HSBC (LSE: HSBA) shares have risen more than 200% in five years. Normally, that would be enough to crush a stock’s dividend yield.
Yet the Asia-focused bank still offers investors a yield of more than 4%.
That might seem surprising, but it reflects just how much the bank’s earnings and shareholder payouts have grown alongside the share price. The question now is whether that momentum can continue.
Why hasn’t the yield disappeared?
Normally, when a share price rises sharply, the dividend yield falls. But the company’s recent performance has been unusual because shareholder payouts have increased alongside the share price.
Last year alone, the bank announced total dividends of $0.75 per share and $6bn of share buybacks. That followed the sale of its Canadian business, which also funded a special dividend worth $0.21 per share, in 2024.
In fact, management highlighted that dividends, buybacks and a 49% rise in the share price combined to generate a total shareholder return of more than 57% during 2025.
Put simply, HSBC hasn’t just rewarded investors through capital gains. It’s also been returning enormous amounts of cash. As a result, the dividend yield has remained surprisingly resilient despite the stock’s remarkable rise.
Can shareholder returns remain attractive?
Some of the recent cash returns won’t be repeated. The special dividend linked to the Canadian business sale was a one-off event, while buybacks have been paused temporarily as capital levels are rebuilt following the Hang Seng transaction.
I don’t think that necessarily weakens the investment case.
What matters more is whether the underlying business can keep generating enough profit to support future distributions. A return on tangible equity of at least 17% through 2028 suggests profitability should remain strong. At the same time, recent upgrades to net interest income guidance point to earnings holding up better than many investors expected.
The bank also intends to maintain a dividend payout ratio of 50%, which provides some visibility over future income.
To me, that’s the more important story. The next phase may depend less on exceptional buybacks and special dividends, and more on the ability of the core business to keep producing surplus capital year after year.
Risks to consider
The biggest risk, in my view, is that future shareholder returns may depend more heavily on earnings growth than they have in recent years.
The bank recently highlighted increased uncertainty across the global economy and raised its expected credit loss guidance for 2026. While profitability remains strong, a weaker economic backdrop could lead to higher loan losses and put pressure on earnings.
There are also broader geopolitical risks to consider. A significant portion of profits comes from Asia, meaning any prolonged slowdown in regional growth or disruption to trade flows could weigh on performance.
Finally, while the dividend currently looks well supported, the pause in buybacks is a reminder that capital returns are not guaranteed. If economic conditions deteriorate, preserving capital could take priority over returning cash to shareholders.
Nevertheless, while returns are unlikely to match the extraordinary gains of the past five years, HSBC’s financial strength suggests it can remain an attractive income stock over the longer term. For that reason, I think it remains one to consider — but not without caution.
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Andrew Mackie owns shares in HSBC.
