to increase its ticket prices, which might dampen demand and extend its route back to profitability.

On the other hand, not doing anything could be equally devastating. A lack of check-in staff might lead to further delays and cancellations, which wouldn’t be good for IAG shares. Seeing that British Airways is the group’s biggest revenue driver, a strike could impact IAG’s top line quite substantially.

Delayed departure

In its last trading update, IAG mentioned that it expects to achieve operating profitability by Q2. However, this seems to be increasingly unlikely. Apart from potentially having to fork out higher wages or lose millions in revenue, the FTSE 100 firm still has to deal with high oil prices.

Since its Q1 update, jet fuel prices have hit fresh new highs of $175 per barrel, which isn’t going to do its bottom line any favours. Additionally, the Consumer Price Index in May continued to hit 40-year highs at 9.1%. With fears of an impending recession, this is most likely going to dissipate the travel tailwind and send IAG shares even lower.

More importantly, IAG’s balance sheet is in a terrible state. Its debt-to-equity ratio sits at a staggering 2,318%, while its short-term assets can’t cover its short-term liabilities. Not to mention, its last reported free cash flow sits at -€885m. This rings alarm bells of a company that’s in big trouble. Therefore, I won’t be investing in IAG shares. Instead, I’ll be parking my money in other growth stocks that have better financials.

The post Could IAG shares be in further trouble? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

More reading

• Up 47% in a year! Now see what the booming IAG share price could be worth in 12 months
• 2 cheap FTSE 100 stocks that have P/E ratios below 10
• What might Middle Eastern peace mean for the IAG share price?
• Up 119% but with a P/E of just 6.6% – what’s going on with the IAG share price?
• 3 UK stocks to consider snapping up if the stock market crashes this month

John Choong has no position in any of the shares mentioned at the time of writing. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Up and away?

I would have expected the IAG share price to lift off after it reported a generally positive set of Q1 results last month. The group managed to recover a substantial amount of its losses to €731m from €1.1bn a year ago. Total revenue before exceptional items was up by a whopping 485% year on year (Y/Y).

In addition to that, total passenger numbers saw an increase to 14.4m, alongside a 72% load factor (A measure of how full a plane is). Most importantly, IAG expects its operating results to be profitable from Q2 onwards, which is great news for investors. So, why’s the stock stalling then?

Sky’s not the limit

The negative sentiment surrounding IAG shares can be attributed to passengers being warned of major delays this week. Workers are carrying out a ballot over a potential pay strike. Check-in staff at Heathrow airport said that the company has refused to reverse a 10% pay cut imposed on them during the pandemic. Meanwhile, management pay has been restored to pre-pandemic levels.

Trade Unite, the trade union representing these staff disclosed that the industrial action ballot covers around 500 staff, and is expected to close on 27 June. An unfavourable settlement would most probably lead to strikes in July, which is IAG’s busiest period of the year. With a bottleneck of queues already building up outside several UK airports, this could very well hinder IAG’s route to profitability in the short to medium-term.

To make matters worse, the group is also facing shareholder pressure over a decision to decrease CEO Luis Gallego’s share compensation. IAG’s annual general meeting is fast approaching, and shareholders are not very keen on awarding its chief executive after the company posted enormous losses during the pandemic.

Flying blind

Nonetheless, do the positive figures from the group’s Q1 report make IAG shares investible for me? I think not. The conglomerate’s balance sheet still remains undesirable, as its staggering amount of debt is not well covered by operating cash flow. Despite IAG reducing its debt levels by 0.6% last quarter, a potential slowdown in customers may undo its recovery.

I expect travel tailwinds to slow down in the coming quarters as economic headwinds start to take shape. Inflation in April came in at 9%, and with further interest rate hikes expected, I am doubtful that passenger numbers will continue recovering at the same pace.

Although the lifting of lockdowns in China should see passenger numbers rise in Asia, oil prices have also risen. Oil is now hovering around $120 per barrel and will definitely have a negative impact on IAG’s bottom line. This sparks fresh concerns as to whether the company’s guidance of achieving operating profitability by Q2 is still a realistic possibility. As such, I will not be looking to invest in the IAG shares. Instead, I’ll be looking to purchase other shares that could benefit my portfolio with more financial security.

The post The IAG share price is down 15%. Should I buy? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

More reading

• Up 47% in a year! Now see what the booming IAG share price could be worth in 12 months
• 2 cheap FTSE 100 stocks that have P/E ratios below 10
• What might Middle Eastern peace mean for the IAG share price?
• Up 119% but with a P/E of just 6.6% – what’s going on with the IAG share price?
• 3 UK stocks to consider snapping up if the stock market crashes this month

John Choong has no position in any of the shares mentioned at the time of writing. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Lloyds

As Lloyds (LSE: LLOY) continues its share buyback programme, the British bank has seen its stock price increase by 3% this week. A hawkish Bank of England has been stoking uncertainty surrounding Lloyds’ future. This arguably led to a number of director dealings happening this week.

Most notably, Lloyds’ CFO William Chalmers and Chief of Staff Janet Pope purchased a large number of shares. However, Group Corporate Affairs Director Andrew Walton and Scottish Widows Chief Executive Antonio Lorenzo also sold a substantial number of shares.

• Name: William Chalmers (Chief Financial Officer)
• Nature of transaction: DRIP shares
• Date of transaction: 20 May 2022
• Amount purchased: 168,865 @ £0.44
• Total value: £74,409.46

• Name: Antonio Lorenzo (Chief Executive, Scottish Widows and Group Director, Insurance and Wealth)
• Nature of transaction: DRIP shares
• Date of transaction: 19 May 2022
• Amount purchased: 884 @ £0.43
• Total value: £383.86

• Name: Antonio Lorenzo (Chief Executive, Scottish Widows and Group Director, Insurance and Wealth)
• Nature of transaction: Disposal of shares
• Date of transaction: 20 May 2022
• Amount sold: 250,000 @ £0.44
• Total value: £110,062.50

• Name: Vim Maru (Group Director, Retail)
• Nature of transaction: DRIP shares
• Date of transaction: 19 May 2022
• Amount purchased: 31 @ £0.43
• Total value: £13.46

• Name: Janet Pope (Chief of Staff and Group Director, Sustainable Business)
• Nature of transaction: DRIP shares
• Date of transaction: 19 May 2022 and 20 May 2022
• Amount purchased: 85,633 @ £0.44
• Total value: £37,735.00

• Name: Stephen Shelley (Chief Risk Officer)
• Nature of transaction: DRIP shares
• Date of transaction: 19 May 2022
• Amount purchased: 1,563 @ £0.43
• Total value: £678.70

• Name: Andrew Walton (Group Corporate Affairs Director)
• Nature of transaction: Disposal of shares
• Date of transaction: 19 May 2022
• Amount sold: 184,216 @ £0.43
• Total value: £79,986.68

IAG

The IAG (LSE: IAG) share price is up about 4% this week as the group announced a share buyback programme on Tuesday. Apart from that, a number of big director dealings occurred at IAG. Chairman and Iberia CEO Javier Sanchez-Prieto and CFO Nicholas Cadbury made the headlines. The latter had already received 1,473,207 shares as a part of IAG’s executive share plan, which will be vested in three tranches annually. Despite that, Cadbury still purchased more shares.

• Name: Javier Sanchez-Prieto (Chairman and CEO Iberia)
• Nature of transaction: Transfer of shares from one nominee account to another nominee account with no change of beneficial ownership
• Date of transaction: 23 May 2022
• Amount transferred: 181,014 @ Nil
• Total value: N/A

• Name: Nicholas Cadbury (Chief Financial Officer)
• Nature of transaction: Acquisition of shares
• Date of transaction: 24 May 2022
• Amount transferred: 254,979 @ £1.23
• Total value: £312,604.25

SSE

SSE (LSE: SSE) reported a decent set of numbers in its FY22 earnings this week. The firm generated profits of £1.5bn last year, and expects to make even more this year from high energy prices. But a windfall tax from the British government soured investor sentiment, sending the SSE share price down by almost 10%. Still, outgoing non-executive director Dame Angela Strank acquired a respectable number of shares.

• Name: Dame Angela Strank (Non-Executive Director)
• Nature of transaction: Acquisition of shares
• Date of transaction: 25 May 2022
• Amount transferred: 483 @ £18.49
• Total value: £8,929.14

Types of shares in a SIP

To provide context, there are a few types of shares within a company’s share incentive plan (SIP). A SIP is an employee plan for companies within the UK to flexibly award equity to employees. Publicly listed companies normally exercise this option because it’s tax-efficient for both the employer and its employees.

In this article’s instance, Lloyds’ director dealings used the dividends they received on SIP shares to reinvest into further Lloyds shares. It should be noted, though, that dividend shares must normally be held in the trust for at least three years to get full tax relief. On the other hand, IAG’s CFO received free shares as part of his compensation package.

The post Director dealings: Lloyds, IAG, SSE appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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John Choong has no position in any of the shares mentioned at the time of writing. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Lloyds Banking Group. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Whenever a stock falls this drastically, it is always good to ask if it is completely justified or if there are opportunities at hand.

Expected turbulence

The British Airways owner fell 8% last Friday after reporting a pre-tax £916m loss in Q1. And it has continued to struggle this week. A brief flare-up of the Omicron variant reduced IAG’s passenger numbers and damaged revenue in this period. Despite a loss having been expected for the group, the results still underperformed analysts’ expectations and the IAG share price fell.

Alongside this previous poor performance, investors have a few concerns regarding IAG’s future outlook. It has hedged less than its peers against the price of fuel, which leaves it less protected against rising prices. This could squeeze profit margins for the company, while current staffing shortages look to continue to disrupt future operations.

Alongside this, inflation has raised the cost of living for consumers. People have to prioritise paying energy and food bills so luxuries such as holiday travel could be lower on their must-do lists and IAG’s passenger numbers may fall. Inflation will also increase the operating costs for the company and eat further into margins.

Glimmers of hope?

Despite the cloudy future for IAG, there is some hope that passenger numbers may rebound in the summer of 2022. There seem to be signs of suppressed demand for holidays as travellers hope to enjoy a summer free of major travel restrictions.

IAG has already seen a rise in passenger capacity. In Q1 it was 65% of 2019 capacity, up from 58% in Q4, 2021. There are expectations for this to rise to 80% in Q2, 85% in Q3 and 90% in Q4. However, the IAG share price doesn’t reflect this optimism. And considering the risk of inflation lowering consumer demand, I believe these projections could be a little too optimistic.

What am I doing?

While I recognise the fall in price could be appealing, I believe there are some considerations I should take into account that make this airline stock less attractive. I consider management to have overlooked the risks of inflation when forecasting the rise in passenger numbers and I don’t think the rebound will be as speedy as expected.

Alongside this, IAG has a high €11.6bn debt load. As debt repayments become more expensive, less cash will be available to invest in opportunities that could improve long-term returns. The dividend also doesn’t look to be returning any time soon to sweeten the deal for me.

To me, the risks seem to outweigh the possible benefits from the fall in the IAG share price so I do not think the share price is about to take off. I am resisting adding this airline stock to my portfolio for now.

The post Down 35%, is the IAG share price ready to take off? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

More reading

• Up 47% in a year! Now see what the booming IAG share price could be worth in 12 months
• 2 cheap FTSE 100 stocks that have P/E ratios below 10
• What might Middle Eastern peace mean for the IAG share price?
• Up 119% but with a P/E of just 6.6% – what’s going on with the IAG share price?
• 3 UK stocks to consider snapping up if the stock market crashes this month

Finlay Blair has no position in any of the shares mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

Higher altitude expected

So, why is the IAG share price down then? The group reported an operating loss of €731m. This was much better than the €1.1bn loss it incurred a year ago after all. While this is a 32% improvement, the figure still fell below analysts’ expectations of €548m. Additionally, total passengers also fell below expectations of 15.3m. The group reported a figure of 14.4m instead. Finally, worries of staff absenteeism and IAG having to fork out additional capital to hire workers soured investor sentiment. Therefore, the share price dipped from expectations not being met.

Transit-ory

Pushing the negatives aside, there were lots of positives to takeaway. IAG is in a transitory period as it gears up towards profitability, and the numbers don’t lie. For one, total revenue before exceptional items was up by a whopping 485% year on year (Y/Y). This beat analysts’ expectations of €3.37bn as the final figure was €3.43bn.

Load factor, a measure of how full a plane is, also saw a monumental increase. The metric jumped to 72%, which was also above consensus of 69%. Nonetheless, this was still 41% down from pre-pandemic levels, as travel to Asia continues to be hampered from Covid restrictions.

Even though the conglomerate’s balance sheet still remains undesirable, it’s worth noting that IAG reduced its debt levels by 0.6%. On top of that, it also improved its liquidity position. Cash and equivalents came in at €8.2bn, a €241m improvement from last quarter.

Sky-high inflation

The main surprise for me was the guidance provided in the trading statement. I was amazed to see that IAG expects its operating results to be profitable from Q2 onwards. In light of the recent guidance provided by many of its other competitors, this could be possible. As such, the airline group may very well be in for a windfall of profits in the short term.

Nevertheless, I am still cautious about the optimistic IAG guidance. This is because, despite industry tailwinds of travel recovering, consumers continue to face a cost of living crisis, with the worst yet to come. The Bank of England recently raised its bank rate to 1% and predicts a contraction in the British economy towards the tail end of the year. Given that the majority of the firm’s customers fly on British Airways, a contraction could lead to a substantial hit to IAG’s customer base.

To conclude, although IAG remains upbeat about its prospects in achieving profitability for the year, I think the path ahead is a cloudy one. I believe inflation will eat into discretionary spending eventually. It’s only a matter of time before the travel industry has to hit the brakes once again. With that being said, I don’t think the IAG share price will recover to its highs of £4.50.

The post Can the IAG share price recover from its slump? appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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John Choong has no position in any of the shares mentioned at the time of writing. The Motley Fool UK has no position in any of the shares mentioned. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.

An airline stock ready to return to the skies

International Consolidated Airlines Group (LSE:IAG) experienced considerable turbulence during the pandemic. The IAG share price took a journey from 668p in January 2020 to penny stock levels, before eventually arriving at 140p today.

The outlook for IAG shares appears rosy to me, with the company likely to benefit from continued relaxations in travel restrictions. According to IATA, 38 of the world’s top 50 travel markets are now open to vaccinated travellers without quarantine — up from 28 just a month ago.

Indeed, this summer, the airline aims to fill 85%-90% of its 2019 capacity. CEO Luis Gallego foresees “significant profits” for 2022. This would mark a positive change in IAG’s fortunes. Last year, the company only managed to cut its pre-tax losses (from £7.8bn to £3.5bn).

At present, I view IAG as one of the cheapest FTSE 100 stocks. Granted, the emergence of a concerning new Covid-19 variant or escalating conflict in Ukraine could derail this hypothesis. Nonetheless, supported by improving financials and a recovering travel market, IAG stock looks like a good long-term buy for me.

A FTSE 100 dividend stock

Asset manager and insurer M&G (LSE:MNG) has one of the highest dividend yields of any FTSE 100 stock at 8.25%. Since it demerged from Prudential in 2019, M&G has delivered strong pre-tax operating profits, namely £788m in 2020 and £721m in 2021.

Other recent achievements include generating capital of £2.8bn in two years and bringing the total value of assets under management to £370bn.

If M&G maintains this performance, I see potential for capital growth for shareholders, in addition to passive income. In my view, this combination makes it a good FTSE 100 stock to beat inflation — currently running at 6.2%.

The firm is not focused on growing its insurance division, which acts as a cash flow bedrock for the business. This could undermine the company’s defensive credentials over time, but I still see value in the M&G share price and bumper dividends.

A Footsie share that consistently beats the index

Drinks giant Diageo (LSE:DGE) has been one of the best FTSE 100 stocks to own over the past five years. Beyond its index-beating returns, Diageo offers investors passive income from its current 2% dividend yield as a bonus.

Diageo delivered an increase in net sales from £11.75bn to £12.73bn for 2021. The company also boosted operating profit to £3.73bn – a 74.6% annual improvement.

Underpinned by intellectual property in an enviable list of brands from Guinness to Smirnoff and a free cash flow in excess of £3bn, the Diageo share price seems to go from strength to strength.

As consumers become more health conscious and possibly reduce their alcohol consumption, there are potential headwinds for Diageo stock. I would still buy it at present, however. My reading of the company’s financials is that demand looks robust.

The post 3 cheap FTSE 100 stocks I’d buy with a spare £1,000 appeared first on The Twelfth Magpie.

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Charlie Carman does not own shares in any of the companies mentioned. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Diageo and Prudential. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors.